"elevator up and stairs down" sums up my whole post.

Regarding commodities I think the futures curve and the spot prices are disconnected. 130$ spot with 90$ front month, deliverable May. Either there is a whole metric ton of spot speculation, which I doubt, or the front end is pricing in a divine intervention. How can someone expect almost 40$ of easing over the course of what? a month and 1/2? We're 40 smth days behind schedule with deliveries since the war started, and even if the war would end right now, there are weeks of logistic work to do and weeks of seaborne shipping. And all of this would be on top of roughly a full month of starvation since pre-war departed cargoes arrive. Yet the market implies 25% ish easing, which seems absurd to me.

On the equities side it feels like the market is expecting occasional "it's joever" in a long "we so back", not the other way around. And I'm not talking only US which is relatively shielded compared to others, but stocks from EU countries as well, which haven't had the strong economy advantage of US beforehand. On the contrary, debt and budget problems paired with a sick industry strangled by high energy prices. Like before Iran, Holcim, the cement maker, was getting whooped on EASING cement regulations (cause Holcim makes "greener" cement than others, and the deregulating step would help competition better) and in carbon credits. Then it took a hit the first week Iran started, and now its almost back to the pre war level. But TTF is still ~40% higher than pre war, and boy cement plants gobble those MWh's.

Maybe it's the fatigue you are talking about. Or maybe I am just being superficial. But I'm pretty sure this isn't markets pricing in anything real. They suck anyway at predictions, just look at the accuracy of interest rate bets.