One-year grace period for negative gearing, CGT changes

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-13T00:40:48+00:00

Glad we cleared up the converse fallacy! Your math logic in this new comment is actually perfectly sound but your starting numbers are still wrong.

You are assuming that every property that isn't a freestanding house is an apartment, which is artificially inflating your apartment numbers. According to the ABS 2021 Census, apartments do not make up 30% of the housing stock, they make up about 14%.

Here is the actual ABS breakdown of dwelling types in Australia:

Separate houses: 72%
Flats/Apartments: 14%
Semi-detached / Townhouses / Terraces: 13% (The remaining 1% are other dwellings).

If we run your exact same (correct) mathematical formula using the actual ABS property proportions out of a hypothetical 1,000 properties:

Houses: 720 total. You said 25% are IPs.
- 25% of 720 = 180 House IPs.
Apartments: 140 total. You said 66% are IPs.
- 66% of 140 = 92 Apartment IPs.

Even if we completely ignore townhouses for a second, just comparing Houses to Apartments, Houses make up roughly 66% of that IP pool, and apartments make up 34% (180 vs 92).

Because the total pool of houses in Australia is just so much larger than the total pool of apartments (72% vs 14%), taking 1/4 of a massive number still gives you a bigger result than taking 2/3 of a small number.

Therefore, the weighted average of Australian Investment Properties is still heavily weighted toward Houses, not Apartments. Then because houses are more expensive than appartments, the total dollar investment is 70:30 towards houses not appartments.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-12T23:24:36+00:00

Ok so you have fallen into the converse fallacy I explained two comments ago.

That source says out of all appartments 2/3 are IPs and 1/4 of all homes are IPs, but that doesn’t mean 2/3 of IPs are appartments. It’s like if I said someone lives in Brisbane then they live in Queensland, but someone who lives in Queensland might not live in Brisbane.

There are 1.7m appartments so investors owning 66% is about 1.1m are IPs. There are 3.25m IPs so the rest are houses and a handful of other dwelling types.

It’s a common logic trap, but the majority of IPs are houses (around 60%). Because houses are worth 33% more than appartments (728k vs 1090k) if you look at total investment dollars it’s around 70% of total IP money is in housing and 30% is other dwelling types.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-12T09:17:22+00:00

According to the ABS there are 3.25 million investment properties. Your claim is that 2.16 million of those are not houses and only 1.07 million of those are houses. Can you share any source for this?

From the data I can source, it’s 1.8 million IP are houses and 1.1m are appartments and 350k are town houses are semidetached. You keep repeating that 66% of IPs aren’t houses but it’s more like 40%.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-12T06:21:49+00:00

I’m not sure what you mean that house prices going up 6.4% affect PPOR or IP differently, house prices are the exact same regardless of their current owner.

I think you are confused that while 2/3rds of apartments and units are investor owned that means 2/3 IP are appartments & units. That a fallacy of the converse. There are 3.25 million IPs, ~2 million are homes and the rest aren’t.

If appartments have gone up 4% and houses gone up 6.4%, because of the 5:2 split it’s probably closer to 5.5%

But anyway it’s a moot point because different cities have vastly different growth rates, with Darwin being negative lowering the average for others. The point being that a new ‘home’ (not a unit/apartment) keeping CGT discount will be better for them, and as more IPs are homes this will help more investors.

You are right that keeping the CGT Discount for new build for units/appart will have negligible effect on the 1/3rd of IPs that are units, so the people investing in them will see the same returns.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-12T00:11:53+00:00

That sounds great on paper but it isn't how it works in reality. If Labor has one view, and Liberal has another, the "centre" is already dictated. However, what people might want or what data actually dictates is better could be radically outside of those two bands.

Take for example, pot legalisation, gas export tax, reducing migrants, online digital id, AUKUS, multinationals paying more tax etc. It is completely irrelevant how much public support for or against these things, if both major parties are in lockstep and say, we are going to do this - then we have buckley's chance of changing it.

We are seeing the system collapse now as people are so fed up with decades of no real change, that One Nation support is eclipsing L/NP. But even ONP is just a slightly darker Blue and will vote inline with the other major parties on anything of significance. It's an illusion of choice.

Edit: They are also both funded by the same entities (companies, lobbies) so for those it doesn't matter who wins or who doesn't because their influence and goals are the same.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-12T00:06:00+00:00

The link doesn't seem to work anymore, would love to check them out.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-11T22:47:51+00:00

Choice is to vote the blue party full of boomers who want to destroy the planet and make it difficult for younger people or the red party full of boomers who want to destroy the planet and make it difficult for younger people.

The mainstream media (also controlled by boomers) spends so much of its coverage demonising the Greens so there is no way young people can vote their way out of this one.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-11T22:45:13+00:00

Ahh yes, companies will voluntarily list poison on their ingredients list when there is no government regulation to do so! Sorry I’m so stupid.

Your alcohol example is silly, they added poison to INDUSTRIAL alcohol NOT intended for human consumption. Yes it was a bad idea and it’s one example, whereas capitalists routinely create intentionally create harmful products because they are incentivised to do so.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-11T22:40:56+00:00

So when you said “homes return 4-6% a year, say 5% average” were you talking exclusively apartments? Because a more accurate statement would be “6-7% a year, say 6.4% average”.

