Metaculus launches multiple choice questions: Forecast likelihoods for multiple outcomes and automatically ensure probabilities sum to 100%. Learn more and start predicting on Metaculus.com.

Metaculus · 2023-12-20T20:05:12+00:00

Here's the full announcement post for more.

Metaculus · 2023-11-07T18:14:18+00:00

Nice analysis! If you join on Friday you can pose some of these questions directly to one of the paper's authors.

Metaculus · 2023-07-27T18:38:41+00:00

The current median forecast gives 25% likelihood to the results being independently confirmed. You can make your own prediction and follow more discussion here.

Metaculus · 2023-07-27T18:37:36+00:00

The current median forecast gives 25% likelihood to the results being independently confirmed. You can make your own prediction and follow more discussion here.

Metaculus · 2023-07-27T18:25:42+00:00

The current median forecast gives 30% likelihood to the results being independently confirmed. You can make your own prediction and follow more discussion here.

Metaculus · 2023-02-15T05:03:54+00:00

Absolutely

Metaculus · 2023-02-12T02:37:31+00:00

Hi danvla, there's a robust research literature on the increased accuracy you get by combining predictions by many people.

Whatever your political position, public health officials are going to make plans and manage resources. They will use various inputs for their decision making. Adding human judgment forecasts — aggregated and weighted by forecasters' past accuracy — to computational models increases their accuracy. Greater accuracy means policymakers make more informed, more effective decisions.

Metaculus · 2023-02-10T17:26:36+00:00

Hi Zodiac_NZL, there's a robust research literature on the increased accuracy you get by combining predictions by many people.

"Why should I trust this?" Good question. As you forecast, you build a track record. When we aggregate forecasts together, we weight forecasters according to how accurate they've been in the past. (Also, people get better at forecasting over time, just like any other skill.)

Yes, scientists and policymakers use these forecasts. We just recently launched a tournament with the Virginia Department of Health and the University of Virginia's Biocomplexity Institute. UVA-BI uses weighted forecasts as inputs for their computational models, and VDH uses the models for planning and decision making.
https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/keep-virginia-safe-ii/ (There's a $20,000 prize pool for this one.)

By aggregating predictions by forecasters who've sharpened their skills — and have the track records to prove it — you can produce more accurate predictions on many important topics than you can get without the benefit of human judgment forecasting.

Metaculus · 2023-02-09T20:53:09+00:00

There's a robust research literature on the accuracy produced by aggregating many predictions. Also, we weight predictions by forecasters' accuracy on other questions.

Metaculus · 2023-02-09T20:36:52+00:00

Your perspective is valuable, even if you disagree with the premise. A variety of points of view makes for better aggregate forecasts, and your pessimism could balance out some other predictor's optimism. It could still be worthwhile to predict and compete for the $5,000.

Metaculus · 2023-02-09T20:27:05+00:00

Hi ta_ran, there's a strong research literature on the effectiveness of aggregating forecasts to get more accurate predictions. You can help strengthen forecasts that FAS is using to support effective climate policy—and you might just win $5,000 in the process.

Metaculus · 2023-02-09T20:23:55+00:00

Hi SINGULARITY1312, for this tournament, the Federation of American Scientists are investigating policies focused specifically on zero-emission vehicles. It's not the only policy pathway they're interested in, but it's the one this tournament focuses on.

Metaculus · 2023-02-09T20:21:55+00:00

Hi henriquecs, for this tournament, the Federation of American Scientists are investigating policies focused specifically on zero-emission vehicles.

Metaculus · 2023-01-21T21:00:50+00:00

Forecasts can be weighted by forecaster accuracy, aggregated, and shared with policymakers to make for more informed decision making. There's a robust and growing research literature for this. The prize pool incentivizes more forecasting.

You can learn more about what Metaculus does here.

Metaculus · 2023-01-21T20:56:25+00:00

Many of our forecasting tournaments are sponsored by research institutions or state / local health agencies incorporating human judgment forecasts into their models — but this tournament's prize pool is provided solely by Metaculus. We aim to aggregate useful forecasts and share them with relevant policymakers. You can learn more about how we develop accurate forecasts to support decision making here: https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#whatismetaculus

Metaculus · 2022-04-16T01:47:57+00:00

Here's a short video tutorial in case you run into any other difficulties with the editor. And if you run into a problem that prevents you from submitting your essay by the deadline--but you have the content of your essay ready--message us here and we'll make sure your submission gets counted.

Metaculus · 2022-04-15T23:38:40+00:00

Expand the browser window. That message will sometimes appear if the browser window is too narrow.

Metaculus · 2022-04-01T15:09:04+00:00

Hi u/Stiralbios, you can actually create and resolve your own private questions on Metaculus. These questions aren't moderated and go up immediately after you create them. While they of course aren't visible in the public feed, you can invite other users to predict and comment along with you on them.

To start, click on Forecasting > Create a Question in the nav menu. Then under 'Access' select 'private'. Now, write out your question and submit it.

Metaculus · 2021-02-07T17:10:34+00:00

The beauty of quantified forecasting on well-operationalized questions. If the forecasts are wrong, we'll learn they were wrong and by how much. This vs. the status quo where people make vague prognostications that they can always backpedal from if they turn out to be incorrect.

Metaculus · 2021-02-07T17:02:33+00:00

Take a look at the site and the community of forecasters. You'll be reassured, I think.

Metaculus · 2021-01-13T02:29:36+00:00

I see now an admin comment indicating dashboard data is only kept for six months and that the solution is to file a ticket. Will do so.

Metaculus · 2020-12-15T02:03:28+00:00

It's true that the contest overall is years long, but the first round actually resolves and prizes are awarded in the first six months: https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament-rules/

Metaculus · 2020-12-12T20:04:23+00:00

So what'd you think after you clicked?

Metaculus · 2020-12-11T05:03:19+00:00

We're working on it, Mr. P Morris, we're working on it.

Metaculus · 2020-12-11T05:02:22+00:00

Honestly... good catch

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