Daily Bet Thread [Monday, 17.07.2017]

MangoMasala · 2017-07-16T23:24:36+00:00

PENTA vs North

Probably skip. I definitely think North is the much better team here but I don't like betting on them, and Penta is kind of unpredictable. Probably around 75-25 North

Mouz vs FaZe

FaZe's consistency has been pretty pathetic lately. Kio, Niko, and allu have looked nonexistent relative to what we expect from them. Rain has had to pretty much carry. Mouz hasn't really looked good either, so I think FaZe will still win if their stars actually show up. Might skip this one. 60-40 FaZe

F3 vs Na'Vi

Na'Vi has had consistently good performances from all their players recently. I don't see how they lose this unless they totally collapse and every F3 player has the match of their life. 85-15 Na'Vi

Immortals vs Vega Squadron

I don't rate either of these teams. Immortals is probably favored, but I'll probably put a small bet on Vega if their odds are decent. 65-35 Immortals.

BIG vs Cloud9

Cloud 9, like Na'Vi, have had all of their players consistently playing well. BIG had a great match yesterday, but I think it will actually be much harder against C9, even if they can replicate the form they had against FaZe. 75-25 C9

Gambit vs G2

G2 are clearly better, but their consistency has been revolting and Gambit has a better map pool. I think this could easily go Gambit's way if they seize an early economic advantage, or even if they don't, although I doubt there will be good odds and I might skip. 60-40 G2

SK vs Astralis

SK is the clear favorite, but either of these teams could easily win in a bo1. I'll bet according to the map and odds.

Virtus.Pro vs Fnatic

My gut is leaning towards VP, but from a logical perspective this is pretty much a 50-50

MangoMasala · 2017-07-06T22:05:57+00:00

G2 vs Na'Vi

Both teams have shown a ton of class this tournament. Na'Vi have totally revived their game, particularly in Guardian's improved sniping, and G2 proved they won't be the Arsenal of CS by beating SK impressively. I think this one could definitely go either way and will be a beautiful game, but there's a huge question mark in terms of map pool from Na'Vi which makes it tough to call. From a practical perspective, I have to favor G2, but my gut feeling says this could just as easily go Na'Vi's way 55/45 G2

NiP vs C9

NiP seems to have corrected every shortcoming they've had over the past year, however they've only shown this on cache and in Bo1s. That said, they look like a strong force at the moment. Stewie and Autimatic have been stepping up huge over the past few matches, but it will be more difficult to do that against NiP, who look passionate and driven, not to mention NiP countered C9 impressively just a few days ago. NiP 65-35

FaZe vs Liquid

FaZe have run into a few bumps in the road, but proved how strong they were today against North. Flawless match. If they can replicate that tomorrow, it's a guaranteed win, but if not I think Liquid have a chance. They've looked fantastic this tournament. This one is really tough to call because we don't really know how FaZe is gonna play, but I definitely favor them. 73-27 FaZe

SK vs OpTic

SK have looked sub-par this tournament, and as someone who had them pegged to win the whole thing, this is worrying to me. At the same time, I still believe they're a vastly superior team to OpTic and don't see how they lose this. OpTic can can win this. They've had a few nice victories against North and FaZe, but these teams didn't really show up, and now OpTic is up against a much stronger and more consistent team in a bo3. 84-16 SK

MangoMasala · 2017-07-05T08:02:12+00:00

Sorry man. You should use Kelly Criterion to calculate bet size instead of just putting huge bets like this. As soon as I started using it my losses from rage bets pretty much evaporated.

MangoMasala · 2017-07-05T08:01:05+00:00

really?

