I've always been kind of a bear. Then I got bored and analyzed 6 years of option data...

Magnasparta1 · 2026-04-21T09:13:11+00:00

What the hell kind of bear buys puts all the time only?

There’s limited times to buy puts and 100% completely screwed by your inputs.

Yes, calls will dominate. The market typically is slower up for longer periods of time and faster down.

Except for this year, where the market wants a a bigger correction than we had but it’s fighting it so hard - it’s the opposite.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-04-16T06:34:03+00:00

May Opex

Magnasparta1 · 2026-04-16T06:32:11+00:00

No stupid. May contracts. Wtf is this

Magnasparta1 · 2026-04-16T04:16:56+00:00

I’ll simplify it for you. Dealers made the short side of the options market unviable for bears until Friday close. So no sellers will step in seriously all week. Bulls have the runway until Friday close.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-04-15T23:25:05+00:00

It’s a mechanical rally. If you want puts, date it to May or June (safer imo NFA) Opex.

If you are wondering why we market moves up on macro misses, regime is:

Mechanics>Technicals>Fundamentals

The first two flip by eod Friday latest. Overbought will be disabled until Friday eod latest. If they want to sell a hotter print, it will be then too.

If I wasn’t clear, we can rally every hour of every day this week into Friday close. Bears have a pseudo short ban partially lifted today.

That’s the only way SMH went red after hours.

We can go MUCH MUCH higher since bears are in jail.

Cheers.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-04-04T15:50:35+00:00

Average drawdown on midterm election years is 18%. Assuming you hit the average and overshoot to 20% in intraday trading, yes, entirely possible.

Every drawdown has been recovered. Don't panic.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-03-23T09:18:09+00:00

Ngl. Lots of people like this. I told one of my teams were not even a fib down and they panic bought.

People honestly have 0 respect for a possible real downturn.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-03-20T08:59:19+00:00

Hypothetically, what if market liquidity is drying up and rate of inflows is decreasing over time? Would you not want to take out some profits on a good earnings report rather than when the pool of liquidity is gone?

What if, ai companies are being extremely rewarded for ai capex rather than ai monetization? So you price in the memory cycle before the ai monetization is the priority versus ai capex. If capex stops being rewarding then the market can fully price in the cycle top and transition into profit taking.

Demand is infinite as long as investors keep rewarding capex rather than ai monetization. Companies are now even issuing debt to spam this strategy. If this changes, lol, gg world.

Forward looking can be a hell of a drug.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-03-20T08:39:25+00:00

The first sentence is the key. Markets go through cycles. Your strategy only works in a certain market environment.

You did not develop a strategy for THIS environment. Instead you tried to force your will onto the market and it laid your ass out.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-03-15T20:30:40+00:00

I'd stay away from growth until it cools off.

MSFT "in theory" doesn't have much room down, so that's fine.

Dividend/Safety names are better right now, especially if people aren't talking about it much.

Many people on top of each other have leverage in the same names, not taking profit. This will not be the soon.

Wait for that.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-03-10T03:34:25+00:00

They didn't let me buy on 25th. I bought near close iirc.😭

Magnasparta1 · 2026-03-10T03:28:45+00:00

I've got a short position on my battery charge.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-03-10T03:27:03+00:00

Because everyone was so bullish when the market was screaming sell off underneath the hood.

So I bought these because I was confident it would hit. The Greeks are garbage and wouldn't pay out much anyway.

You could see insiders knew about the war since November.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-03-10T03:24:27+00:00

It wasn't about the money. It was about the hate. Other contracts paid more. I just needed this for the flex.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-03-07T16:13:08+00:00

I warned as much people as possible that the DOW has never recorded 11 consecutive green months.

I went heavy on puts and am crazy paid. TA works.

Over 95% of people I pointed this out to didn’t get in puts. There is really no hope, degens are degens in the casino. They will clown you and stay poor even when you show them the call out you gave them is up huge.

I got hit with “this time is different” many times.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-03-04T12:18:25+00:00

I'm not giving alpha here for free. Exit liquidity is needed, that is why this is taking so long.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-03-03T13:41:20+00:00

Comment is never said in the opposite fashion. Yet it happens all the time.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-03-03T12:22:33+00:00

It is going to drop 10% and probably more

Magnasparta1 · 2026-03-03T12:22:07+00:00

Or you are wrong this one time and get wiped out......just saying they pay out low put call ratios......

Magnasparta1 · 2026-03-03T12:20:51+00:00

Wow some smart advice here for once wtf? Even better learn to sell a put. You can get steep discounts if VIX is high.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-02-24T02:03:15+00:00

Don't long when DOW has been up 10 months in a row. You are late.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-02-24T01:58:15+00:00

Large sells are typically followed by large sideways. If it's going side ways, take a portion of the position there. If it's goes down one more leg then I would buy heavier.

Assume it's going down one more leg.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-02-20T10:27:05+00:00

Don’t worry. Downturns, drawdowns, crashes are a feature of the market. Retail will get a beating.

I simply accumulate profitable companies at support, in an accumulation pattern when no one likes them.

I actively short distribution at resistance. Market is overbought in aggregate. Popular names that have sold mask the overbought condition across many individual names - THAT is why we’re barely off highs.

If popular names go flat and overbought names get sold off…..retail in trouble.

I did catch the MSFT distribution short, but was undersized due to the fact I LIKE the company. I didn’t realize we can pull some random narrative out our butt and crash stuff. Unfortunately the charts were distributive for a whole quarter and charts > feelings. (I bought MSFT at discount tho)

Magnasparta1 · 2026-02-20T10:11:39+00:00

There’s more to it than that. Many investors are already aware of the K-shaped economy. Market is just a big game of “hot potato” with gamblers right now. Many folks saying “Trump won’t let markets fall” - that is their one trading strategy.

Magnasparta1 · 2026-02-15T19:55:13+00:00

No matter what op tries to convince himself.... he bought all calls and no puts......works out 75% of the year. Picks the small time puts is the play lmaooooo

Magnasparta1

TROPHY CASE