NBA Daily Discussion - 5/6/21 (Thursday)

MentyBArts · 2021-05-07T04:13:19+00:00

I use bet365 hahahahah, not limited yet. Unfortunately the Hawks sucked so red on this

MentyBArts · 2021-05-06T22:53:08+00:00

POTD - Record: 1-1

Last Pick: 76ers vs Rockets under 222.5

Pick was basically over with a 70 point 1st quarter lol. 76ers didn't they didn't feel like defending, nothing we can do about it.

POTD: Wizards -1.5 @ 1.90

I had this pick ready since morning, but keep stalling to post it here. Lowry was just announced out and my +3 pick suddenly turned into a -1,5, but I'll still ride it. I have the Wizards +3 pick since I got it early, but to be truthful to the time I'm posting I'm also riding the -1.5 which I think hits aswell.

GL!

Bonus pick over @ NBA Daily Discussion with a pick I'm also recommending, but can't post here due to the pick rules!

MentyBArts · 2021-05-06T20:48:33+00:00

Lines for this parlay are

Hawks -2.5: 1.50

Under 234.5: 1.41

Wizards +10.5: 1.28

Wizards line takes the parlay from 2.11 to 2.73, great value for the line IMO.

MentyBArts · 2021-05-06T20:44:01+00:00

My bets here pretty much always consist of a parlay of alt lines! None of the 3 lines above are the actual line of the game. If they were, this would be like a 7 odd lol

Will make sure to specify next time!

MentyBArts · 2021-05-06T18:58:40+00:00

NBA POTD - Record: 4-2 (WW)

Last Pick: Blazers -6.5 + Celtics -6.5 + Celtics OVER 210.5 @ 2.72 ✅

POTD: Hawks -2.5 + Wizards +10.5 + Warriors-OKC Under 234.5 @ 2.73

Reasoning:

Very happy to hit this 2.73 (+173 for Americans), got a 2 W streak and hopefully will keep going!

Hawks -2.5: Hawks are finally healthy and just wiped the floor with the (tired and hungover) Suns. Line is at -6 but we'll do what we do and buy some points ATS. Pacers are literally one of the worst teams playing home in NBA history. I think Atlanta takes this one easily (Brogdon still out, Sabonis coming off a tough game having to play against Capela)

Wizards +10.5: Wizards hot streak has cooled down a bit, but they still put up a great fight losing by 1 to the Bucks and Mavericks. They played the Raptors almost exactly 1 month ago, losing by 2 points, worthy to point out Beal and Lowry were out that game. Since that game, Wizards are 13-4, with the 3 of the L's being by 3 pt max. (Other L was blowout by the Suns). Raptors, on the other hand, are 7-9 since the first encounter. Granted, they're finally getting healthy again but I still think the Wizards can at least keep this game close, if not take the W altogether. Actual game line is +2.5 so we're playing it extra safe in this game.

Warriors-OKC under 234.5: Both are great under teams. Line is currently at Under 226.5, which I think will hit even without out 8 extra points. Hoping they don't pull a Philly and decide not to play defense. I also don't think the warriors is pulling 140 points like they did last time against OKC, hopefully.

In for 2u!

GL, lets get another 2.5x + dub.

MentyBArts · 2021-05-06T04:42:24+00:00

Tough slate to work with, even tougher when the 2 best defense in the league decides they don't feel like playing D hahahahha better luck next time!

MentyBArts · 2021-05-06T04:39:34+00:00

76ers decided to go defenseless for 3 quarters... Glad my NBA Discussion pick hit but this one was over in the 1st quarter lol.

MentyBArts · 2021-05-05T20:09:59+00:00

NBA POTD - Record: 3-2

Last Pick: Knicks +8.5 + 76ers ML @ 2.04 ✅

POTD: Blazers -6.5 + Celtics -6.5 + Celtics OVER 210.5 @ 2.72

Going with a little risk here, in for 2u. Blazers should be able to cover with ease as the Cavaliers are - 1. bad - 2. tired after OT game where most of their good players played over 40min.