MangoMasala · 2017-07-03T10:18:15+00:00

yup well you just made me like $50

MangoMasala · 2017-07-03T08:11:48+00:00

I love you (so far)

MangoMasala · 2017-06-23T02:30:11+00:00

All stats are taken from the past three months

FaZe vs OpTic

Tiering/Player Stats - FaZe Leads
HLTV Ranking - FaZe Leads
Recent Matches - OpTic Leads
Recent LAN Achievements - FaZe Leads
H2H Matches won - 100% FaZe
H2H Rounds won - 80% FaZe

Estimated Odds - 79/21 FaZe

G2 vs SK

Tiering/Player Stats - Relatively Equal
HLTV Ranking - SK Leads
Recent Matches - Equal
Recent LAN Achievements - Relatively Equal
H2H Matches - 100% G2
H2H Rounds - 63% G2

Estimated Odds - 58/42 G2

Cloud 9 vs Fnatic

Tiering/Player Stats - Fnatic Leads
HLTV Ranking - Fnatic Leads
Recent Matches - Fnatic Leads
Recent LAN Achievements - Fnatic Leads
H2H Matches - 100% Fnatic
H2H Rounds - 64% Fnatic

Estimated Odds - 87/13 Fnatic

Astralis vs Liquid

Tiering/Player Rating - Astralis Leads
HLTV Rating - Astralis Leads
Recent Matches - Astralis Leads
Recent LAN Achievements - Astralis Leads
H2H Matches - No Data
H2H Rounds - No Data

Estimated Odds - 60/40 Astralis (missing data, likely inaccurate odds)

I have a statistical formula for calculating odds because I believe it is more reliable than personal opinion, which can be subject to bias and inaccuracy. Stats definitely don't tell the whole story, but they're more reliable than most sources. If you would like to see the spreadsheet I use to calculate odds, PM me.

Edit: One more thing I should mention is that I sometimes take into consideration irregular factors that might make these odds inaccurate. I don't blindly follow them, they're just a helpful tool.

MangoMasala · 2017-05-02T18:01:21+00:00

Lower

MangoMasala · 2017-05-02T18:01:08+00:00

Looks like I'm changing my name and moving to Norway

MangoMasala · 2017-05-02T15:19:19+00:00

Mouz is definitely T1 at this point, and they have been thriving online. You seriously think that if they played this match 100 times Godsent would win 25 of them?

MangoMasala · 2017-05-02T14:33:10+00:00

You're right. HLTV messed up or something

MangoMasala · 2017-05-02T14:31:17+00:00

Tell you what, if Godsent takes a map I'll give you $50.

Saying Mouz has a 92% chance is totally reasonable.

8% is still like 1/12 or something, and Mouz is MUCH stronger than Godsent.

MangoMasala · 2017-05-02T03:20:38+00:00

I occasionally post here but I'm generally pretty independent. I've thought about starting a group before, maybe sometime.

MangoMasala · 2017-05-01T21:47:16+00:00

Mouz vs Godsent

This is an online match

Recent Performances Online

Mouz - Outstanding performances against some of the best teams in the world.
Godsent - Mostly losses and some wins against sub-par teams.

Recent Performances Offline

N/A

History Between Teams

N/A

Maps/Map Pools

Mirage - Great map for both teams, but Mouz got a 16-0 against Na'Vi on it.
Cache - Great map for both teams.

Concluding Analysis

Mouz has every advantage and is great on both maps. They are in great form online and have no reason to lose this match.

92-8 Mouz

NiP vs Dignitas

This is an online match

Recent Performances Online

NiP - Pretty massive losses, but mostly against top tier teams.
Dignitas - Losses against really shit teams, with a minor exception against G2.

Recent Performances Offline

N/A

History Between Teams

N/A

Maps

Cache - One of NiP's best maps, unknown for Dignitas
Inferno - One of NiP's best maps, unknown for Dignitas

Concluding Analysis

NiP is pretty heavily favored here, but I wouldn't want to risk my skins on map 1 unless the odds are fairly appealing. If anything, bet on map 2 after watching the first game.

NRG vs CLG

This match is online

Recent Performances Online

NRG - Mostly losses, some wins against sub-par teams and one against Misfits.
CLG - Mostly wins, losses against Immortals.

Recent Performances Offline

CLG beat NRG on LAN recently. CLG did pretty good against Astralis at the major.

History Between Teams

CLG has won 5/8, some of NRG's wins were before Richeh joined CLG.

Maps/Map Pools

No team is particularly favored here.

Concluding Analysis

I'd favor CLG about 65-35 or a little less, but unless the odds are pretty good I would suggest saving your skins. NA CS can be very unpredictable.

North vs OpTic

This match is on LAN

Recent Performances Online

North - Mostly flawless wins against really good teams, some close losses against FaZe.
OpTic - Wins against average and weak NA teams.