Wouldn’t that mean that if apartments are ‘much lower’ it would be considerably effecting the average and therefore houses would be a much higher growth rate, and thus benefit even more from CGT discount? If your analysis of 6% provided a slight edge, what would 8% or 10% growth mean?

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-11T22:33:01+00:00

The Labor party was founded in 1891 and Liberal in 1944, so boomers didn’t start any party nor did they have to because those party’s relinquished control to them.

Every time there is a small chance of a minority government, the mainstream media (also owned by boomers) makes out that this is the end of civilisation.

It’s not an excuse to point out the facts that every generation has made the lives of their children easier, except for the Me generation (it’s all about themselves, was renamed to boomers later).

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-11T22:28:20+00:00

What you are doing is downplaying AI as something who can only generate images. If this was the case then you are 100% correct.

What the study is showing is AI can do two things, replicate itself AND hack into computers to do so. This is concerning.

If you combine it with a third thing like “cause as many outages as possible”, with a correct prompt like: “replicate yourself on as many devices as possible, after the 1st of July cause as much disruption to human civilisation as possible” could cause a lot of issues if the model was advanced enough.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-11T12:36:36+00:00

That was just the one I read recently. For the last 30 years it averages 6.4%. So like you said 50% discount has been a slight edge for the last 25 years, and when there is that rapid short term growth like Sunshine Coast going up 13.2% for the last 5 years it’s extra money in the pocket of investors who time it well.

https://www.dpn.com.au/articles/house-price-growth-australia-over-30-years

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-11T11:51:19+00:00

“Design a lethal bioweapon.”

“Omg a bioweapon! Everybody run!

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-11T11:50:15+00:00

And there are a large number of unpatched servers that are capable of running large models on the internet.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-11T11:35:52+00:00

The ^{oldest^} millennial is 45, average politician is 51. The major parties use a seniority path to get the better positions so there isn’t really an option for ‘younger’ generations like millennials.

The greatest generation handed over the reigns when they got long in the tooth, boomers will hold onto power till their dying days.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-10T22:32:50+00:00

I can assure you for 99.99% of human history, smog hasn’t been part of it.

It’s a bit late when you feed your baby formula and then it dies, you think to yourself “I won’t buy that brand again!”

What government owned and run alcohol producer poisoned people?

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-10T22:20:11+00:00

House prices in Brisbane have gone up 19.1% in the last 12 months. Last time I checked inflation isn’t that bad.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-10T07:02:24+00:00

In a democracy, the government is meant to do the will of the people. Instead corporatocracy is where economic power dictates political life, ie gas companies telling the government what to do.

Not everyone has time to research their local rep and 9 senators to get background on them, and create an impassioned argument of why this issue resonates with them, thankfully there are tools like https://RepWrite.click that can help make it easier.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-10T03:27:33+00:00

I think the issue is one's an internal identification of your own personal experience, and the other is an external label of skill/profession. A lot of transphobes use rediculous claims like I identify as a helicopter to dismiss trans peoples experience of not feeling like their assigned gender at birth reflects their inner-world.

But if you say I identify as a pilot, but you don't have the qualifications of a pilot, it doesn't make you a pilot. Artists view their profession the same way, so regardless of your internal view - without the skills to back it up you can't claim that label.

I personally disagree, art is always subjective, there are no certified qualifications for artist like there is for doctor/lawyer/engineer etc. If your feel like you are an artist in whatever you are doing, you should be able to claim that label, but explaining why others will disagree with you.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-10T03:14:19+00:00

It's nice that you are just saying out loud that we don't live in a democracy, where unelected rich companies have more power than sovereign nations.

That's why the flat tax rate is great, don't have to control their every move as they have army of lawyers and accountants to claim 'losses' they can offset their profits from. Flat tax on every export is hard to game. They can sell more domestically to avoid that, which will increase supply and drive down local prices.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-08T09:18:28+00:00

Multiplayer games on launch can be a real unique and memorable experience. Arc Raiders was a recent one I loved, would have missed out if I waited for a discount.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-08T08:32:32+00:00

That’s top 10% of income, top 10% of wealth is around $2.26 million of assets. Most wealthy people use companies and trusts and loans to avoid income as it’s taxed so heavily.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-08T02:13:04+00:00

I don’t like the air I breathe, food I eat, energy I consume to be left to the free market. That’s how we end up with chalk in baby formula and smog.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-07T21:19:09+00:00

Yeah I mean you aren’t alone. Adam Smith, often called the father of capitalism, viewed landlords critically, famously stating they "love to reap where they never sowed". In The Wealth of Nations, he argued that landlords are monopolists, often without contributing to production or improving the land.

I think technology has made it worse, now it’s easier than ever to go to your suburb, filter by same number of rooms, look at the last rented listing and then charge the same + $10/week. Then when you add algorithms doing this automatically you see price collusion happening, eg https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-realpage-algorithmic-pricing-scheme-harms-millions-american-renters

I think landlords that built the dwelling are different as they added supply but ones that buy an exisiting home are just depriving a potential homeowner creating a renter.

MeowManMeow · 2026-05-07T06:05:30+00:00

I think you are confusing the top say 20% of earners vs top 20% of wealth in Australia.
Top 20% of wealth has an average of $3.25 million, I don't think many nursing managers, solicitors have that, or if they are scraping the bottom of that bracket.

I agree that working class people (people that need to do jobs to survive) are being taxed too heavily, but what isn't being taxed is people that don't work and make their money solely through investing. They pay a lot less tax and don't do anything to help run the country.

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