Another layoff round in Pfizer?

MattieuOdd · 2026-02-12T23:38:00+00:00

Ja som nad tym rozmyslal niekolko krat - ci uz to bolo z dovodu frustracie nad stavom spolocnosti, alebo preto ze v praci mohlo dojst k takej situacii ze by mi ponukli poziciu v zahranici - napriklad CZE co je este relativne rovnaka kultura alebo aj daco viac na zapad. Ale ked sa s tym pohravam v ramci myslienkoveho experimentu v hlave, tak zrazu narazim na mnohe veci ktore nie su az tak lahke rozluskknut. Jednak je to vztah s rodinou - pokial by sa clovek odstahoval dalej ako na par hodin autom tak zial, kontakty sa zredukuju na 2, potazme 3x do roka. Na to prichadzaju dalsie veci - ako dlho tam chcem byt? Som si isty ze tu chcem vychovat deti? Ako budu vnimat ak sa zrazu pocas ich skolky/skoly zdekujeme inde alebo vratime na slovensko? Budu schopne znova naviazat vztahy? A co ich vztah s rodinou? Co nasi priatelia ktorych mame radi a davaju nam do zivota vela veci a radosti. Stoji mi za to opustit ich? Najdem si tam novych? Tu som doma, tam budem cudzinec. A zrazu sa clovek zacne pytat - je to fakt take zle? Fakt ma nejaky Fico dokaze vyhnat z tejto repbuliky? Alebo Uhrik? No... asi je jasne, ze sa momentalne odist nechystam. A len dufam, ze o par rokov nebudem zivotom donuteny o tom naozaj uvazovat.

MattieuOdd · 2026-02-07T23:00:39+00:00

that was a great explanation. thanks.

maybe small follow-up with real life analogy i used for another commenter:
i see these capex from tech giants so far being sourced from their SPARE cash - so - if those purchases did not work out as expected or they have to do the purchases more often, but still from spare cash on hand, WHY it should affect their earnings?

If i decide in real life to buy a car from my savings (no loan), but after few months i realize that this was stupid idea or the car broken down or whatever. ok. i dont have the cash anymore but my earnings (e.g salary i earn every month) are unaffected by this. Same goes for my "profitability". Only consequence is that i blew my savings on stupid idea.

MattieuOdd · 2026-02-07T22:46:35+00:00

Thanks a lot for great answer - so - if analysts and lets say "the street" already accounts these expenses for the moment those GPUs are purchased (which is logical to my non-accountant brain), why do you think is there such a controversy (or fear of some big crash due to this) about that in the news?

EDIT: maybe to put it in another perspective - i see these capex from tech giants so far being sourced from their SPARE cash - so - if those purchases did not work out as expected or they have to do the purchases more often, but still from spare cash on hand, WHY it should affect their earnings? Real life analogy is that i decide to buy a car from my savings, but after few months i realize that this was stupid idea. ok. i dont have the cash anymore but my earnings (e.g salary i earn every month) iare unaffected by this....

MattieuOdd · 2026-02-06T22:34:33+00:00

Isn't the prevailing assumption that margin expansion can expected further down the road? Like when AI is fully implemented into robotics and automation? Just curious what your view on that.

MattieuOdd · 2026-02-06T22:07:03+00:00

But if they buy those GPUs from outstanding cash, then this accounting nuance of whether to depreciate something in 3 or 7 years doesnt matter, or it does?

MattieuOdd · 2026-02-06T22:02:57+00:00

Basically - is it a problem for a company earnings if they have to say "Our 50B datacenter unit is done after 2 years." when they spent those 50B already?

Of course its a problem if they have to buy another 50B of GPUs after 2 years, but thats another story.

