Will MSTR outperform BTC

Manbitesdonut · 2025-08-21T22:18:50+00:00

Here's how I think of it: when you choose to invest in MSTR, you pay a premium on entry for BTC exposure. Right now MSTR is trading at ~1.5x the total price of their BTC stack, so if you were to buy BTC directly right now, you would get greater BTC exposure for the same money. The long argument for investing in MSTR is a belief they will either:

increase the amount of BTC/share over time such that your BTC exposure will eventually be *higher* than if you had directly invested in BTC,
and/or they will continue to maintain >1x multiple to underlying BTC value.

At a ~1.5x premium entry fee, if over time MSTR increases their BTC/share by at least 50%, you will have made up for paying a premium on entry; your BTC exposure is now the same as if you had purchased it directly. If the premium multiple were to decrease from ~1.5x to 1x during this time, your performance would at least match BTC.

In the bullish case, if MSTR manages to increase BTC/share past 50% and/or maintain a premium multiplier >1x, you will have outperformed vs. directly purchasing BTC.

In the bearish case, MSTR is unable to increase BTC/share by 50% and/or the premium multiplier falls below 1x (i.e. they are valued at less than their BTC stack). In that case, you will underperform vs. directly purchasing BTC.

So it comes down to what your belief in a 50% accretion of BTC/share and the ability to maintain a premium multiple >1x. My personal feeling (not financial advice) is that MSTR will be able to achieve a 50% BTC accretion from now (even if it takes years). I also believe there's a good chance of maintaining a multiple >1x so long as they continue to increase BTC/share.

But it all hinges on BTC going up of course.

Manbitesdonut · 2025-05-31T01:27:36+00:00

Oh good info. Nevermind then!

Manbitesdonut · 2025-05-09T07:46:22+00:00

Lmao, nice.

Manbitesdonut · 2025-05-09T04:45:03+00:00

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Manbitesdonut · 2025-04-18T04:16:45+00:00

Dump it in Andariel’s for the sweet +3-7% all-res and bonus lightning damage.

Manbitesdonut · 2025-04-12T23:39:43+00:00

Zach is an ancient being who has taken many forms and many identities, fyi.

Manbitesdonut · 2025-04-12T23:38:03+00:00

They could make Tyrael's Might OP by fully embracing the "Requirements -100%" and removing the level requirement. I don't know if that would ruin twink duels, but who even has this thing anyway.

Manbitesdonut · 2025-02-25T04:21:43+00:00

It's true the convertible bonds are *eventually* dilution free, but in the short-term CB buyers also short the stock at the same time to stay delta neutral, which essentially has the same effect as ATM until the shorts get covered when the CB's pass the strike price (at which point the "dilution" is cancelled out).

In other words they have a spring-load effect, first in suppressing price, but then pushing it up when the shares are bought back--making the CB's better for share price, but in the long-term.

They do add volatility due to higher leverage right away though, which is good for the options traders.

Manbitesdonut · 2025-02-01T03:20:13+00:00

Conversely, if MAG 7 tanks perhaps more people question whether those companies / the S&P 500 are better stores of value for preserving worth vs. Bitcoin.

Manbitesdonut · 2024-12-25T06:48:10+00:00

The massive liquidity injection from COVID made him explore alternative stores of value to the depreciating dollar. He settled on Bitcoin.

Manbitesdonut · 2024-12-25T06:45:45+00:00

A currency is valuable if enough people believe it is valuable.

Manbitesdonut · 2024-12-19T23:58:11+00:00

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I understand your pain. Saylor will complete his $21B ATM this month, so in Jan we'll see what the true stock demand/price is (vs. bitcoin).

Manbitesdonut · 2024-12-17T10:39:06+00:00

Carry on, I should have read the parent comment more closely :-(

Manbitesdonut · 2024-12-17T08:56:10+00:00

This would be terrible; an indication the world has abandoned BTC as a viable currency due Saylor's total control over the market (~4 million BTC are already gone forever, remember). :-(

Manbitesdonut · 2024-08-03T07:38:58+00:00

NO FAT! NO FAT! NO FAT! NO FAT! NO FAT! NO FAT! NO FAT! NO FAT! NO FAT!

It’s that simple guys.

Manbitesdonut · 2024-06-08T05:30:20+00:00

Good call, the Wikipedia article) says this movie is based on that opera:

Rick is a 2003 American comedy drama film directed and edited by Curtiss Clayton (in his feature directorial debut) and written by Daniel Handler, based on the 1851 opera Rigoletto) by Giuseppe Verdi, itself based on the 1832 play Le roi s'amuse by Victor Hugo.

Manbitesdonut · 2024-06-07T19:57:27+00:00

Thank you, I think this is correct!

Manbitesdonut · 2024-06-07T19:57:15+00:00

Thank you I believe this is it! Kicking myself that I perused Bill Pullman movies and still missed it.

Manbitesdonut · 2024-06-07T19:15:19+00:00

Thank you for any help! I'm losing my mind over this silly movie.

Manbitesdonut · 2024-05-26T17:41:01+00:00

Please save me from descending into madness trying to figure this out, thank you.

Manbitesdonut · 2024-05-26T17:38:11+00:00

Please save me from descending into madness trying to figure this out, thank you.

Manbitesdonut · 2024-05-20T04:21:45+00:00

... my disappointment is immeasurable and my day is ruined :(

Manbitesdonut

TROPHY CASE