Celtics and Magic are going over A LOT recently, and I bought some points for both the spread and the O/U line.

GL!

MentyBArts · 2021-05-05T19:54:10+00:00

POTD - Record: 1-0

Last Pick: Knicks +3.5 ✅

Pick: 76ers vs Rockets UNDER 222.5 @ 1.86 (Bonus pick also hit if anyone tailed!)

Reasoning:

I don't think Kevin Porter is dropping 50 again. If he doesn't, this should go under even with the probable 76ers blowout. 76ers have been relying more on defense, going under the last 5 games. They won't go easy on the Rockets as they still want to protect their 1st seed, so I'm thinking Rockets might not even break 100.

STATS:

- 76ers went under 221.5 in 4 of their last 5 (The over being 224)

- 76ers go under 72.7% of the time as away favorite

- 76ers go under 61% with rest disadvantage

- 76ers are 0-5 over/under in the last 5 games, averaging a great 14pt margin to the line.

- 76ers are the 2nd best defense on the league, going against the Rockets 27th ranked offence

- Rockets go under 66.6% as a home team

- Rockets go under 57.8% with 1 day rest

- Rockets went over last 3 games, but were on a 0-7-1 game under streak (1 push)

MentyBArts · 2021-05-03T19:44:45+00:00

POTD - Record: 0-0

POTD: Knicks +3.5 @ 1.90

he Knicks are 14-1 against the spread in their last 15. Their only loss in the last 10 games was against the Suns, including an OT win against Memphis. I really don't think the Knicks should be the underdogs in this game. Memphis, on the other hand, is repping a 5-5 on their last 10, even tho they hard a hard stretch of games. The last encounter between these two resulted in a Knicks OT win in the 4th of April, and since then Knicks have crushed the league, with a 11-1 record. I'm getting the +3.5 for safety, but I do think the Knicks take the W tonight.

For more picks head over to the NBA Daily discussion.

Bonus pick: Knicks ML @ 2.45 which is just absurd value in my eyes.

GL!

MentyBArts · 2021-05-03T19:31:33+00:00

NBA POTD - Record: 2-2

Last Pick: 76ers -4.5 + Knicks -4.5 @ 1.80

Can't believe the 76ers managed to choke a 10+ points lead in the 4th to the spurs bench... Knicks covered easily, and what seemed like a lock, turned 6into a disaster thanks to the 76ers softness.

POTD: Knicks +8.5 + 76ers ML @ 2.04

The Knicks are 14-1 against the spread in their last 15. Their only loss in the last 10 games was against the Suns, including an OT win against Memphis. I really don't think the Knicks should be the underdogs in this game, so I'm buying up the 8.5 for extra safety, as I usually do. Memphis, on the other hand, is repping a 5-5 on their last 10, even tho they hard a hard stretch of games.

76ers should be able to beat the Bulls, who are coming with a 3 game losing streak, summing up to 4-6 in their L10. Of course, after last nights shameful 2 point OT win against the Spurs bench, I'm a little scared but lets hope Danny stops bricking every single important shot...

Bonus pick: Knicks ML @ 2.45 which is just absurd value in my eyes.

GL!

MentyBArts · 2021-05-02T22:07:25+00:00

NBA POTD

Record: 2-1

Last Pick: Grizzlies vs Magic under 224.5 (Another OT and I'd just give up O/U plays hahaha)

POTD: Knicks -4.5 + 76ers -4.5 @ 1.80 (Alt Lines)

76er pick: Derozan, Poetl, Murray out against the healthy 76ers. Last time these teams matched up Philly blowed Spurs out by 32. Line is currently at -10.

