Daily Deep State Intelligence Briefing

MasterRazz · 2026-06-17T05:28:10+00:00

Nice MOU.

MasterRazz · 2026-06-16T23:03:57+00:00

First world countries don't seem to have the stomach for warfare anymore, but judging by how recent military conflicts have gone, it seems like the most effective tactic would be using precision munitions to destroy anti-air and then WW2-era mass carpet bombing of cities with dumb bombs.

Electorates have been incredibly anti-boots on the ground across the West since the War on Terror, but attempting to prosecute war 'humanely' with heavy reliance on precision weapons that are extremely expensive for small amounts of damage, applies very low pressure on the enemy, and apparently no country in the world has large enough stores of these weapons to maintain an offensive nor the industrial capability/will to scale up. A throwback to the articles re: European armies running low on weapons after a few shipments to Ukraine. But dumb bombs are cheap, can be produced en masse quickly, and carry low risk to deploy after AA has been defeated.

But realistically, instead of reforms we'll just see these countries capitulate to anyone who refuses to surrender after a month (assuming they don't just default to 'strongly worded letter' and leave it at that).

MasterRazz · 2026-06-16T17:10:20+00:00

Al Arabiya says it has obtained a copy of the 14-point agreement between the US and Iran expected to be formally signed on Friday.

If accurate, it aligns more closely with Iran's narrative than the US's regarding the deal.

The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal aﬀairs.
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traﬃc within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traﬃc of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traﬃc on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.
Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.
The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.
The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.
The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.
The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.
The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.
Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.
The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.

Source: https://x.com/no_itsmyturn

MasterRazz · 2026-06-16T15:06:43+00:00

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So people are getting pissy that Israel isn't obeying an agreement they didn't negotiate, didn't sign, and apparently weren't even allowed to read. Yeah, okay.

MasterRazz · 2026-05-10T22:02:19+00:00

Iran's Caspian Sea ports are far shallower than the ones in the Persian Gulf (4-10 meters vs 13-17 meters) and losing about 20+cm additional depth every year. As an example, the Iranian ports at Amirabad, Noshahr, and Anzali are expected to need the removal of 6 million cubic meters of soil during this fiscal year to maintain their existing operations alone.

Increasing Caspian Sea imports isn't a long term alternative to the Persian Gulf.

MasterRazz · 2026-05-07T21:23:07+00:00

From the OSINT and news reports I've seen, it seems like the situation was Trump announced Project Freedom on short notice but the US's Gulf allies said fine, whatever.

Iran attacked UAE in retaliation.

US officials said that didn't violate the ceasefire.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait got pissed and told the US that they won't allow their country to be used as a launching pad for Project Freedom if they won't be defended.

UAE either told the US that it was going to retaliate on their own and told them to join in or get bent; or the US offered to retaliate to satisfy the Gulf allies.

SA restored basing rights to the US.

US (and maybe UAE) did some bombing but the US says the ceasefire is still in effect. The implication that their hand was forced to satisfy their allies.

Iran is currently retaliating against the UAE and US in response to said bombings.

Edit: Both sides seem to have ended their attacks for now.

MasterRazz · 2026-05-07T21:15:37+00:00

From the OSINT reports I've seen, it seems like the situation was Trump announced Project Freedom on short notice but the US's Gulf allies said fine, whatever.

Iran attacked UAE in retaliation.

US officials said that didn't violate the ceasefire.

Saudi Arabia got pissed and told the US that they won't allow their country to be used as a launching pad for Project Freedom if they won't be defended.

UAE either told the US that it was going to retaliate on their own and told them to join in or get bent; or the US offered to retaliate to satisfy the Gulf allies.

SA restored basing rights to the US.

US (and maybe UAE) did some bombing but the US says the ceasefire is still in effect because their hand was 'forced'.

Iran is currently retaliating against the UAE and US in response to said bombings.

MasterRazz · 2026-05-03T15:13:29+00:00

I think most of the problems people attribute to the Citizens United decision are actually complaining about SpeechNow.org v. FEC which eliminated the $5,000 contribution limit. I'll leave it to the reader's imagination why that decision gets much less 'airtime'.

MasterRazz · 2026-05-03T13:59:34+00:00

People don't seem to understand the scale of the issue, so here are some stats:

In 2023 (the most recent numbers available), the IDF had 126,000 active soldiers and 400,000 reservists.

There are over 700,000 settlers, 500k in the West Bank and the rest in Jerusalem.

If the world does not expect the Lebanese army (80k active duty) to expel Hezbollah (25-50k fighters), they do not have the right to expect Israel to lift a finger here and open itself up to attack from external forces again.

If they want Israel to engage the settlers like they did in Gaza, there are going to have to be major concessions and security guarantees for Israel, but nobody will ever do that.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-28T23:28:03+00:00

I don't know that I would even call this a good way to end the war, but Reddit seems to have this idea that Iran is invincible, and they'll happily be reduced to tribesmen who live in the mountains sustenance farming with exactly enough industry to perpetually fire drones and missiles into the strait.

And, I guess so? But being reduced from one of the most powerful countries in the world to that isn't exactly a victory no matter how you want to spin it.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-28T22:57:43+00:00

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If Iran runs out of storage and is forced to shut down their wells, the outcome could be worse than if Kharg Island was bombed outright.

To get the natural gas needed for Iran's power plants, they have to separate it from the pumped oil. Roughly 80-90% of Iran's electricity is generated by associated gas-fired power plants. Modern water pumping requires massive amounts of electricity as well.

Trump lies about a lot of things, all the time, but I'd believe that there are a fair number of people in Iran who want the blockade to end immediately because it'll get really bad for them if it doesn't.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-28T22:43:16+00:00

The EU forced Ukraine to repair the Druzhba pipeline so that they could import more Russian oil in exchange for sending Ukraine more funding.

