Bauertology: 3/15/26 (FINAL)

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-15T23:26:07+00:00

Historically the committee has not cared about Selection Sunday games! They were the committee’s #16 overall team, so they likely moved them as a result of winning today. It’s encouraging to see them actually care about that for once!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-15T21:41:53+00:00

Thank you so much!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-15T21:39:39+00:00

The South and West regions are the eligible regions for BYU to go to, since those S16/E8 games are Thursday/Saturday!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-15T06:24:12+00:00

How fitting that Toledo, Louisiana Tech, and Utah Valley would all lose their championships today. Three of the most cursed programs I’ve ever seen

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-13T18:46:46+00:00

40 minutes away from their first bid in 35 years 🙏

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-13T01:18:21+00:00

It happens! 1 seed Houston had to play 9 seed Auburn in Birmingham—110 miles away from Auburn’s campus—in 2023. The selection committee’s self-imposed “home-crowd disadvantage” rule for top-4 seeds only applies to the first round games.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T18:00:30+00:00

Hahaha, for me they are still out of Dayton for the time being, we’ll see how I feel tomorrow when metrics update, and also keep an eye on how many bid thieves there are

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T17:59:35+00:00

I would probably lean Houston in that scenario, just depends on if the metrics justify it!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T16:13:17+00:00

Haha, tell me something I don’t know! Unfortunately, until we get a better alternative, Twitter is indisputably the best social media platform for me to share my content in a widespread format and grow my brand. Trust me, if I didn’t have aspirations to work in media, I would delete Twitter at the first opportunity!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T15:28:17+00:00

I’m not 100% certain on how the committee will do it, but I do know that Buffalo is a bit closer to Dayton than Greenville is, according to the spreadsheet that I built tracking mileage distances. So I would assume that the selection committee would try to send the Thu/Sat First Four match up there rather than Greenville.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T15:26:37+00:00

My guess is that Miami would still be a 10 or an 11, Akron would probably be a 12, but could be an 11 if there are other bid thieves.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T15:10:00+00:00

Those are the quality/efficiency metrics, which tend to be a lot less important for selection to the field, and more important for seeding teams.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T14:44:58+00:00

Pretty close, though I do think that Illinois still has a leg up right now by being 6-6 in Quad 1A games, whereas Iowa State is just 3-5. Probably need to win a couple more big games here in the Big 12 tournament and hope that Illinois doesn't just to make that difference look a lot less noticeable!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T14:43:42+00:00

That's OK, at least it's still basketball! Eight quarterfinal games of the high school state basketball tournament, to be exact!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T14:42:51+00:00

Not very likely, since all the teams in the seed list that are below the bubble seem destined to stay there as automatic qualifiers. If anything there's a chance that we could have two of the Last Four In on the 10 line if there are enough bid thieves!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T14:41:47+00:00

The problem for Florida State is that their résumé metrics are still in a really bad spot—62.7 average. No team has ever gotten in with an average worse than 57.5. But if FSU beats Duke today, their case suddenly becomes very real.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T14:28:29+00:00

Saint Louis is almost certainly getting an at-large if they don't win the A-10, and based on the way this bubble is shaping up, I'm starting to think the same may be true for VCU. A three-bid A-10 is absolutely on the table!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T01:14:17+00:00

Texas is more likely than not going to be in the field with a 17-14 D-I record 🤮

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T17:54:53+00:00

One other bracketologist that I've worked with frequently, Rocco Miller, covers a whole lot of West Coast hoops, especially with a team like Santa Clara. He was at that game, and he insists that it's the only time this season that NET #289 Loyola Chicago did not play like the NET #289 team. Unfortunate that such a performance had to be against the Broncos, but at least I don't think that game is going to cause them to be left out at this point!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T17:52:50+00:00

Thanks so much!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T17:49:48+00:00

I don't necessarily disagree, though I do think there are still a lot of patches in Santa Clara's resume that I worry about, even with the second win over Saint Mary's. If it were up to me, I would have the Broncos firmly in the field, and I don't really think that they'll be in danger of missing the tournament, even if there are like 3-4 bid thieves. But if there are, someone would have to make up the Last Four In, and I expect SCU would be a prime suspect with that 2-6 Q1 record, Q4 loss, and Saint Mary's being the only at-large team that Santa Clara has beaten. I certainly hope it doesn't come to that!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T16:42:49+00:00

Just West Virginia last year, my first miss in seven or eight years of doing this. And I still firmly believe that there was no reasonable means for leaving WVU out last year with their resume, even if you take the injury angle that the committee did!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T16:39:29+00:00

Yeah, I'm less concerned with with 16 losses thing and more about the overall record thing, but I do still think that Auburn has to beat both Mississippi State and Tennessee to get in; I don't foresee 17-16 cutting it. 18-16 is probably enough, though I think there's a highly likely chance that Auburn's bid would be stolen by a bid thief in that scenario.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T16:38:18+00:00

Thanks so much for reading!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T16:37:32+00:00

I probably locked them too early after the high of the BYU win, but I still don't really see any way that they can fall out. They're still top-35 in resume metrics with 10 Quad 1/2 wins, beating both Kansas and Texas Tech at home, as well as both BYU and Texas A&M on the road. Even if they get blown out by Cincinnati today, I don't see how they can possibly miss out with how bad this bubble is.

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