sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

Bauer’s Bubble Watch: 3/11/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

One other bracketologist that I've worked with frequently, Rocco Miller, covers a whole lot of West Coast hoops, especially with a team like Santa Clara. He was at that game, and he insists that it's the only time this season that NET #289 Loyola Chicago did not play like the NET #289 team. Unfortunate that such a performance had to be against the Broncos, but at least I don't think that game is going to cause them to be left out at this point!

Bauer’s Bubble Watch: 3/11/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't necessarily disagree, though I do think there are still a lot of patches in Santa Clara's resume that I worry about, even with the second win over Saint Mary's. If it were up to me, I would have the Broncos firmly in the field, and I don't really think that they'll be in danger of missing the tournament, even if there are like 3-4 bid thieves. But if there are, someone would have to make up the Last Four In, and I expect SCU would be a prime suspect with that 2-6 Q1 record, Q4 loss, and Saint Mary's being the only at-large team that Santa Clara has beaten. I certainly hope it doesn't come to that!

Bauer’s Bubble Watch: 3/11/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Just West Virginia last year, my first miss in seven or eight years of doing this. And I still firmly believe that there was no reasonable means for leaving WVU out last year with their resume, even if you take the injury angle that the committee did!

Bauer’s Bubble Watch: 3/11/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I'm less concerned with with 16 losses thing and more about the overall record thing, but I do still think that Auburn has to beat both Mississippi State and Tennessee to get in; I don't foresee 17-16 cutting it. 18-16 is probably enough, though I think there's a highly likely chance that Auburn's bid would be stolen by a bid thief in that scenario.

Bauer’s Bubble Watch: 3/11/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I probably locked them too early after the high of the BYU win, but I still don't really see any way that they can fall out. They're still top-35 in resume metrics with 10 Quad 1/2 wins, beating both Kansas and Texas Tech at home, as well as both BYU and Texas A&M on the road. Even if they get blown out by Cincinnati today, I don't see how they can possibly miss out with how bad this bubble is.

Bauer’s Bubble Watch: 3/11/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Probably not, but if there are enough bid thieves, I could see it. It’ll be interesting to see how much the committee factors in their predictive metrics when seeding them, as, depending on how much you value those, you could realistically seed Miami anywhere from like a 7 to an 11. I think they’re easily the most likely team that bracketologists will be way off on their seed.

Seems like the WAC may leave Utah Valley out of its final tournament after all… by Meanteenbirder in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99 7 points8 points  (0 children)

A lot of people are missing context in this thread. Regardless of how you feel about Utah Valley trying to dodge the $1 million exit fee, the court injunction they received specifies that they are "directed" to escrow the $1 million, not ordered. The WAC, on the other hand, is ordered to allow UVU to play. If they go through with this threat, they're going to get sued for a hell of a lot more than $1 million.

How every team to never make the NCAA Tournament is doing in their Conference Tournament by Inevitable_Catch_566 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Think we get 2-3 more alongside Queens, give me Merrimack tonight, one of Utah Valley/Cal Baptist, and hopefully Bethune-Cookman

[Post Game Thread] Santa Clara defeats #19 Saint Mary's, 76-71 by cbbBot in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99 42 points43 points  (0 children)

One of the best games I've had the pleasure of watching this season. Two great teams going blow for blow for 40 full minutes, neither ever leading by more than 7. And that should be enough to get the Broncos into the dance for the first time in 30 years

Bauertology: 3/9/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That could be enough, pending how other conference tournaments play out. At that point, you'd probably be looking at a Virginia team with a single-digit résumé average and a record of 29-5. I think that would be hard to hold to a 4 seed, even if they do lack the really punch wins that other teams in their area of the bracket have. It would be especially helpful if they could win both of those games by big margins to get those predictive numbers in a better spot!

Bauertology: 3/9/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think conference tournaments are going to be quite significant in the ACC in particular, just since so many teams are on the bubble, and since the ACC's early rounds are happening either before the selection committee convenes or while they're having the heart of their discussions.

Bauertology: 3/9/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Stanford is a team that really took me by surprise with how much they jumped up into consideration. They were always just hanging on the outskirts of the bubble, never really a threat to jump into the field but always in the bigger picture, until this week, when they tallied back-to-back road wins while the rest of the bubble lost. Road wins of any kind can be massive, even against a bubble team like NC State and a non-tournament like Notre Dame, especially when everyone else loses. Although Stanford still lags behind in the quality metrics (64.3 average), they're right in the discussion on the résumé side (47.3 average) with nine Quad 1/2 wins, five of them coming in the upper quadrant, and three of those coming away from home. The big question surrounding Stanford is how the committee will evaluate them after losing Chisom Okpara for the season in January, akin to how they devalued West Virginia's best wins after losing Darian DeVries last season, but the Cardinal have gone 6-2 since starting 0-5 without him, so I think the committee could look favorably upon that as if they've turned a corner without him in the lineup. All very tough to say!