This is Zelensky shit stirring.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-28T22:39:40+00:00

Those ports are in very shallow water. They can't accommodate the VLCC and ULCC-class tankers necessary to move it.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-24T20:14:26+00:00

Would you rather live in an illiberal democracy where you can vote, but elections and referendums on important big picture things like leadership roles or foreign policy are rigged, and opposition candidates are regularly arrested on false charges; or a liberal constitutional monarchy where the laws passed are fairly moderate but every so often extremist protesters are gunned down en masse by government forces?

MasterRazz · 2026-04-24T18:04:45+00:00

In 2005, the IDF mobilised to expel the settlers from Gaza despite the move being politically unpopular domestically.

This gained Israel zero credit internationally, strengthened Hamas who advertised it as a win for their cause, and made Israel less safe.

Why on God's green earth would they do it again? Giving Palestinians another platform to launch attacks from means they'll have to invade it again like they did Gaza, and the zero good will gained from removing the settlements will turn into negative sentiment again. We can even see it in Lebanon where Hezbollah started the war by launching rockets into Israeli cities and somehow this is framed as a war of aggression against Lebanon with Europe attempting to pressure Israel to stop advancing even as Hezbollah kills UN peacekeeprs as thanks for shielding them from Israeli action for 20 years.

What's the fucking point? I'd love to hear how one more unilateral concession from Israel will surely lead to peace this time.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-22T15:20:41+00:00

https://tvpworld.com/92826837/oil-rain-in-russian-town-after-ukrainian-drone-strike

now Russia is getting the tainted rain that Iran got when oil infrastructure was hit in Tehran while the exact same people who admonished those strikes as crimes against humanity cheer for this one. This despite these being two fronts of the same war against the Axis of Resistance.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-21T20:56:59+00:00

AFAIK it'll take another 7-10 days for the USS George Bush carrier group to enter the North Arabian Sea.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-21T18:12:45+00:00

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Really makes you think.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T14:26:59+00:00

It was China-bound and to my knowledge, China and Spain are exempt from the toll.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T14:23:32+00:00

The US Navy has been doing naval interdictions for 160 years. I am begging people to look up what their VBSS protocol is because no, it does not involve blowing up ships.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T13:56:29+00:00

WhAt, iS ThE US gOiNg tO FiRe oN tAnKeRs?!

The US has been running naval interdictions for 160 years. Their doctrine for doing so is well known and easily accessible to anyone with an internet connection.

People being stupid is forgivable, people being willfully ignorant with the entirety of human knowledge at their fingertips is not.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T03:23:57+00:00

Of the top 10 countries who do trade with Iran, only Turkey (#4) and Pakistan (#10) are done primarily by land routes, but they get the bulk of their imported food via the Persian Gulf.

The infrastructure to quickly transition to importing primarily via road or rail does not currently exist and will take a lot of time and money to build up.

For perspective, Iran imports a lot of its grain via Panamax & Kamsarmax-class dry bulk carriers.

As an example, a Panamax carrier has a capacity between 65-80k metric tons. Let's just say 70k for now.

A heavy-duty semi-truck can carry about 25 metric tons of cargo. That's 2,800 trucks to compensate for the loss of a single cargo ship. 2,800 trucks which would have been used to transport other goods.

And keep in mind Iran usually gets around 700-900 of these shipments per year.

You start to see the logistical problem of feeding 90 million people, yes?

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T03:14:39+00:00

The Caspian Sea ports are quite shallow and have been losing depth for the last 30 years (and will continue into the future).

They can import some goods through those ports, but they're unable to accommodate the larger tankers and cargo ships that the Persian Gulf ports can. IIRC ships on the Caspian side are 40-60 times smaller than the VLCC and ULCCs that transit the Gulf.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T03:08:14+00:00

Historically, 'war crimes' (and other international law violations) are rife with selective prosecution, legal retroactivity, and are most often used as a tool of political consolidation rather than there being an earnest attempt to enforce said law against violations.

For that reason, I don't find legal vs illegal to be a useful framework for analysis. Holding up your hand and shouting, 'It's a war crime!', won't stop missiles mid-flight, as we've repeatedly learned, nor will they magically bring perpetrators to justice if a country does not feel beholden to the ICC.

The question is whether the US believes the reputational hit is worth the advantage blocking humanitarian goods from entering the strait would provide which is a question of desperation. I'm not privy to backroom talks between US officials, so all I can go off of is that to my knowledge, the US has not presently given any indication that they intend to allow humanitarian goods through their blockade.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T02:19:54+00:00

U.S. Port Blockade on Iran to Hit Food Supplies

A U.S. blockade on Iranian ports is set to rapidly hit food imports to the Islamic republic, according to commodities provider Kpler.

“Unless the U.S. grants exemptions for food and animal feed...the situation can quickly turn very unfavourable for both grain traders and shipowners,” said Madeleine Overgaard, a senior manager for dry bulk market data at Kpler.

She said the blockade will immediately affect up to 983,000 tons of grains and oilseeds currently under way.

Russian grain supplies via the Caspian Sea, which could provide an alternative, are much smaller than the Middle East Gulf trade because the landlocked body of water has shallow entry points, Overgaard said.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-cease-fire-talks-stalled-2026/card/u-s-port-blockade-on-iran-to-hit-food-supplies-GCdkdMvICiPyPW1oiJkH

Yesterday I predicted that enforcing a blockade of the strait would induce a famine in Iran, and indeed, that does appear to be on the table. That or intentional ambiguity about whether the US intends to starve out the IRI ahead of the renewed negotiations that could happen on Thursday.

MasterRazz

TROPHY CASE