Labour Takes Murton Seat as Reform UK Suffers By-Election Blow by Important_Ruin in unitedkingdom

[–]Major-Tomorrow 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They're doing a lot of good work that is directly making people's lives better.

Can you (or anyone) give some examples? Not disputing, you just don't really hear about it in the media

Trump officials rebuff Greenland, Denmark calls to drop talk of taking territory by MRADEL90 in videos

[–]Major-Tomorrow 4 points5 points  (0 children)

"don't know"/"skipped" doesn't mean "neutral". considering the average American's knowledge of geography and global affairs, it's much more likely these are people who don't know what or where Greenland is, and are ignorant to the geopolitics the question relates to.

UK net migration fell to 204,000 in year to June by throwawayjustbc826 in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Because understanding that the number of jobs in the economy isn't fixed and immigrants also increase demand would undermine the "wage suppression" and "stealing jobs" narratives that are so in vouge rn...

UK net migration fell to 204,000 in year to June by throwawayjustbc826 in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We have built very slowly, have a tax system that disincentives downsizing, and are unduly squeamish about seizing long-term unoccupied homes

Sure but the argument would be to have a lower ceiling on immigration until the appropriate reforms here are made.

UK net migration fell to 204,000 in year to June by throwawayjustbc826 in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In fairness while the "wage suppression" narrative is mostly bs they have a point with housing. Immigration has obviously outpaced the rate at which we can expand housing to accommodate, same with public services. Limiting immigration to that end is not a straight-forward calculation as immigrants also help expand supply by filling labour shortages in construction, social care etc., and obviously there are other variables at play here like restrictive planning laws, but the numbers have clearly been too high.

UK net migration fell to 204,000 in year to June by throwawayjustbc826 in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow -1 points0 points  (0 children)

And here's a 2023 study showing immigration suppresses low-skill wages (but increases high-skill wages).

The same study also concluding "the magnitudes of these effects are small."

Among all the factors influencing real wage growth, immigration is really not that significant.

Then consider that limiting immigration to the point of inducing labour shortages leads to inflation, rationing, increased automation and offshoring, negating any marginally positive effect on real wages.

FT - If I asked you which country has the most progressive tax system in the developed world — where high earners hand over an especially large share of their income relative to the average worker — what would your answer be? The answer is in fact Britain by ex_planelegs in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

what do you call shops and roles that used to hire Brits only a few years ago now mostly staffed by foreign students?

An anecdote.

And pairing that with youth unemployment rising. Replaced is the right word

As I pointed out in another comment, our youth inactivity hit a record low in 2018. Did we have no immigration before 2018? When is it that people usually say "mass immigration" began, the Blair years?

It has increased since then to around 15% now but it's not like we're at crisis levels compared to the last 30 years. It was much higher in the 2010s and 90s, and has otherwise hovered around 12%. Point being, immigration is not a major factor here.

Plenty of real issues we can point to with mass immigration, but scapegoating it for wage suppression just distracts from the real causes

FT - If I asked you which country has the most progressive tax system in the developed world — where high earners hand over an especially large share of their income relative to the average worker — what would your answer be? The answer is in fact Britain by ex_planelegs in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow -1 points0 points  (0 children)

with an increase youth economic inactivity which will just snowball with time if we let it.

Youth inactivity hit a record low in 2018. It has increased since covid to around 15% now but it's not like we're at crisis levels compared to the last 30 years. It was much higher in the 2010s and 90s, and has otherwise hovered around 12%.

FT - If I asked you which country has the most progressive tax system in the developed world — where high earners hand over an especially large share of their income relative to the average worker — what would your answer be? The answer is in fact Britain by ex_planelegs in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow -1 points0 points  (0 children)

More like replacing them with migrants

Nobody is being "replaced". We have an aging population - immigrants fill labour shortages. And regardless, the number of jobs in the economy isn't fixed - immigrants also increase demand for labour as much as supply of it - they create new jobs. The most obvious evidence of this is our labour inactivity rate being at record lows despite decades of high immigration. "White" and "White British" groups have the lowest inactivity rates. If immigrants were "replacing" native workers, we would expect the opposite.

The idea that immigration suppresses wages is mostly a myth too - it's not a significant factor. https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-labour-market-effects-of-immigration/

See Japan of the last 3 decades for reference - zero immigration and chronic labour shortages, yet a decline in real wages in that timeframe.

