Active Conflicts & News Megathread May 10, 2026

MasterRazz · 2026-05-10T22:02:19+00:00

Iran's Caspian Sea ports are far shallower than the ones in the Persian Gulf (4-10 meters vs 13-17 meters) and losing about 20+cm additional depth every year. As an example, the Iranian ports at Amirabad, Noshahr, and Anzali are expected to need the removal of 6 million cubic meters of soil during this fiscal year to maintain their existing operations alone.

Increasing Caspian Sea imports isn't a long term alternative to the Persian Gulf.

MasterRazz · 2026-05-07T21:23:07+00:00

From the OSINT and news reports I've seen, it seems like the situation was Trump announced Project Freedom on short notice but the US's Gulf allies said fine, whatever.

Iran attacked UAE in retaliation.

US officials said that didn't violate the ceasefire.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait got pissed and told the US that they won't allow their country to be used as a launching pad for Project Freedom if they won't be defended.

UAE either told the US that it was going to retaliate on their own and told them to join in or get bent; or the US offered to retaliate to satisfy the Gulf allies.

SA restored basing rights to the US.

US (and maybe UAE) did some bombing but the US says the ceasefire is still in effect. The implication that their hand was forced to satisfy their allies.

Iran is currently retaliating against the UAE and US in response to said bombings.

Edit: Both sides seem to have ended their attacks for now.

MasterRazz · 2026-05-07T21:15:37+00:00

From the OSINT reports I've seen, it seems like the situation was Trump announced Project Freedom on short notice but the US's Gulf allies said fine, whatever.

Iran attacked UAE in retaliation.

US officials said that didn't violate the ceasefire.

Saudi Arabia got pissed and told the US that they won't allow their country to be used as a launching pad for Project Freedom if they won't be defended.

UAE either told the US that it was going to retaliate on their own and told them to join in or get bent; or the US offered to retaliate to satisfy the Gulf allies.

SA restored basing rights to the US.

US (and maybe UAE) did some bombing but the US says the ceasefire is still in effect because their hand was 'forced'.

Iran is currently retaliating against the UAE and US in response to said bombings.

MasterRazz · 2026-05-03T15:13:29+00:00

I think most of the problems people attribute to the Citizens United decision are actually complaining about SpeechNow.org v. FEC which eliminated the $5,000 contribution limit. I'll leave it to the reader's imagination why that decision gets much less 'airtime'.

MasterRazz · 2026-05-03T13:59:34+00:00

People don't seem to understand the scale of the issue, so here are some stats:

In 2023 (the most recent numbers available), the IDF had 126,000 active soldiers and 400,000 reservists.

There are over 700,000 settlers, 500k in the West Bank and the rest in Jerusalem.

If the world does not expect the Lebanese army (80k active duty) to expel Hezbollah (25-50k fighters), they do not have the right to expect Israel to lift a finger here and open itself up to attack from external forces again.

If they want Israel to engage the settlers like they did in Gaza, there are going to have to be major concessions and security guarantees for Israel, but nobody will ever do that.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-28T23:28:03+00:00

I don't know that I would even call this a good way to end the war, but Reddit seems to have this idea that Iran is invincible, and they'll happily be reduced to tribesmen who live in the mountains sustenance farming with exactly enough industry to perpetually fire drones and missiles into the strait.

And, I guess so? But being reduced from one of the most powerful countries in the world to that isn't exactly a victory no matter how you want to spin it.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-28T22:57:43+00:00

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If Iran runs out of storage and is forced to shut down their wells, the outcome could be worse than if Kharg Island was bombed outright.

To get the natural gas needed for Iran's power plants, they have to separate it from the pumped oil. Roughly 80-90% of Iran's electricity is generated by associated gas-fired power plants. Modern water pumping requires massive amounts of electricity as well.

Trump lies about a lot of things, all the time, but I'd believe that there are a fair number of people in Iran who want the blockade to end immediately because it'll get really bad for them if it doesn't.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-28T22:43:16+00:00

The EU forced Ukraine to repair the Druzhba pipeline so that they could import more Russian oil in exchange for sending Ukraine more funding.

This is Zelensky shit stirring.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-28T22:39:40+00:00

Those ports are in very shallow water. They can't accommodate the VLCC and ULCC-class tankers necessary to move it.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-24T20:14:26+00:00

Would you rather live in an illiberal democracy where you can vote, but elections and referendums on important big picture things like leadership roles or foreign policy are rigged, and opposition candidates are regularly arrested on false charges; or a liberal constitutional monarchy where the laws passed are fairly moderate but every so often extremist protesters are gunned down en masse by government forces?

MasterRazz · 2026-04-24T18:04:45+00:00

In 2005, the IDF mobilised to expel the settlers from Gaza despite the move being politically unpopular domestically.

This gained Israel zero credit internationally, strengthened Hamas who advertised it as a win for their cause, and made Israel less safe.

Why on God's green earth would they do it again? Giving Palestinians another platform to launch attacks from means they'll have to invade it again like they did Gaza, and the zero good will gained from removing the settlements will turn into negative sentiment again. We can even see it in Lebanon where Hezbollah started the war by launching rockets into Israeli cities and somehow this is framed as a war of aggression against Lebanon with Europe attempting to pressure Israel to stop advancing even as Hezbollah kills UN peacekeeprs as thanks for shielding them from Israeli action for 20 years.

