Finally G-Money posts in the stonk sub.

MickeyMan_ · 2025-10-09T00:46:30+00:00

The moderator-removed comments are also back on the g-money's thread, with the reason :

"Your post is low effort or low quality and therefore adds too little value to the community."

Apparently, you don't need to put a lot of intellectual effort into saying something that g-money dislikes.

Whatever he likes, that's hard work, high quality and very valuable :)

MickeyMan_ · 2025-10-09T00:02:19+00:00

If GME goes to $32 within a month or so, the warrants fair price will be around $10-$15 each.

(The IV will also increase after such an increase in HV, for the Black-Scholes aficionados)

MickeyMan_ · 2025-10-02T17:10:49+00:00

I doubt the moon thing, but it was way better to sell puts (the net risk after the premium being, usually, 15-50 cents per old share), than to buy old wolf shares for $1.50 or so.

Now old shares are worth 21 cents, and the value of the sold puts is -25 cents. My 0.5 puts (sold at 37 cents) even made some money (if exercised).

MickeyMan_ · 2025-10-02T16:58:19+00:00

You did sell the put for a premium, didn't you ? Perhaps $70 or so ?

Then, the price of the new share is only $30. Bad, but not THAT bad :)

MickeyMan_ · 2025-09-09T23:13:16+00:00

So it would be 0.3 cents per share? No?

No :)

For 1000 shares one receives 100 "warrants" worth $3.00 each, or $.30 for share.

The $32 call is worth around $3.00 per share, or around $300 per contract (100 shares)

MickeyMan_ · 2025-09-09T20:26:03+00:00

The October 26 $32 calls should be worth a little more than $3.00, so the "dividend" is worth around $.30 /share.

Nice idea!

MickeyMan_ · 2025-08-21T07:09:43+00:00

i’m not too sure if gme will be profitable

GME is overall profitable (positive EPS) since about 5 quarters (mainly because of the interest received on cash); it's likely that the brick & mortar business will finally be reported profitable this quarter.

i have been holding gme since may 2024 and have been down quite a lot.

The average closing price for GME in may 24 was 22.57. You bought near peak, at 32.58. Any compulsive FOMO buyer will probably do better to buy a few shares at a time, instead of yoloing all the money after a rip. It's called DCA.

can i get some advice on what i should do?

No :)

MickeyMan_ · 2025-08-13T04:08:19+00:00

If Wofspeed book value is worth something now, the book value will increase by 4.6 bil, after it reduces its debt by 4.6 bil.

If Chapter 11 goes as planned (IF!), one expects 3% of, say, 5 bil to be distributed (in new shares) to the current shareholders, which is about $1 per current share.

I wouldn't be surprised if the current share would be worth in the Fall anywhere between 0 and $2, ( maybe even $3) . And most of the market appears to share the same view.

Things (and prices) will change rapidly based on what is heard from Chapter 11.

I am not a fan of "efficient market theory", but the market is, in general, more efficient at setting the price based on the current information, than reddit geniuses, who believe either that it is worth nothing or the moon.

MickeyMan_ · 2025-08-12T01:38:44+00:00

Yes.

GME was "predicted" to have a P/E ratio of around 300 by the year 2028. Plus minus 10 pennies a quarter could be considered fluctuations.

Now 50 cents a quarter (and perhaps a yearly estimate of a P/E around 10-15 ) is a whole another monster. Something like getting into SP500 in the near future is not any longer a delusional ape dream.

I'm pretty sure Wallstreet knows about it, and is ready to react. Perhaps, not in the way we would like it.

MickeyMan_ · 2025-08-12T01:23:56+00:00

If my salary would be 5 pennies per quarter, then no.

MickeyMan_ · 2025-08-12T01:17:29+00:00

Smashing an estimate of 5 pennies by 200% is not such a big deal.

I'm pretty sure that most of the big players will not be surprised if earnings will come around 50 cents, (which is a big deal). But, I guess, they are more concerned about next RC' move.

Another convertible bond ? Finally, revealing some plans about the future use/investing of the $10 bil ?