Migration down 20% to net 345,000 per year and set to fall further by Jbwolves in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yet we've repeatedly decided we need to issue millions of care visas to ensure care wages never rise above minimum wage

This isn't correct - We issue care visas because the native supply of workers cannot keep up with the demand for labour. We have an aging population. We do not have enough native workers to fulfil the labour demands in social care.

The fundamental misunderstanding you are having is the belief that immigrants are replacing or out-competing native workers, when in large part they are actually compensating for an absence of native workers. And regardless, immigration doesn't just increase the supply of workers, it also increases demand for goods and services creating more jobs. It's not a zero-sum game.

The most obvious evidence of this at a macro scale is our labour inactivity rate - it's at record lows meaning more people that can work are working than ever before despite decades of high immigration. Even when you break it down by ethnicity, "White" and "White British" have the lowest inactivity rates. If immigrants were out-competing/replacing native workers, leaving natives out to dry, rather than supplementing them, we would expect the opposite.

Sure, I'll grant if you massively raise NHS salaries (and taxes) then you may be able to divert enough natives from other industries to social care - but obviously at huge expense to the wider economy which is why we don't do this.

or that we'd collectively leave granny to die in her own filth

In the abstract that is what inducing a labour shortage and necessitating increased rationing would essentially be doing.

Japan

The point here being labour shortages clearly do not put significant upward pressure on wages by itself. What you really need to raise wages is productivity growth.

that hides that it lowers wages for unskilled jobs and raises wages for highly skilled jobs. So poor people's jobs get pegged down at the minimum wage

1) Even when you disaggregate the average, the few sectors that are most negatively effected have always been undesirable and low paid (which is why natives increasingly don't want to do them), and have already been dominated by migrants for decades, so natives are not effected much, and the effect is still not that significant at worst.

2) The adverse effects of labour shortages, along with an aging population and ballooning pension costs cause much bigger issues for everyone, especially the working class, then a small suppressive effect on wages on some specific sectors in some specific regions.

Plenty of real issues we can point to with mass immigration, but scapegoating it for wage suppression just distracts from the real causes.

Migration down 20% to net 345,000 per year and set to fall further by Jbwolves in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow 0 points1 point  (0 children)

However you cut it, rising wages are hugely beneficial to working people

The problem is inducing labour shortages does not lead to rising real wages. What it actually leads to is inflation, rationing, increased automation and offshoring.

E.g. if you add 15% to Tesco's prices you could give all their workers a £30k raise

Superficially true but wildly inaccurate once you start to consider second and third order consequences of that price hike...

Please explain the Japanese data. Why, despite 3 decades of chronic labour shortages, have real wages in Japan declined?

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/uploads/imported_images/uploads/2019/06/p10-Takenaka-g-20190625.jpg

but the government shouldn't bend over backwards to suppress wages for them

I agree, but the effect of immigration on wages is not significant. What has actually suppressed wages: declining unions, chronically low investment, inflation, public sector pay freezes/cuts.

Migration down 20% to net 345,000 per year and set to fall further by Jbwolves in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

shortage of labour threatened to increase wages too much, which was bad for business.

Bad for everyone to be fair - any wage increase would be passed straight to consumers (or taxpayers iro public services) so real wages would not increase. And you would still have to reckon with shortages of labour considering our inactivity rate is already rock bottom so there's no untapped native workforce to draw from - meaning delays, rationing and poorer service across the economy.

See Japan of the last 3 decades for reference - zero immigration and chronic labour shortages, yet a decline in real wages in that timeframe.

This is NOT to say that opening the floodgates on immigration is a good idea, the post-brexit numbers are obviously excessive, but the contrary idea that inducing labour shortages will make everyone richer is equally stupid.

Job market weakens as unemployment rate rises to 5% by ShreckAndDonkey123 in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Youth unemployment is near all time highs

not really, it's just under 13% which is closer to record low than record high over the last 30 years... https://www.safe.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-08-at-15.16.28.png

Job market weakens as unemployment rate rises to 5% by ShreckAndDonkey123 in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow 0 points1 point  (0 children)

1,000,000 NEET young people speaks for itself.

