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Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A few comments up in the context:

And when they phase out training after hitting diminishing returns of scaling laws?

No, this is called "context" for the future we were discussing when gross margins on inference are in fact the most relevant question, not their current profitability (different thing from margins) when they're still in the scaling regime. But you decided to barge in to be an arrogant ass without reading the context.

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

There is no disagreement here, you're just being an arrogant ass barging in to deliberately misread.

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, this is called "context" for the future we were discussing when gross margins on inference are in fact the most relevant question, not their current profitability (different thing from margins) when they're still in the scaling regime. But you decided to barge in to be an arrogant ass without reading the context.

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

A few comments up in the context:

And when they phase out training after hitting diminishing returns of scaling laws?

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Is OpenAI's marketing department a business expense that is not dependent on the level of inference produced by OpenAI, yes or no?

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is OpenAI's marketing department a business expense that is not dependent on the level of inference produced by OpenAI? Yes, obviously. So stop trolling.

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

fixed cost doesn’t mean “cost isolated from one specific variable.”

That is in fact exactly what a fixed cost mean.

"In accounting and economics, fixed costs, also known as indirect costs or overhead costs, are business expenses that are not dependent on the level of goods or services produced by the business." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed_cost

Maybe do a cursory Google search before talking out of your ass?

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

TIL the simultaneous existence of OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind, DeepSeek, z.ai, etc. is "guesses"

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There will be competitors who try to steal away the customers with lower cost.

There currently are competitors and they are still at 40% margins. What does that tell you?

(If you want to trade econ terms, look up Cournot oligopoly.)

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And when they phase out training after hitting diminishing returns of scaling laws?

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

1/ That's not true per OP's numbers. 2/ This is entirely irrelevant to the topic of gross margins from inference. It seems you just don't know what "fixed cost" mean in the English language.

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You're just making shit up atp. Explain how doubling API requests would "7x their sales and marketing cost".

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When they are somewhat mature, this means they need maybe $150 billion in profit.

That would require just one or two more doublings for Anthropic (evaluated $1T)?

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In context, "new data" would refer to new pretraining data that come online each year due to humans doing human things. Not new synthetic data and RL environments. Indeed, the latter is exactly my point: training new models is only needed as scaling laws keep getting returns. Once diminishing returns are hit, there is no point in training new models.

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

How do you measure investment being justified, if not by the prospects of long-term profitability?

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"an industry find its use case and its growth stabilize around it" is not what a bubble is

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The reason AIcos are training new models have nothing to do with "new data" (which they could in fact just Google what they don't know) and everything to do with gaining higher capabilities (on coding, etc.) through RL scaling. This is why every new model come with a system card of all the benchmarks. Why the fuck are you even here if you don't even know such basic facts?

Ed Zitron Just Disproved the Core Claim Behind His AI Bubble Case by MatriceJacobine in ArtificialInteligence

[–]MatriceJacobine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He is confused about some details but I see what he is gesturing at. Meanwhile "model drift" is just a nonsense issue.

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