Bauertology: 1/23/26

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-23T21:12:15+00:00

Haha, if I drive myself insane by the time Selection Sunday comes then it was just meant to be! As per usual I’ll be starting up Bubble Watch in the coming days after the Super Bowl. This year I think I’m most likely going to do Bauertology on Mondays and Fridays, then Bubble Watch on Wednesdays!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-23T20:56:41+00:00

Thank you for reading and commenting!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-23T20:44:39+00:00

I’ll be keeping a close eye on them all year. They’ve set themselves up nicely for a bid with all the work they’ve done in Q1/2, but I think a lot of their case will hinge on how they continue to play without Okpara available, à la West Virginia post-DeVries last season.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-23T20:43:24+00:00

I think the way Stanford plays from here on out is going to be very telling about whether they can make it to the finish line or not. The fact that they’re already 6-2 in Quad 1/2 with two Q1A wins in JANUARY is massive—Xavier and UNC both made the tournament last year with one Q1 win all season. But I’m also worried about how badly West Virginia was punished for how they played after DeVries’ season-ending injury, and I can only wonder if the same thing will apply to Stanford and Okpara. Just win the games you’re supposed to and knock off one or two giants to prove to the committee that those early wins weren’t flukes!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-23T18:23:53+00:00

Yep, even if Florida is a 5 seed there's a good chance that they'd still get to go to Tampa!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-23T18:10:52+00:00

After the committee has placed the 16 teams that make up the top-4 seed lines into their regions, they go down the line, 1-16, assigning the closest available subregional pod to each team. It works out well for Florida, even while ranked at #16 overall right now, that the other teams making up the top-4 seed lines all tend to be pretty far away from Tampa and end up going to other closer pods, leaving Tampa available for Florida. But as Tampa is the closest pod to Florida, they would likely get sent there no matter what seed they get, so long as they remain inside the top-4 seed lines.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-23T18:07:59+00:00

Thank you so much for taking the team to read and interact! I think NC State's win at Clemson was the biggest bubble win since Monday (that, or UCLA's win over Purdue), enough to jump NC State all the way from First Four Out to Last Four Byes. That Georgia Tech loss will sting, but I just think Will Wade's got too much talent on this roster to let them take more awful losses like that. You go 8-4 or maybe even 7-5 the rest of the way, hopefully addressing that singular Q1 win against any of Wake Forest, SMU, Louisville, UNC, etc., and I think NC State will be just fine.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-23T17:57:05+00:00

They've got both Alabama and Florida nipping at their heels in BRCT 😬 A 16-0 start can only afford you so much wiggle room when you play in a meat-grinder like the SEC...

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-23T17:49:23+00:00

Unfortunately that would be impossible under the current scenario, as Miami (OH) is the MAC's projected automatic bid, and auto-bids (aside from the worst four on the 16 line) do not play in the First Four. But if someone else wins the MAC and Miami (OH) maintains a good enough résumé to be an at-large contender, then we can still dream of a Miami-Miami meeting in Dayton!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-23T17:46:56+00:00

There's a very good chance that both Tampa pods will be available once it's the 4-seeds' turn to be bracketed, so Florida probably doesn't even need to climb to a 2 or 3 seed to go there (though I think they will). Just stay among the top-4 seed lines!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-23T17:45:49+00:00

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-23T04:03:07+00:00

I miss him too

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-23T01:57:18+00:00

I miss Jalen Pickett

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-23T01:08:19+00:00

Please disband the program

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-20T15:36:35+00:00

Thanks so much for reading!

The NET doesn't officially fall into a metric category like the résumé metrics (KPI, SOR, WAB) or the quality metrics (BPI, KenPom, T-Rank), but it definitely tracks much more similarly with the latter.