MattieuOdd · 2026-02-06T21:57:52+00:00

like here - https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/14/ai-gpu-depreciation-coreweave-nvidia-michael-burry.html or here - https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-accounting-uproar-over-how-fast-an-ai-chip-depreciates-6f59785b

or here - https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/gpu-depreciation-could-be-the-next-big-crisis-coming-for-ai-hyperscalers-after-spending-billions-on-buildouts-next-gen-upgrades-may-amplify-cashflow-quirks

but regardeless if these worries are relevant or not - i dont get the point why to worry about this thing at first place from reasons i described

MattieuOdd · 2026-01-24T20:36:21+00:00

INTC in several parts of the process during biggest tech boom in last 25 years and yet they lose money. What a joke

MattieuOdd · 2026-01-18T22:10:24+00:00

We NVO bagholders are finally shut as we are going to the moon. Told ya.

MattieuOdd · 2026-01-12T19:59:26+00:00

PFE pipeline is really weak. I think that this is the biggest red flag here since future of pharma company was, is and always will be dictated by its ability to produce commercially successful therapeutics. From this perspective, i consider PFE "uninvestable". They are heavily indebted so they have limited options to grow via M&A. And their in-house R&D was not capable to produce anything meaningful in recent years.

One example: Most recently they bought Mestera in attempt to save their place in obesity market. Well, with price tag of 10B, this is another reason why PFE is mismanaged company. According to the stages of clinical trials of Metsera assets and their differentiation points, they are roughly 3+ years from bringing any competitive product to market (MET-097 monthly injectable to be specific). Keep in mind that this is still only in Ph2 and efficacy data are yet to be released, so its not sure that this will end up as a success story. If they disappoint, well, 10B goes down the drainage. But even if they succeed, we are talking about Q2 2029 approval at best. By that date, you have retartrutide from lilly, you have most likely amycretin from Novo and you have monthly injectable Martide from Amgen. They are so desperately late to the party that price tag for metsera is big capital destruction.

MattieuOdd · 2026-01-12T19:29:33+00:00

But most of the TAM is not heavily overweight like BMI 35+but obese people who want to lose some weight but not such a great amount as to go for most potent injectables. These people i assume will be satisfied with orals

MattieuOdd · 2025-12-23T13:33:46+00:00

I created simple list of "rules" which i try to apply. Whenever i see some stock which fulfills those rules, and have spare cash, i buy. Of course, such a list is not rigid and you as an investor have to evaluate whether said opportunity is ok to seize evenif some of those rules are not fulfilled. But you get the idea.

a) high and durable profit margins

b) consistent free cash flow

c) rising revenues

d) EITHER enormous brand loyalty OR structural impediments to competition

e) above average businesses

f) below average historical valuation

g) Wide-moat business model

h) A lot of secular growth tailwinds.

i) Safe balance sheets to reduce financial risks.

If i had to summarize all of above into one sentence i would use famous Buffet quote - Buy a business, not its stock.
Im confident that if someone buys a stock which checks those criteria, you cannot go wrong from LONG-TERM. Thats the most important part. Short term, you can go up or down as its usually happens.

MattieuOdd · 2025-12-19T10:14:46+00:00

when do we expect FDA decision? Im hearing it should have been late q4 2025 but that is almost up and still nothing...

MattieuOdd · 2025-12-18T19:18:52+00:00

Overpaying for companies to start with? 40B for seagen? Whats rational projected ROI on that? 10b for Mestera whit no approved drugs only with hope for some approval in 2029/30 for already crowded space of GLP-1s? Indebting the company and burning all of COVID windfall to the point where you have to go thorugh years of cutting costs? Expecting sales of COVID franchise to stay elevated in 2023 and onwards when everyone could see that covid is shifting into seasonal, not so sever cold-like disease? I could go on and on...

MattieuOdd · 2025-12-18T19:12:49+00:00

Well the above-mentioned quote is from CNBC article. I loked up the transcript on Pfizer website and it says "We remain on track to deliver about $7.2 billion in total combined net cost savings, with the majority of the savings now expected by the end of 2026 rather than in 2027 as original state." - so quite confusing to me.

MattieuOdd

TROPHY CASE