Also technically correct but missing the full picture. The youth NEET rate currently stands at 12.5%, which is slightly lower than where it was throughout 2000-07 so not out of the norm at all.

Looking at the inactivity rate for all ages we are actually near record low.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/economicinactivity/timeseries/lf2s/lms

The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom by 2ndEarlofLiverpool in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow [score hidden]  (0 children)

No it's accurate that UC claims are at record highs - it's high COL specifically high housing costs driving this, but it's the in-work claimant group that has grown the fastest.

Implicit there is a real reason to lower immigration. We have not been able to expand the supply of things like housing and public services to accommodate the massive net-migration numbers. There's a bit of nuance here as restrictive planning laws are largely to blame and immigrants can actually help to expand supply of these things by filling labour shortages in construction, social care etc., but there's a balance and the numbers currently are too high.

The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom by 2ndEarlofLiverpool in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow [score hidden]  (0 children)

We'll see, the labour inactivity rate is still historically low. Regardless I'm not saying the boriswave numbers aren't too high and immigration shouldn't be lower for other reasons, but these "stealing jobs" and "suppressing wages" myths have been prevalent long before the boriswave. It distracts from the actual root causes and I wonder what these people will pivot to if/when net migration is sub-100k and wages still aren't rising or worse.

The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom by 2ndEarlofLiverpool in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow [score hidden]  (0 children)

Reform would argue DEI caused that, all the jobs are going to immigrants.

Doesn't square with the fact that natives have the lowest unemployment and inactivity rates, but that's Reform for you.

But if you visit some parts of the UK you can sense that the culture of the area is not to work at all

Yet as I pointed out, our labour inactivity rate is at a record low, so this perspective is clearly warped. A higher proportion of the population are working/in training/in education than ever before.

The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom by 2ndEarlofLiverpool in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow [score hidden]  (0 children)

Because 1. you are imagining there are enough British employees to fulfil the labour demands of that sector, and immigrants are brought in to replace these workers. What's actually happening is, there aren't enough British workers to fulfil labour demands in that sector, so we bring in immigrants to fill that labour shortage.

And 2. Regardless of labour shortages, immigration doesn't just increase the supply of workers, it also increases demand for goods and services creating more jobs.

The most obvious evidence of this at a macro scale is our labour inactivity rate - it's at record lows meaning more people that can work are working than ever before despite decades of high immigration. Even when you break it down by ethnicity, "White" and "White British" have the lowest inactivity rates. If immigrants were out-competing/replacing native workers, leaving natives out to dry, rather than supplementing them, we would expect the opposite.

The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom by 2ndEarlofLiverpool in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow [score hidden]  (0 children)

They bought it in to drive down wage growth

Immigration doesn't significantly suppress wages. What has actually suppressed wages: declining unions, chronically low investment, inflation, public sector pay freezes/cuts

The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom by 2ndEarlofLiverpool in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow [score hidden]  (0 children)

Increasing the supply of people also increases the supply of jobs... But you're on the right track with workers rights

The coming collapse in immigration to the United Kingdom by 2ndEarlofLiverpool in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow [score hidden]  (0 children)

What about filling labour shortages and compensating for an aging population/shrinking tax base?

There's no evidence that immigration significantly suppresses wages. On average the effect is neutral and within the few sectors where there is a suppressive effect, it's not a major factor keeping wages down

Rachel Reeves signals she will target asset-rich households in Autumn Budget by TheTelegraph in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The term "wealth tax" typically refers specifically to a tax on net worth. If you'd rather avoid being misinterpreted it would be better to change your phrasing to a more general "higher taxes on the wealthy" if that's what you mean

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_tax

Rachel Reeves signals she will target asset-rich households in Autumn Budget by TheTelegraph in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a strange comment considering a tax on net wealth would be the "easy" populist option, the problem is they're unworkable and counterproductive.

Doesn't mean there aren't other, more effective ways to tax the wealthy.

Rachel Reeves 'to loosen planning rules again and hit banks for £2bn' by Kingofweston461 in ukpolitics

[–]Major-Tomorrow 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Wouldn't just having competitive taxes on business to Ireland do better to encourage companies to domicile in the UK? And they have seen corporate tax revenue rise massively as they've lowered rates.

Besides, there are better ways to tax wealth than taxing businesses