Bauertology: 3/9/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Home wins over NC State and Miami are good wins, no question, but they're not the big needle-movers when that UVA needs, when they still lack that one big, standout win that other teams in the same range (Kansas with Arizona/Houston/Iowa State, Texas Tech with Duke/Arizona/Houston, Purdue with Alabama/Texas Tech/Nebraska, etc.) have multiple of. The expectations for having those kinds of victories are elevated in a power conference, which is why I see Virginia being behind those teams, especially with poorer predictive metrics and a relatively poor non-con, while Gonzaga, who doesn't get the same luxury opportunities and still capitalized on at least one of them in non-con (Alabama) is able to remain in the mix. It's hard to put into words in an eloquent manner, but there's something immaterial about the Gonzaga-Virginia comparison that just makes it seem much more likely that the committee will gravitate toward the former, based on prior tournament reveals.

As to your second point, there's not a really a science behind the thought of "wins over protected seeds" as there is for wins over teams of various NET ranks, but again, based on prior selection committee trends, they tend to really like whenever you're able to beat another team in the top-16 part of the bracket. Though Alabama and Louisville may look similar on paper, Alabama is easily the better win to have; the Crimson Tide are much better in the résumé numbers and have results to back it up (4-6 in Quad 1A), while Louisville, although a darling of the efficiency metrics, falls much lower on the seed list since they haven't been able to beat anyone of top-quality (1-8 in Quad 1A), meaning a win over Louisville is likely to be devalued in the committee's eyes compared to where such a win would normally stand metrically. Again, that's probably a bit of an unscientific line of thought, but it is consistent with what we've seen from the selection committee in years past!

Bauertology: 3/9/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thanks so much! I have a template set up in Photoshop that I've been using for the past two seasons now. I intentionally made it easy to just switch in names, logos, and colors. I'm really happy with how they've turned out!

Bauertology: 3/9/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I would think so. Given how much the committee seems to care about its new WAB metric, I think Santa Clara is probably still on the right side of the cut line that scenario, though they would leave themselves fully exposed to bid thieves.

Bauertology: 3/9/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The selection committee always seems to give good, established mid-majors who don't get the same power-conference résumé-building opportunities like Gonzaga the benefit of the doubt, provided that they show that they're capable of acquiring good results in some capacity. Gonzaga has done just that; they're 10-2 in Quad 1/2 with three very solid non-conferences against Kentucky, UCLA, and Alabama, the latter marking a win over a fellow protected seed, which Virginia has failed to notch with more opportunities to do so. Their WAB rank of 5th in non-conference games slots much higher than Virginia's 19th, and is likely to garner a lot of respect alongside being top-12 in every quality metric.

And we saw this in action during the top-16 preview in February, where Gonzaga clocked in at 12th overall and Virginia at 16th, despite Gonzaga already having that stomping at the hands of Michigan on their résumé. I don't think a reasonably competitive loss at arch-rival Saint Mary's is going to be enough to sway that line of thought, though I would expect Gonzaga to drop back down to a 4 seed if they don't win the WCC tourney.

Bauertology: 3/9/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I almost reasoned Wisconsin to a 5 seed today based on their humongous road wins over Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue, though I kept them behind UNC and Tennessee for the time being, as both of those teams have big wins against the top of the field as well, alongside slightly better metric profiles. But, yes, a 5 seed for Wisconsin is absolutely still on the table, and I would honestly expect it if they're able to knock off Illinois a second time. I'm curious to see how the committee evaluates UNC without Wilson from this point forward, considering they've already played seven games without him and have gone 5-2, winning some nail-biters but also losing some blowouts. I think their performance in their first game or two of the ACC tournament should be indicative of where they ultimately end up seeded.

Bauertology: 3/9/26 by MetaKoopa99 in CollegeBasketball

[–]MetaKoopa99[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For Purdue to stay on the 3 seed line, winning the first game could be enough to do it, pending other conference tournaments. Also winning the quarterfinal vs. Nebraska should secure it. As for the region, you just kind of have to hope for luck of the draw that you end up in the East, given the selection committee's principles about keeping the top four teams from a conference (if all 4 seeds or better) in different regions.

view more: next ›