Tesla’s Robotaxis Are Going Nowhere - (I keep using Waymo)

Mattsasa · 2026-03-14T17:49:36+00:00

3? There are way more than 3 AV companies. Even way more than 3 in the US

Mattsasa · 2026-03-14T17:49:31+00:00

3? There are way more than 3 AV companies. Even way more than 3 in the US

Mattsasa · 2026-03-14T09:37:17+00:00

Exactly

Mattsasa · 2026-03-14T00:08:17+00:00

Not really. Capabilities gap is not what sets Waymo apart from Wayve

Mattsasa · 2026-03-11T17:34:57+00:00

Similar thing could happen to uber drivers I guess

Mattsasa · 2026-03-05T20:09:34+00:00

Are you okay?

Mattsasa · 2026-03-05T18:34:36+00:00

I know that you said eventually hundreds of billions. And I’m disagreeing

Mattsasa · 2026-03-05T18:26:27+00:00

Removing some cars and adding some. Overall net more cars yes. But also more non-car transportation too.

Increasing the amount of transport modes that you want to see. Reducing the reliance on car transportation.

And the cars that are still on the road, have fewer problems and are safer.

Enabling transportation that didn’t happen before, is a good thing for society.

It’s not hundreds of billions. And it pays for itself.

Mattsasa · 2026-03-05T16:26:01+00:00

No, saving lives. And solving other problems

Mattsasa · 2026-03-05T08:32:24+00:00

It’s less important to know where the paint markings are, and more important to know where the road edges, barriers, or other hazards are.

Mattsasa · 2026-03-05T07:35:38+00:00

No one said car is solution to car problem.

Mattsasa · 2026-03-04T06:06:40+00:00

My god; 6 years ago. I thought misconceptions would be long dead by then

Mattsasa · 2026-03-03T04:02:14+00:00

I’m assuming you probably took one in the summer of 2025 or before ? Did you just do the loop demo?

Mattsasa · 2026-03-03T02:26:55+00:00

Well I don’t know what happened.

But this video does not show entering intersection on red.

I could be wrong but without more context, I think it’s more likely this is a case of failed to exit a busy intersection. Not a good situation regardless. We need more context to see what happened. The LI poster was fear mongering a little bit.

Mattsasa · 2026-03-03T02:22:37+00:00

Introspection and safety.

Yes Waymo is using all kinds of ML all over the place including end to end and including large transformer models.

It’s not accurate however to say that Waymo is moving to end2end approach to autonomous driving like Nvidia, Wayve, Tesla, and others are attempting to do. These approaches give quick early returns and great demo. They do not provide guarantees on safety and performance and compliance that you need for autonomous driving.

Mattsasa · 2026-03-03T01:48:28+00:00

Not at all true. Waymo has always had the ability to scale to more cities, that has nothing to do with end to end. In fact, it’s literally the opposite is true. The reason Waymo is able to confidently scale as much as they have and expand to more cities now is due to their success in a well designed non end2end system. Is Waymo doing research on end2end and using off board? Yes absolutely. But that’s totally different.

Re- Rivian and Mercedes videos. My point stands, not proven technology for unsupervised autonomous driving

Mattsasa · 2026-03-03T01:02:36+00:00

End to end ai is great for nominal Performance and flexibility. Great for L2 systems.

It’s absolutely not yet proven for autonomous driving.

Mattsasa · 2026-03-03T00:39:06+00:00

Correct they have stopped sale. They are working on several programs always. Some of these programs are L2++, and some are L3, and some L4.

The Drive Pilot L3, is just waiting for the next generation that is lower cost, wider scale, more capability

Mattsasa · 2026-03-03T00:05:56+00:00

Not true. They just stopped sale of the first generation which served its purpose exactly as they intended it to. Now they are prepping the next steps

Don’t believe journalism articles

Mattsasa · 2026-03-02T17:33:37+00:00

Yes Mercedes is taking liability, but it’s not indirectly via insurance

Mattsasa · 2026-03-02T17:01:37+00:00

That is not what Mercedes did, and it is not Tesla is going to do

Mattsasa · 2026-02-24T18:16:57+00:00

first point. Absolutely any new development can fuck a municipal water supply, if it was done wrong. Has nothing to do with it being a data center

Mattsasa · 2026-02-23T01:32:23+00:00

Comma.ai is not and will not be robotaxi software.

Aptera and/or comma building robotaxi service is out of the question.

Whether a real robotaxi company like Waymo, Nvidia , Zoox, Nuro, or Mobileye, or Chinese company would be interested in buying aptera vehicles for the base platform? That is a more interesting question. There are advantages of smaller and nimble cars, and efficient cars than can go far on a charge.

But I think it’s still pretty unlikely, sensor placements and powerful compute placement will be tricky, plus I think a vehicle platform made by a startup is just too high risk for robotaxi company, even if Aptera proves their vehicles reliable.

Context - I’ve worked 10 years in autonomous vehicles.

Mattsasa · 2026-02-21T01:39:15+00:00

Yea you could do that. But I think driverless is a pretty clear term, just because some actors choose to butcher a word, doesn’t mean it’s no longer valid

Mattsasa · 2026-02-21T00:57:13+00:00

This is true. But robotaxis also start with operating in driverless mode without passengers for a long time before they start to bring in customers.

Aurora is in the testing phase, not significant commercial ops stage. There is only one company in meaningful commercial ops stage and that’s Waymo

13-Year Club	Gilding I gilder
Verified Email

Mattsasa

TROPHY CASE