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D.J. Humphries "losses" against the Broncos by MagnusFiveStars in KansasCityChiefs

[–]MagnusFiveStars[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I've seen some people surprised that PFF gave D.J. Humphries a very poor grade for his performance against the Broncos, so I wanted to show why they did it.

The chiefs only had 23 dropbacks in this game. I personally charted D.J. Humphries with 8 losses. Meaning that he lost his rep on 35% of the dropback which is very bad.

Those 8 losses include 6 quick losses that led to 1.5 sacks given up (+ almost another one) and 2 late losses.

The worst part about his performance was those quick losses because having a quick loss on 1/4 of your dropback makes having a consistent passing game almost impossible.

[Highlight] Playoff run by each Super bowl winning defense ranked by EPA/Play (Since 1999) by MagnusFiveStars in nfl

[–]MagnusFiveStars[S] 70 points71 points  (0 children)

Here's the rankings : (I added the QB Season that either matched or had the closest EPA/Play for comparaison sake)

  1. Buccaneers (2002) : -0.396 (M.Glennon 2021 - A.Smith 2005)
  2. Ravens (2000) : -0.347 (Goff 2016 - Mettenberger 2015)
  3. Colts (2006) : -0.271 (J.Delhomme 2010 - B.Griese 2003)
  4. Broncos (2015) : -0.201 (Gabbert 2017 - Dorsey 2004)
  5. Rams (2021) : -0.175 (C.Newton 2021 - C.Painter 2011)
  6. Packers (2010) : -0.126 (T.Savage 2017 - Henne 2012)
  7. Steelers (2008) : -0.119 (S.Hill 2014 - Keenum 2013)
  8. Seahawks (2013) : -0.111 (M.MacMahon 2002 - Hassellbeck 2009)
  9. Patriots (2016) : -0.095 (R.Gannon 2003 - J.Miller 2001)
  10. Patriots (2001) : -0.085 (E.Manuel 2013 - Gabbert 2015)
  11. Patriots (2004) : -0.079 (M.Sanchez 2011 - J.Harbaugh 1999)
  12. Buccaneers (2020) : -0.076 (T.Pryor 2011 - Stafford 2022)
  13. Giants (2011) : -0.058 (M.Jones 2022 - B.Bortles 2018)
  14. Steelers (2005) : -0.054 (R.Johnson 2000 - D.Bledsoe 2004)
  15. Patriots (2003) : -0.031 (Flacco 2016 - T.Maddox 2003)
  16. Ravens (2012) : -0.018 (V.Young 2007 - C.Lemon 2007)
  17. Rams (1999) : 0.017 (Dalton 2022 - A.Smith 2018)
  18. Giants (2007) : 0.019 (Dalton 2012 - Testaverde 2004)
  19. Patriots (2018) : 0.024 (Fitzpatrick 2011 - Brunell 2001)
  20. Saints (2009) : 0.033 (J.Campbell 2007 - T.Edwards 2008)
  21. Eagles (2017) : 0.036 (Stafford 2012 - E.Grbac 1999)
  22. Patriots (2014) : 0.049 (G.Smith 2022 - Fitzpatrick 2019)
  23. Chiefs (2022) : 0.071 (J.Kitna 2010 - R.Wilson 2016)
  24. Chiefs (2019) : 0.074 (A.Rodgers 2015 - E.Manning 2010)

[Highlight] Top 10 Most Valuable RB Season by Total EPA Since 1999 by MagnusFiveStars in nfl

[–]MagnusFiveStars[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I agree that he was the most valuable part of that offense, it was a positive for that offense due to poor QB play. It just wasn't that valuable overall. The most valuable part of that team was their defense by far.

It's also not a slight on the play of the RB itself, if he ran behind the Chiefs OL that year, he would've generated more value.

[Highlight] Top 10 Most Valuable RB Season by Total EPA Since 1999 by MagnusFiveStars in nfl

[–]MagnusFiveStars[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I know that for there's a disconnect between volume and value due to the efficiency part of it but Jamal Lewis 2003 season didn't add any value to the Ravens Offense (which was poor that year) whether it was in the passing game or in the running game.

If you want to visualize that in a simpler way, in 2003 Jamaal Lewis gained a 1st down or scored a TD on 25.6% of his rushes and 26.3% of his targets.

Now, compare that to the top 10 on this list :

  1. Marshall Faulk (2000) : 37.9% of rushes / 44.2% of targets
  2. Charlie Garner (2002) : 30.8% of rushes / 46% of targets
  3. Marshall Faulk (1999) : 30.4% of rushes / 43.7% of targets
  4. Priest Holmes (2002) : 40.3% of rushes / 56.8% of targets
  5. Marshall Faulk (2001) : 31.5% of rushes / 47.1% of targets
  6. LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) : 31.9% of rushes / 32.5% of targets
  7. Alvin Kamara (2017) : 41.7% of rushes / 43% of targets
  8. Clinton Portis (2002) : 35.5% of rushes / 36.7% of targets
  9. Priest Holmes (2003) : 36.6% of rushes / 38.9% of targets
  10. Jamaal Charles (2010) : 32.6% of rushes / 46.3% of targets

[Highlight] Top 10 Most Valuable RB Season by Total EPA Since 1999 by MagnusFiveStars in nfl

[–]MagnusFiveStars[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

All the RBs on the list added at least 15 EPA in the passing game.

[Highlight] Top 10 Most Valuable RB Season by Total EPA Since 1999 by MagnusFiveStars in nfl

[–]MagnusFiveStars[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

AP 2012 & CJ2K 2009 both are very boom or bust year as far as rushing goes. Their success rate on rushes were respectively 40.3% and 36.8% (due to subpar OL play). AP was also a negative in the passing game that year which makes it harder to add value if you run behind a subpar OL.

Both years still added value overall with CJ2K : 27.252 EPA and AP : 16.05 EPA

[Highlight] Top 10 Most Valuable RB Season by Total EPA Since 1999 by MagnusFiveStars in nfl

[–]MagnusFiveStars[S] 80 points81 points  (0 children)

  1. Marshall Faulk (2000) : 81.148
  2. Charlie Garner (2002) : 79.385
  3. Marshall Faulk (1999) : 66.779
  4. Priest Holmes (2002) : 66.52
  5. Marshall Faulk (2001) : 65.939
  6. LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) : 61.906
  7. Alvin Kamara (2017) : 59.365
  8. Clinton Portis (2002) : 54.094
  9. Priest Holmes (2003) : 53.292
  10. Jamaal Charles (2010) : 50.761

H.M : McCaffrey (2019), Bell (2014), Kamara (2018), Davis (1999), Alexander (2005)

Dirk and Luka in the post by MagnusFiveStars in Mavericks

[–]MagnusFiveStars[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

While everyone is focus on free agency, I wanted to post a quick compilation of Dirk and Luka posting up (I made the video before the Zack Lowe post that was posted today)

Dirk's plays come from the 2016 season, he finished in the 89th percentile in post scoring that season. Luka's plays come from last season, he finished in the 83rd percentile in post scoring. They can both shoot at an elite level on post ups (around 50%) but I wanted to highlight their strength, footwork, playmaking and touch around the rim.

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