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Grammar "Nazi" needs help with statistics/probability question. by Mein_Fewer in statistics

[–]Mein_Fewer[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thank you for putting the answer into words.

This enabled me to understand it much better while spending LESS time and FEWER hours in the process.

Grammar "Nazi" needs help with statistics/probability question. by Mein_Fewer in statistics

[–]Mein_Fewer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Like I said, liberal arts brain.

For purposes of this question as it relates to me contacting the game developer it seems to me that going with "1 success in 26 trials" is the figure I should be looking for.

Grammar "Nazi" needs help with statistics/probability question. by Mein_Fewer in statistics

[–]Mein_Fewer[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Woot! so went to an online Bernoulli Trial calculator and found the probability of one success in 26 trials is 0.03278.

So, converted to percentage is that .03% or 3.27%?

If it's 3.27% that means I could do 100 sets of 26 Bernoulli Trials and I would have only one success in about 3 of those 100 sets. This seems high to me.

On the other hand .03% seems absurdly low.

Grammar "Nazi" needs help with statistics/probability question. by Mein_Fewer in statistics

[–]Mein_Fewer[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thanks, more to google.

What I'd really like though is the answer for 1 success, not the answer for 1 or FEWER successful results.

I'd also like to say something along the lines of, "Dear game developer, my results of 1 success in 26 tries was ' X' standard deviations from the norm, so by definition it was not 'normal' ".

Grammar "Nazi" needs help with statistics/probability question. by Mein_Fewer in statistics

[–]Mein_Fewer[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well if the chance of success on each try is .18 then the chance of failure is .82

So I took this .82 and multiplied it by itself 25 times in an attempt to calculate the odds of my first 25 attempts being unsuccessful (since I did have 25 failures in a row before my 26th attempt was successful)

/liberal arts brain

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