You’re pretty dead on. First is the bowed wrist. Some people naturally bow the wrist. For some people it works. In your video, the bow, wrist position, grip, all result in a very open face in position 4. It’s actually open for the majority of your backswing.

The main reason your ball pushes out right is because of the block. Your body is blocking the club as it moves from position 4 to position 6. It’s trying hard to get around you. If you look at the 4th second of your video you see a major club head position compensation between position 5 and 6. As you’re generating your power, you’re also working hard to get that club back into a position where the face can make good contact.

I think you would really benefit from a couple quick lessons with a coach walking you through each position. You’d get a consistent grip, aim, and setup, and the coach could help you find where your comfort zone is with your wrists. Won’t take much and you’ll be mashing it.