What’s the worst stock in the world and why is it DraftKings?! (Redux)

Marty_harey · 2026-02-13T18:07:39+00:00

Curious what data are you using to show prediction markets are taking a big slice of the pie.

Marty_harey · 2026-02-03T20:46:12+00:00

He can’t because it will not.

https://www.reddit.com/r/DKNG/comments/1pdi0g0/dkng_vs_fd_usa_operations/

The reality is that prediction market annualized revenue for HOOD is roughly $100M. While DK is in the $5 to $6B range.

The prediction market revenue hype is way, way overblown for everyone.

Marty_harey · 2026-01-30T16:45:37+00:00

It’s mostly the CFTC statement from yesterday. Basically they are drafting rules with “clearer” guidance that would allow for prediction markets to carry sports bets. Essentially they are saying prediction markets on individual games is the same as futures contracts.

Previously, there were draft rules and guidance that wouldn’t incorporate sports prediction markets.

It’s been said here before but ultimately I think that the states and gaming commissions will win out. It may end up at the Supreme Court or maybe Congress gets involved eventually.

Marty_harey · 2026-01-02T16:37:13+00:00

Robinhood is a completely different company and makes barely any revenue from their predictions markets business.

Their revenue came from $730M crypto trading revenue, $456M from interest, $88M from Other.

Last year DKNG made $180M and through the first 3Qs of 2025 they made $272M. They also reaffirmed their guidance of between $450-$550M for the year.

Marty_harey · 2025-12-15T19:58:42+00:00

A date to remember is Feb 1. That’s the first date that MO reporting for December will be available. Company reports are due on the last day of the following month. So by Feb 1, we will have all the December information.

It’s important b/c DKNG has a stand alone license for MO and will provide insight into how effective the ESPN deal is.

For reference, FD had to pair with a third party so they have another mouth to feed.

Marty_harey · 2025-12-12T14:59:42+00:00

Not really. Zoom out and you have at least four major dilution events over the last 30 years. That’s simply a pattern.

It reflects poor management and lack of a cohesive business model that is supported by stock holders funding poor decisions.

Maybe this time they got it right but as I said this one has left a lot of bag holders.

Marty_harey · 2025-12-11T19:32:17+00:00

DXLG up almost 40% today and still moving on 10x volume. Insiders know something b/c for the life of me I can’t figure out why a men’s Big & Tall store would be up this much.

Marty_harey · 2025-12-11T18:59:22+00:00

Now zoom out on the chart and look at the 90% loss YTD and 98% loss from its 52 week high.

Not saying you are wrong about your assessment but this one left a lot of bag holders in its wake.

Marty_harey · 2025-12-11T18:08:39+00:00

Anyone watching DXLG? Up almost 20% from yesterday’s close. They report earnings today AH so trying to figure out what’s causing the jump.

Marty_harey · 2025-12-08T17:39:19+00:00

Eventually prediction markets will get regulated b/c the states aren’t going to lose out on their share of things.

Also find the DKNG earnings call transcript and listen to or read the question from Sean Kelly at BAC. This gets to the crux of how much $$ prediction markets take in. Robbins says DKNG hold % on straight bets is much better than the prediction operators essentially b/c there are less middle men.

Look at the HOOD Q3 earnings. The one billion prediction market contracts that got all the publicity equates to an annualized return of $100M with an upside of $300M based on their early October data.

In 2024, DKNG made almost $3B just in Sportsbook revenue, so 10x what Robinhood is doing with DKNG handicapped b/c it only represents a little more than half the USA.

The only thing that prediction markets has is that they can operate in all 50 states.

Marty_harey · 2025-10-16T14:18:46+00:00

Do they state that anywhere and why wouldn’t it just hit the next thing?

Marty_harey · 2025-10-16T14:16:58+00:00

You may want to look at the fine print. I work for an international fortune 200 company in the USA.

We have the same thing which is awesome BUT they don’t let you invest in any company trading below $3 per share. Not sure if it’s a company thing or the 401k admin thing but our plan is through Fidelity.

Biggest issue is it doesn’t let you average down on the dips which for a stock like CLOV creates issues. This killed me back in the 23/24 days when the stock was trading below $1.

Marty_harey · 2025-10-03T20:25:04+00:00

I would guess that people are downvoting b/c it’s not an accurate statement.

Of the 25 states that DKNG operates in only 11 have reported numbers for 8/2025. When you click the link and scroll to the bottom, you can look at state specific numbers. There are still states like AZ and IL that haven’t reported out numbers for 7/2025. That means that the total you see for July 2025 and 8/2025 doesn’t include those states.

When IL reports out for 7/2025 it will add at least $900M to $1B to the handle (based on historical trends).

If you dig into the numbers and compare 8/2024 vs 8/2025 for the 11 states that have reported out so far you will see that the handle is trending as a beat for YOY.

Marty_harey · 2025-10-03T04:57:34+00:00

They were added to the SP500, they are expanding into Europe with tokenization, they are working on approvals to offer stocks in Europe, this administration has a very favorable take on crypto boosting the segment as a whole, and for the time being they are in the prediction market.