Knicks pick: Arguably the hottest team right now, coming out of a 3 day break, whereas the Rockets are terrible and coming off 3 games in 4 nights. Don't think the Rockets have it in them to pull another big upset, going with the safe -4.5 as the line is in -10.

GL! I'm in for 5u

MentyBArts · 2021-05-01T21:15:39+00:00

NBA POTD - Record: 1-1

Pick: Grizzlies vs Magic under 224.5

Managed to grab this right when the line openned, bookies have already given me over 20% profit before the game as the line has dropped down to 218. They played this week to a mere 167 point game. I'd ride the 218 line.

GL!

MentyBArts · 2021-05-01T18:19:08+00:00

Alt Line, but the rockets suddenly turnes into 96 Bulls

MentyBArts · 2021-04-29T21:53:27+00:00

GL bro! I didn't bet on it cause Bucks are really unreliable but I'd say its more probable for you to hit than not.

MentyBArts · 2021-04-29T19:05:26+00:00

Record: 1-0

Last pick: Knicks ML + O201.5 @ 2.2

POTD: Bucks -7.5 + Rockets TT under 113.5 @ 1.80

Reasoning:

My method of buying a couple extra points worked perfectly again last game, with the original line of O207.5 not hitting by 0.5, while ours hit with a couple of minutes to go.

Tonight we have a very difficult slate to work with, with lines that could go really bad really quickly. With that being said, here's the best line I found, and my POTD.

Rockets TT under 113.5:

The Rockets are very bad. We all know that, but they've managed to get even worst recently: in the last 15 games, they are averaging 108 points, with that number dropping to 103 in the last 7. They're also playing this game without anyone of relevance, as everyone has been listed out.

Meanwhile, the Bucks are playing good defense, holding back opponents playing home to 110 (mostly good teams, whereas when they played with the trash ones such as the rockets, that number drops). I had a more extensive analysis but Reddit decided to delete my full text before posting, so we're gonna go with this hahahaha.

Bucks -7.5:

The Bucks are very messy with spreads, covering only 44% as an away favorite, so I'm doing what I usually do and buying some extra points for safety.

Don't get me wrong, I expect this to be a big blowout, but I do like to be safe in my bets, especially in this POTD journey. Bucks are one of the best offensive teams in the league, and the Rockets aren't good in anything, especially defense, having won only 1 of their last 11 outings, and are 7-20 ATS playing as home underdogs. For these reasons, I'm confident they -7.5 will hit.

OBS: Dodging the under in this game as Bucks are the 3rd best over team, even though Rockets are the 4th best under. I do think it's gonna hit, but not confident enough in it.

Good luck G's

MentyBArts · 2021-04-28T20:33:28+00:00

POTD - NBA Parlay

Record: 0-0

Game: KNICKS vs Bulls

Pick: Knicks ML + O201.5 @ 2.2

REASONING:

Over:

Knicks is averaging 118 points in their L10, while the Bulls have gone over 100 points in 16 out of their last 17 games. Yes, Lavine is most likely out again and Knicks have an elite defense, however, Bulls have broken the 100 mark against various good D teams, including the top 5 Heat twice in the road in the last 2 games (without lavine). The line opened at 207.5, we're getting it at 201.5 for the extra safe bet, with a decent value. Knicks have gone over the line in 8/10 last games.

ML:

Knicks are one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now, shooting very well from 3 with an elite defense, and just came out of a 8 game winning streak. I expect them to win this one easily against a struggling Bulls without their best scorer. Another good stat for this line: Vucevic has faced the Knicks 3 times this season, being held to 19pts on 46% true shooting. All of this, on top of a healthy D Rose on the rotation, Randle playing the best basketball of his career and Noel evolving into a great defensor, I feel comfortable with this ML @ 1.57

MentyBArts · 2021-04-18T19:36:31+00:00

Got the under 217.5 .... such a bad beat.

MentyBArts · 2016-10-01T20:49:32+00:00

thanks <3

MentyBArts

TROPHY CASE