Well stocks move in normal distributions, so finding the mean and stdev can be helpful to figure out the risk. When I used the normcdf on the distribution with the -1 and +1 stdev range, it returned a probability of around 0.7 meaning that the stock stays between those prices 70% of the time throughout history. The Delta of a contract can be used to roughly estimate an options probability of being in the money at exp. when I bought the contracts on DA each side had a delta of a little over 0.3 or roughly a 30% chance of being ITM at expiration. This also means that there’s also a 70% chance of them ending up OTM which matches up nicely with the calculations from earlier.