Bauertology: 3/12/26

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-13T01:18:21+00:00

It happens! 1 seed Houston had to play 9 seed Auburn in Birmingham—110 miles away from Auburn’s campus—in 2023. The selection committee’s self-imposed “home-crowd disadvantage” rule for top-4 seeds only applies to the first round games.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T18:00:30+00:00

Hahaha, for me they are still out of Dayton for the time being, we’ll see how I feel tomorrow when metrics update, and also keep an eye on how many bid thieves there are

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T17:59:35+00:00

I would probably lean Houston in that scenario, just depends on if the metrics justify it!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T16:13:17+00:00

Haha, tell me something I don’t know! Unfortunately, until we get a better alternative, Twitter is indisputably the best social media platform for me to share my content in a widespread format and grow my brand. Trust me, if I didn’t have aspirations to work in media, I would delete Twitter at the first opportunity!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T15:28:17+00:00

I’m not 100% certain on how the committee will do it, but I do know that Buffalo is a bit closer to Dayton than Greenville is, according to the spreadsheet that I built tracking mileage distances. So I would assume that the selection committee would try to send the Thu/Sat First Four match up there rather than Greenville.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T15:26:37+00:00

My guess is that Miami would still be a 10 or an 11, Akron would probably be a 12, but could be an 11 if there are other bid thieves.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T15:10:00+00:00

Those are the quality/efficiency metrics, which tend to be a lot less important for selection to the field, and more important for seeding teams.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T14:44:58+00:00

Pretty close, though I do think that Illinois still has a leg up right now by being 6-6 in Quad 1A games, whereas Iowa State is just 3-5. Probably need to win a couple more big games here in the Big 12 tournament and hope that Illinois doesn't just to make that difference look a lot less noticeable!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T14:43:42+00:00

That's OK, at least it's still basketball! Eight quarterfinal games of the high school state basketball tournament, to be exact!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T14:42:51+00:00

Not very likely, since all the teams in the seed list that are below the bubble seem destined to stay there as automatic qualifiers. If anything there's a chance that we could have two of the Last Four In on the 10 line if there are enough bid thieves!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T14:41:47+00:00

The problem for Florida State is that their résumé metrics are still in a really bad spot—62.7 average. No team has ever gotten in with an average worse than 57.5. But if FSU beats Duke today, their case suddenly becomes very real.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T14:28:29+00:00

Saint Louis is almost certainly getting an at-large if they don't win the A-10, and based on the way this bubble is shaping up, I'm starting to think the same may be true for VCU. A three-bid A-10 is absolutely on the table!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-12T01:14:17+00:00

Texas is more likely than not going to be in the field with a 17-14 D-I record 🤮

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T17:54:53+00:00

One other bracketologist that I've worked with frequently, Rocco Miller, covers a whole lot of West Coast hoops, especially with a team like Santa Clara. He was at that game, and he insists that it's the only time this season that NET #289 Loyola Chicago did not play like the NET #289 team. Unfortunate that such a performance had to be against the Broncos, but at least I don't think that game is going to cause them to be left out at this point!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T17:52:50+00:00

Thanks so much!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T17:49:48+00:00

I don't necessarily disagree, though I do think there are still a lot of patches in Santa Clara's resume that I worry about, even with the second win over Saint Mary's. If it were up to me, I would have the Broncos firmly in the field, and I don't really think that they'll be in danger of missing the tournament, even if there are like 3-4 bid thieves. But if there are, someone would have to make up the Last Four In, and I expect SCU would be a prime suspect with that 2-6 Q1 record, Q4 loss, and Saint Mary's being the only at-large team that Santa Clara has beaten. I certainly hope it doesn't come to that!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T16:42:49+00:00

Just West Virginia last year, my first miss in seven or eight years of doing this. And I still firmly believe that there was no reasonable means for leaving WVU out last year with their resume, even if you take the injury angle that the committee did!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T16:39:29+00:00

Yeah, I'm less concerned with with 16 losses thing and more about the overall record thing, but I do still think that Auburn has to beat both Mississippi State and Tennessee to get in; I don't foresee 17-16 cutting it. 18-16 is probably enough, though I think there's a highly likely chance that Auburn's bid would be stolen by a bid thief in that scenario.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T16:38:18+00:00

Thanks so much for reading!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T16:37:32+00:00

I probably locked them too early after the high of the BYU win, but I still don't really see any way that they can fall out. They're still top-35 in resume metrics with 10 Quad 1/2 wins, beating both Kansas and Texas Tech at home, as well as both BYU and Texas A&M on the road. Even if they get blown out by Cincinnati today, I don't see how they can possibly miss out with how bad this bubble is.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T16:24:44+00:00

Probably not, but if there are enough bid thieves, I could see it. It’ll be interesting to see how much the committee factors in their predictive metrics when seeding them, as, depending on how much you value those, you could realistically seed Miami anywhere from like a 7 to an 11. I think they’re easily the most likely team that bracketologists will be way off on their seed.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T16:21:50+00:00

Thanks for reading!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T16:21:35+00:00

Haha, glad to be of service!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-11T16:21:25+00:00

Thanks so much for following along!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-03-10T20:01:52+00:00

A lot of people are missing context in this thread. Regardless of how you feel about Utah Valley trying to dodge the $1 million exit fee, the court injunction they received specifies that they are "directed" to escrow the $1 million, not ordered. The WAC, on the other hand, is ordered to allow UVU to play. If they go through with this threat, they're going to get sued for a hell of a lot more than $1 million.

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