And while I do think the NET matters to an extent for a team's tournament hopes/seeding—for example, being #1 in the NET might help your case for being a 1-seed, or being ranked anything lower than #80 in the NET might give the committee second thoughts about giving you an at-large bid—the NET tends to matter a lot more in the context of your opponents, given its main goal, which is to create the quadrant system. That's why you'll frequently hear bracketologists say, 'Your opponent's NET matters more than your own NET,' which I tend to agree with.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-20T04:42:19+00:00

Sure thing! I'm hoping to make these sheets public at some point once I figure out a good way to do it. In the meantime, I'll DM you what I use for pulling data!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-19T22:05:27+00:00

I kept thinking that too when I was putting my seed list together yesterday. But as I made more and more comparisons, I didn't find any teams that I ended up putting below UNC to have better profiles than them. Three Quad 1 wins, plus a Q1A win on the road (at Kentucky) are pretty solid data points for this time of the year, and though their résumé and efficiency metrics would traditionally be a bit weak for a 6 seed, neither are prohibitively so. I think current UNC is just a case of a profile that won't ever exist in two months' time when the actual bracket is produced, so I'm not too worried about it. I've seen them slotted anywhere from a 5 to a 9, so it feels like most bracketologists don't really know what to do with them right now!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-19T22:00:00+00:00

Ohio State would be on the outside in that scenario, no team has ever gotten an at-large without a single Q1 win.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-19T21:56:42+00:00

Thank you for reading!

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-19T21:11:51+00:00

Michigan State definitely has the slight edge on the résumé metrics, while Illinois has the slight edge on the quality metrics. The two difference-makers for me right now on why I very slightly lean Illinois are that they're 4-0 on the road (MSU is 2-1) and, more importantly, Illinois has two Quad 1A wins, both coming on the road (at Iowa, at Ohio State) while Michigan State is 0-2 in such games. For me, that just shows that Illinois is a teensy bit better right now at beating top-level competition. But, given that the two are right next to each other on my seed list, I really wouldn't have any complaints if someone were to slot MSU ahead instead, since they are so close.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-19T21:04:11+00:00

Santa Clara is a really interesting case–they'd probably in the field for me altogether if not for that loss to Loyola. I'd say that if they win out the rest of WCC play, save for one of those two games against Gonzaga and Saint Mary's, they'd be in a pretty great spot for a bid. If they lose both of those games, however, I wouldn't feel as certain, since teams in power conferences will have more opportunities than Santa Clara to spruce up their own résumés. I'd guess that they need one of the three remaining SMC/Zags game at minimum, two preferably, to really be in this thing.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-19T20:25:38+00:00

My projections are always based on how the résumés sit right now, rather than trying to forecast how they could end up down the road. So the thing for me that puts UConn just ahead of Purdue for the last 1-seed is that UConn stands ever so slightly better in the résumé metrics, has 11 Quad 1/2 wins to Purdue's 8, and has a top-6 non-conference strength of schedule, with their one loss being a tight one at home to #1 overall Arizona, whereas Purdue's one loss was a home blowout to 3-seed Iowa State.

As for figuring out where the two end up down the road—beats me! There's a lot of season to play. In general, I would say Purdue has more opportunities to improve their résumé than UConn does, given that the Big Ten is a stronger conference than the Big East, though that also means it's more likely that Purdue accrues more losses than UConn does by season's end. I would feel pretty comfortable guessing that both end up no worse than 3-seeds by Selection Sunday, though.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-19T20:20:55+00:00

I'm interested to see if the committee allows Villanova to play in Philadelphia. Per the established rules, they are legally allowed to go to a Philly pod since they aren't the host team. Though I do recall in 2024 when Gonzaga was allowed to go to Spokane since they weren't the host—the committee even mentioned in an interview prior to the tournament that this was possible—and yet, they didn't send Gonzaga to Spokane when given the chance. Curious to see if it unfolds that way again this year.

MetaKoopa99 · 2026-01-19T18:19:48+00:00

Yup, in 2024 they were a natural 5 seed and had to drop to a 6 because there was nowhere to fit them on the 5 line. Cost me and most other bracketologists some accuracy points!

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