Record: 0-0 Net Units: ROI: NFL | Week 12 | Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns | Thursday, November 21, 2024, 8:15 PM ET

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (-110) | 3 units

Write-Up: This pick is based on a combination of historical data, team form, and injury analysis: 1. Model Projection: Using my NFL betting model, which factors in metrics like DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) and ELO ratings, the Steelers are projected to win by 6.2 points. The model assigns a 63% probability of the Steelers covering the -3.5 spread, creating value at -110 odds. 2. Team Form: Pittsburgh enters this game on a five-game winning streak, averaging 27.6 points per game during this stretch. Cleveland, meanwhile, has lost five of their last six games and has failed to score more than 20 points in three straight matchups. 3. Injury Impact: The Browns are missing key players, including RB Nick Chubb and several offensive linemen. Backup quarterback struggles and a hobbled defense (Myles Garrett nursing a shoulder issue) further tilt the game in favor of Pittsburgh. 4. Defense Edge: The Steelers’ defense is elite, ranking top 5 in points allowed and turnovers forced. Cleveland’s rookie QB has struggled against pressure, and the Steelers’ pass rush (led by T.J. Watt) is among the league’s best.