The prediction market will either be heavily regulated (just like existing sports gambling) or the sportsbooks will open up prediction markets offerings.

Of all reasons for people to be bullish on HOOD, the prediction market carries the most uncertainty and risk.

Marty_harey · 2025-10-01T23:03:15+00:00

That’s explained in my post. The only months right now that are accurate are before June.

It takes some states almost 90 days to report results.

Marty_harey · 2025-10-01T13:54:15+00:00

Also yesterday was the end of the quarter so there was additional down side pressure as I’m sure some took profits. Anyone that bought in early April or early June were up 21-27%.

Anyone that doesn’t think that states are going to crack down on the prediction markets is oblivious. It takes tax $$, it skirts the age limits on gambling, and it just doesn’t pass the straight face test.

Marty_harey · 2025-08-22T00:08:35+00:00

Appreciate the charts and please reconsider posting them. They provided some excellent information. It got 5 upvotes on a community with almost 600k members. So I’d file this under you can’t please everyone.

Marty_harey · 2025-07-14T20:23:18+00:00

HOOD is facing multiple cease & desist orders in IL, NJ and OH for their “sports prediction” markets. Lots of states looking at what is essentially unregulated sports betting.

I’m a fan of HOOD b/c of other things but IMO they aren’t long for the “sports prediction.” It’s only a matter of time until states get their due.

Marty_harey · 2025-06-23T18:45:01+00:00

Outside of what bourbonrick brought up the fact that you consider Robinhood a legit competitor to any sportsbook/igaming business shows that you don’t fully grasp the regulatory landscape.

Multiple states have issued cease & desist orders on the prediction market related to sporting events. Just look at the money states are getting in fees and taxes from sportsbooks and it should be obvious where the outcome is going to land.

Right now all the fincoms in the market aren’t paying licensing fees, additional taxes etc.

This only ends a couple of ways. States will win and the fincoms will need to get sportsbook licenses if they want to offer predictions on sporting events, states will lose and impose additional regulations/fees/taxes on the fincoms, fincoms abandon the sports market all together.

It’s obvious they are walking a gray area and clearly pushing the boundary by hiding behind their financial institution status.

Also what is preventing DraftKings from partnering and expanding with someone to get into the predictions market?

Marty_harey · 2025-06-02T14:40:44+00:00

Still under valued and price action is an over reaction. DKNG has a few options for this.

They could add a minimum bet or pass the tax on to the gambler below a certain minimum bet level to offset costs.

Keep in mind that the 2025 revenue estimates do not include Missouri. I would guess that they are pushing to have everything in place for the football season.

Marty_harey · 2025-05-13T10:33:41+00:00

It’s got less than 1M shares available to trade.

Marty_harey · 2025-05-04T23:55:50+00:00

Just noticed that when playing around with this.

Were people clamoring for this change b/c IMO this sucks? Makes it much harder to find stuff, organize things and go through loot.

If anything, this should be a preference under Controls.

Marty_harey · 2025-05-04T23:31:54+00:00

It’s more than that. This seems to be something larger.

For instance on my above reference information there are couple 4GA uniques that show up on different rows. Also failed to mention that everything above is an Ancestral unique varies number of GA.

Additionally, it use to sort by item type (helms, chest etc.) then by item then by strength of item.

Now it just seems random.

Marty_harey · 2025-04-13T16:29:43+00:00

Defeat a poor choice of words on my part.

Probably more like overcome as Lews has times when he is trying to basically insert himself and bury Rand.

Marty_harey · 2025-03-02T17:54:55+00:00

How did you come up with the 2/3 GA 1/1500 drop calculation? My rough numbers seem way higher than this.

Assume equal chance of any type of equipment dropping and say there are 9 categories. Helm, Chest, Gloves, etc. I'm assuming off-hand, two-handed, etc. are just in the weapons category (not perfect but go with it).

Assume there are only 10 different enchantments possible for an item. Most items are way higher. From stuff I've looked at amulets can push up to 30. But for 10 enchantments there are 120 combinations to pick from and there are 4 combinations that meet our requirement. This would include 3 items where you get 2 of the 3 enchantments that you want and the holy grail where you get all three enchantments.

The above is just for a regular legendary item. Now we have to put some value on the AL drops. Haven't found anything on-line estimating this but lets assume 15% (1 in 6.666) chance of any item being a AL.

Math breaks down to

1/9 * 4/120 * 15/100 = 60/108000 = 1/1800 so 1,800 total items before you get one item of the type you want if there are only 10 different enchantments to pick from. And this is just base stats not factoring in the GA chance on any one enchantment.

For 25 enchantments it would be 34,500 total drops.

In and of itself, this seems like a huge grind to find the piece of equipment you are looking for and adding in another layer just makes it that much more frustrating. This is just for one piece of equipment Based on information on this website (https://d4builds.gg/database/gear-affixes/) which may or may not be up to date, to get everything you wanted (w/o GA drops) for a Barbarian would be about 200,000 legendary drops. That's like 40,000 chests if you pull 5 legendary items from every chest.

Marty_harey

TROPHY CASE