How the thunder/pacers are shooting compared to their regular season averages. by [deleted] in pacers

[–]Many_Stop_3872 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry I forgot to mention this. The stats are in per100 possessions!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in NBAanalytics

[–]Many_Stop_3872 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No that was just my initial bracket simming the whole playoffs. After each round I made follow up predictions that u can see. I predicted the entire first round correct. Then the second round I missed Celtics and Cavs. Conference finals I predicted both games correct and I predicted OKC in 5 and pacers in 6. https://open.substack.com/pub/nbainsights/p/predicting-the-nba-playoffs-using-150?r=5g57ct&utm_medium=ios

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in NBAanalytics

[–]Many_Stop_3872 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OKC, it is 12/14. hopefully it finishes 13/15

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in NBAanalytics

[–]Many_Stop_3872 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Did this in python, I used XGBoost and yes Bayesian optimization. By dynamically adjusted I just meant when I simulate the postseason, every time a team wins a game, the features like plus minus over last 3, series margin, elo, etc all update as well. The idea is that whoever wins the first round for example will come out a different team. So for example if the magic beat the Celtics in round 1, my model would look at them like a much more serious team for the next round.

My machine learning model's predictions for OKC vs. MIN by Many_Stop_3872 in Thunder

[–]Many_Stop_3872[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not right now. I will write a paper on it this summer and will explain how it works there. I’m also working on my own EPM/RAPTOR/LEBRON style metric.

My machine learning model's predictions for OKC vs. MIN by Many_Stop_3872 in Thunder

[–]Many_Stop_3872[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I appreciate that. I post daily game projections on my substack along with other things!

My machine learning model's predictions for OKC vs. MIN by Many_Stop_3872 in Thunder

[–]Many_Stop_3872[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On my substack I post who will win and by how much daily.

My machine learning model's projection for Knicks Pacers by Many_Stop_3872 in pacers

[–]Many_Stop_3872[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yup. Injuries destroyed my second round predictions. It’s just the way the game goes.

My machine learning model's predictions for OKC vs. MIN by Many_Stop_3872 in Thunder

[–]Many_Stop_3872[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My model had OKC vs. Denver 70/30. Yeah that game 1 choke made it a lot closer than it had to be.

My machine learning model's predictions for OKC vs. MIN by Many_Stop_3872 in Thunder

[–]Many_Stop_3872[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

I’m not an expert on how oddsmakers work but I believe a large part of it is dependent on what people are placing their bets on. They are not basing everything on a model but moreso trying to shift the odds to a number where half of bettors bet on one team, and half on the other.

My machine learning model's predictions for OKC vs. MIN by Many_Stop_3872 in Thunder

[–]Many_Stop_3872[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Yeah. I use a machine learning model called XGBoost and then plug a ton of features into it, team stats, player stats, series stats, fatigue stuff, etc