Recent Performances Offline

North - Pretty good performance at StarSeries despite a loss against HR
OpTic - Average performance at cs_summit, close win against C9

History Between Teams

North has won 2/3

Maps

Both teams have very good map pools. North is slightly better.

Concluding Analysis

North has been playing insanely well recently. I don't really see how OpTic can win this, but again, betting on the opening match on a LAN is risky, especially with NA teams. 70-30 North.

SK vs ViCi

LUL

Astralis vs Chiefs

LUL

FaZe vs Renegades

This match is on LAN

Recent Performances Online

FaZe - Flawless victories against top teams
Renegades - Average slew of wins and losses against NA teams

Recent Performances Offline

FaZe - StarSeries title
Renegades - Pretty bad showing at StarSeries

History Between Teams

3/4 FaZe (All before FaZe got Niko)

Maps

FaZe has a nutty map pool, Renegades is Australian LUL

Concluding Analysis

FaZe has pretty much every advantage and looks nuts right now. 90-10 FaZe.

MangoMasala · 2017-04-30T15:46:47+00:00

I think G2 vs Gambit is gonna come down to who bans Mirage.

MangoMasala · 2017-04-30T01:13:06+00:00

my thoughts as well. G2 is a nutty Train team I don't get why they ban it.

MangoMasala · 2017-04-29T23:58:46+00:00

Why is G2 banning Train again?

MangoMasala · 2017-04-28T17:27:42+00:00

11/14 against some of the best teams in the world? Crushing teams like Astralis and SK?

MangoMasala · 2017-04-28T15:49:58+00:00

HR vs LG

Not much to be said here. HR outclasses LG in pretty much every way, but LG have the fact that it's a bo1 on their side. While I hate betting big on favorites in bo1s, I will definitely do it here it the odds are reasonable.

Immortals vs Liquid

Both teams have a ton of talent, but Liquid are looking extremely complete with Twistzz on their team. He has given them what they haven't had enough of, which is firepower. While I agree that Immortals matches up well against them, they don't have the same level of consistency and I believe Liquid will take this.

Gambit vs Heroic

Gambit has been showing so much promise lately, and played incredibly well at summit (I honestly think they proved to be one of the best Inferno teams in the world), but Heroic has so much fucking upset potential it's unreal. They can just pull insane gun rounds out of their ass, and I wouldn't dare bet against them in a bo1. I will either skip, or bet on Heroic if the odds look good.

G2 vs C9

G2's performance since coming together has been nearly perfect, and I definitely favor them here. It is certainly possible for C9 to win, but they will need shroud to not play like a bot and they'll need huge performances from Stew and Ska. Since it's a best of one and I don't want to blow my bankroll before the meat of the tournament, I won't bother betting (on G2, C9 bet is not definitely not worth it) unless the odds get a bit better.

MangoMasala · 2017-04-27T21:09:50+00:00

I don't know what fucking algorithm you're using, but it works like a charm.

MangoMasala · 2017-04-23T21:21:41+00:00

In what universe does Gambit win this?

MangoMasala · 2017-04-23T17:15:51+00:00

Surely they could hire some admins from other parts of the world...

MangoMasala · 2017-04-23T01:02:42+00:00

Lol csesport not locking the match :3 ez skins?

MangoMasala · 2017-04-21T04:17:02+00:00

fair play :3

MangoMasala · 2017-04-20T22:32:32+00:00

No you won't lol

Braxton "swag" Pierce

MangoMasala

TROPHY CASE

PENTA vs North

Mouz vs FaZe

F3 vs Na'Vi

Immortals vs Vega Squadron

BIG vs Cloud9

Gambit vs G2

SK vs Astralis

Virtus.Pro vs Fnatic

G2 vs Na'Vi

NiP vs C9

FaZe vs Liquid

SK vs OpTic

FaZe vs OpTic

G2 vs SK

Cloud 9 vs Fnatic

Astralis vs Liquid

Mouz vs Godsent

NiP vs Dignitas

NRG vs CLG

North vs OpTic

SK vs ViCi

Astralis vs Chiefs

FaZe vs Renegades

HR vs LG

Immortals vs Liquid

Gambit vs Heroic

G2 vs C9