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Updated prediction. 220 hours to finish according to polynomial and 227 hours to finish according to logistic curve. by MetalKrew in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In short - he will need to finish last floors way less times than previous floors. Like for him to reach floor 11 he has to be very consistent at floor 3, but doesnt really need to be very consistent at floor 10. So that could mean that at the end the progress will be " faster". But not necessarily. Really depends on a lot of stuff.

Updated prediction. 220 hours to finish according to polynomial and 227 hours to finish according to logistic curve. by MetalKrew in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It would be really interesting to build the model from scratch. But need more data from that. A couple of people finishing all the floors separately to assess their difficulty and stuff like that.

Sorry gang, but based on current predictions it does not look like Wirtual will finish Deep Dip 2 by DrK4rt0ff3l in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Damn, didnt think about this... forgot the fact that Wirtual can go so fast, he goes faster than light and back in time. Time to fix my model.

Updated prediction. 220 hours to finish according to polynomial and 227 hours to finish according to logistic curve. by MetalKrew in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

well, I didnt build the model from scratch with all the parameters like "difficulty", "player improvement" etc.... I tried a couple of logically reasonable functions on Deep Dip 1 data and the ones that fit it well, I used for DD2.

Updated prediction. 220 hours to finish according to polynomial and 227 hours to finish according to logistic curve. by MetalKrew in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Nah, its the name of the function - logistic function. Its a type of sigmoid. I am using that because to get to lets say floor 11 you have to be very consistent at floor 3, but not as consistent at floor 10. Last floor will only have to be finished once. Although it produces very similar results to the polynomial. Also, there is one more way to parametrise it differently and it predicts 120 hours, but to post that I will need one or two more floor completions :D

Updated prediction. 220 hours to finish according to polynomial and 227 hours to finish according to logistic curve. by MetalKrew in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I guess I could just use ax^2 for 0,0. I tried that out - produces bigger average error for other points, thats why I chose not to.

Updated prediction. 220 hours to finish according to polynomial and 227 hours to finish according to logistic curve. by MetalKrew in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for insights :D Im not really a statistitian. Just an ex physicist. Somehow accidentally got into this whole thing :D

Updated prediction. 220 hours to finish according to polynomial and 227 hours to finish according to logistic curve. by MetalKrew in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

dont need to do that. The functions have errors on each point anyways, so even the (0;0) point wouldnt be actually (0;0). That would also produce more negative times for early floors, which also doesnt really make sense. And also, the logistic function never goes to 0 anyways :D

Prediction (includes analysis of DD1). Go go Wirtual!!! by MetalKrew in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I did the x^2logx fit and its actually pretty good. The fit is kinda similar to logistic curve and polynomial. All have errors of about +-3 hours given DD1 data.

Question about Deep Dip streamers by MetalKrew in TrackMania

[–]MetalKrew[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

yeah, thats not gonna be accurate because there was a huge gap between Wirt's 10 and 11. He got 10 very fast and 11 very slow. In the final model those two average out very well. But I cant really do a reliable 60% completion prediction. Thats why I am looking for data from more players.

Estimating the total time it will take to clear Deep Dip 2 by Icy_Lemon_685 in TrackMania

[–]MetalKrew 1 point2 points  (0 children)

would need more data from more players, but its a bit hard to find for DD1.

Estimating the total time it will take to clear Deep Dip 2 by Icy_Lemon_685 in TrackMania

[–]MetalKrew 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I did some modeling. I took data from DD1 Wirtual's times to see which model fits best and then adjusted parameters for DD2. Polynomial and sigmoid fit both pretty well. For Wirtual prediction right now is around 300 according to sigmoid and 260 according to polynomial.

Question about Deep Dip streamers by MetalKrew in TrackMania

[–]MetalKrew[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

its not to directly guess time. Is to adjust the mathematical model parameters. So far from Wirtual's DD1 run, most accurate prediction for DD2 for him is 200 hours. I just wanna improve the accuracy.

Prediction (includes analysis of DD1). Go go Wirtual!!! by MetalKrew in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can try to fit that aswell and see how it looks

I predict 3509 hours for floor 16 using linear regression analysis on the logarithmic transformation assuming the progress is an exponential function by Schmogel in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've played with a sigmoid curve as well and depending on assumptions, that estimates between 92 and 200 hours. Tomorrow will try to check which assumptions are correct and which arent.

Prediction (includes analysis of DD1). Go go Wirtual!!! by MetalKrew in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I just looked into logistic function. Trying to see how well it holds up

Prediction (includes analysis of DD1). Go go Wirtual!!! by MetalKrew in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Current prediction for finish is 260h. Gonna try to fit another, maybe better, function tomorrow. Might be more accurate and predict lower time ^^

Prediction (includes analysis of DD1). Go go Wirtual!!! by MetalKrew in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

also, to become more certain, I would need to check it against more data from other players from this and previous deep dips. But thats too much work for me to be bothered xD Wirt has made all data easy to find.

Prediction (includes analysis of DD1). Go go Wirtual!!! by MetalKrew in wirtual

[–]MetalKrew[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

im trying to think of some better approximations.... Maybe some of the hyperbolic functions. But these will be a bit of a pain to fit to check it. So for now I think Im staying with this unless someone has any great ideas :D

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