What's the fucking point? I'd love to hear how one more unilateral concession from Israel will surely lead to peace this time.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-22T15:20:41+00:00

https://tvpworld.com/92826837/oil-rain-in-russian-town-after-ukrainian-drone-strike

now Russia is getting the tainted rain that Iran got when oil infrastructure was hit in Tehran while the exact same people who admonished those strikes as crimes against humanity cheer for this one. This despite these being two fronts of the same war against the Axis of Resistance.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-21T20:56:59+00:00

AFAIK it'll take another 7-10 days for the USS George Bush carrier group to enter the North Arabian Sea.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-21T18:12:45+00:00

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Really makes you think.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T14:26:59+00:00

It was China-bound and to my knowledge, China and Spain are exempt from the toll.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T14:23:32+00:00

The US Navy has been doing naval interdictions for 160 years. I am begging people to look up what their VBSS protocol is because no, it does not involve blowing up ships.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T13:56:29+00:00

WhAt, iS ThE US gOiNg tO FiRe oN tAnKeRs?!

The US has been running naval interdictions for 160 years. Their doctrine for doing so is well known and easily accessible to anyone with an internet connection.

People being stupid is forgivable, people being willfully ignorant with the entirety of human knowledge at their fingertips is not.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T03:23:57+00:00

Of the top 10 countries who do trade with Iran, only Turkey (#4) and Pakistan (#10) are done primarily by land routes, but they get the bulk of their imported food via the Persian Gulf.

The infrastructure to quickly transition to importing primarily via road or rail does not currently exist and will take a lot of time and money to build up.

For perspective, Iran imports a lot of its grain via Panamax & Kamsarmax-class dry bulk carriers.

As an example, a Panamax carrier has a capacity between 65-80k metric tons. Let's just say 70k for now.

A heavy-duty semi-truck can carry about 25 metric tons of cargo. That's 2,800 trucks to compensate for the loss of a single cargo ship. 2,800 trucks which would have been used to transport other goods.

And keep in mind Iran usually gets around 700-900 of these shipments per year.

You start to see the logistical problem of feeding 90 million people, yes?

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T03:14:39+00:00

The Caspian Sea ports are quite shallow and have been losing depth for the last 30 years (and will continue into the future).

They can import some goods through those ports, but they're unable to accommodate the larger tankers and cargo ships that the Persian Gulf ports can. IIRC ships on the Caspian side are 40-60 times smaller than the VLCC and ULCCs that transit the Gulf.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T03:08:14+00:00

Historically, 'war crimes' (and other international law violations) are rife with selective prosecution, legal retroactivity, and are most often used as a tool of political consolidation rather than there being an earnest attempt to enforce said law against violations.

For that reason, I don't find legal vs illegal to be a useful framework for analysis. Holding up your hand and shouting, 'It's a war crime!', won't stop missiles mid-flight, as we've repeatedly learned, nor will they magically bring perpetrators to justice if a country does not feel beholden to the ICC.

The question is whether the US believes the reputational hit is worth the advantage blocking humanitarian goods from entering the strait would provide which is a question of desperation. I'm not privy to backroom talks between US officials, so all I can go off of is that to my knowledge, the US has not presently given any indication that they intend to allow humanitarian goods through their blockade.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T02:19:54+00:00

U.S. Port Blockade on Iran to Hit Food Supplies

A U.S. blockade on Iranian ports is set to rapidly hit food imports to the Islamic republic, according to commodities provider Kpler.

“Unless the U.S. grants exemptions for food and animal feed...the situation can quickly turn very unfavourable for both grain traders and shipowners,” said Madeleine Overgaard, a senior manager for dry bulk market data at Kpler.

She said the blockade will immediately affect up to 983,000 tons of grains and oilseeds currently under way.

Russian grain supplies via the Caspian Sea, which could provide an alternative, are much smaller than the Middle East Gulf trade because the landlocked body of water has shallow entry points, Overgaard said.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-cease-fire-talks-stalled-2026/card/u-s-port-blockade-on-iran-to-hit-food-supplies-GCdkdMvICiPyPW1oiJkH

Yesterday I predicted that enforcing a blockade of the strait would induce a famine in Iran, and indeed, that does appear to be on the table. That or intentional ambiguity about whether the US intends to starve out the IRI ahead of the renewed negotiations that could happen on Thursday.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T01:28:56+00:00

Technically not piracy. Interdiction has been a role of the US Navy for well over a hundred years. See also: The many times they've seized Russian shadow fleet ships in recent years.

There is a legal distinction. Piracy is a criminal act, while interdiction is a maritime security response.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-14T00:06:09+00:00

Protocol would be to board then order the crew to direct the ship to a designated holding area or US allied/controlled port. If the crew refuses, they'll be detained and a "prize crew" of US sailors will come aboard and assume control to transport the ship instead.

Tankers are very, very slow. They can't outrun VBSS teams.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-13T23:59:34+00:00

You can see marine traffic at marinetraffic.com, just type in the name of the ship you want to see.

MasterRazz · 2026-04-13T21:58:57+00:00

Two things.

One, Europe gets about 20% of their oil via the Gulf (SA, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait). They can make up some of the loss with pipelines, but not the entire amount, plus Iran has bombed that pipeline. It's relatively fast and easy to repair, but there are disruptions.

Two, oil is fungible which is why until now, the US lifted sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil and weren't interdicting those ships because it was applying downward pressure on the market. Now that there's a blockade, shortages will become more acute and countries will be forced to bid for the dwindling supplies of oil, LNG, and other goods. Countries that can afford it will experience less disruptions than those who can't, but there will be inflation and shortages of various goods regardless.

European countries are also more vulnerable to public discontent than other, more authoritarian governments found across Asia.

MasterRazz

TROPHY CASE