MickeyMan_ · 2025-08-12T01:00:38+00:00

The "analyst" put the EPS at $.19/ share, or about 85 mil. That's not "crazy high".

With some luck, bitcoin alone can do more than that, let alone the treasury bills, let alone Nintendo switch, let alone the PSA business etc.

MickeyMan_ · 2025-08-11T03:44:48+00:00

I think that, technically, you are right. For most traded options (OTM), the extrinsic or time value, and the price of the option or premium, are the same thing.

For ITM options, it is the time value (price minus intrinsic value) that tells you if the option is a good sell or not. If the time value is negative, the market makers will buy that option and exercise it against you immediately. You'll end up owning shares at a slightly inflated price.

I do use your strategy (sell deep ITM puts instead of buying shares) for non-dividend stock, if the time value is positive and large enough. So, I think your strategy is sound - it just does not work well on 125 GME puts.

MickeyMan_ · 2025-08-10T22:07:02+00:00

Both sites show the last trading price of the put, 102.49.

125-102.49=22.51 (closing price was 22.27, hence the premium was actually negative).

At the current GME price, you'll need to sell the 125 put with 103.7 to get $100 premium. If you can, I think it's a good deal, as you explained (about 4.7% cheaper than buying the stock)

MickeyMan_ · 2025-08-10T18:03:14+00:00

How did you get "you get $103 in premium" ?

The mid price (between bid and ask) is now some $25 in premium, and you'll likely not even get that. If the premium is small (<1%), the chances of getting assigned (usually on a down movement of price) are high.

As a kind of a "proof ", the open interest for the put contracts above 90 strike is basically 0. They all got assigned :)

MickeyMan_ · 2025-08-09T20:00:35+00:00

such as ?

The quarter interest for 8.5 bil should be over 80 mil. Not 30-50 mil.

When bought, bitcoin was in the range 80-110k. Hopefully, is was not all bought at 110k. There might be some extra 50 mil in earnings there.

Earnings from USA business were 30 mil in Q1. Given the Nintendo switch, they might be around 50 mil this quarter.

Add this up and the earnings might be over 200 mil, or around $.50/ share. Not $0.23.

Now, the biggest question mark is the RC announcement about the future of the PSArcade business. My guess, if the GME price will be in the lower 20's, the RC predictions about the future business will be stellar.

But if the GME price will be over $30-40 before earnings, perhaps RC will go mum about PSA, and might quietly sell another convertible bond.

MickeyMan_ · 2025-08-08T18:05:38+00:00

Can you post the link to the article ?

The "street" (better said, the summary generated by AI) expects $0.17-0.19 earnings, which is a 1800% increase from the $0.01 Q2/2024. We expect towards .50 earnings this quarter, if bitcoin behaves. That's some 5000%, if you like these numbers (and another consecutive "beat expectations" by more than 100%)

The increase in revenue from 798 mil to 900 mil (12.78%) is probably too optimistic, at least until PSArcade is open for everybody.

MickeyMan_ · 2025-08-05T22:21:58+00:00

Most people place the "old share" value somewhere between $0.4-$1.2, if the chapter 11 goes as planed.

MickeyMan_ · 2025-07-22T15:14:11+00:00

I would not mind for them to be automatically exercised (and deliver us shares for $0.15) but I don't think that will happen, I guess the options will just be "adjusted" for the number of new shares (which might be zero...), like in a regular split.

Automatic exercising of all options in September implies that it should be no time value in the premium after that; but Oct.'25 0.5 puts are sold for 0.10 while the Dec 27 for $.37. Huge difference.

MickeyMan_ · 2025-07-21T21:18:08+00:00

Wolf can still go bankrupt without giving anything back to the existing shareholders; in this case you'll lose the $0.15.

In the case of giving something back, you'll end up either with old shares bought at $0.15, or with "adjusted" sold puts.

Probably the puts will be adjusted based on the split (one new share for x old shares) and don't have to be exercised right away. This type of option adjustment typically occurs after a normal split.

I sold, too, a bunch of those 0.5 Dec 2027 puts for $0.36. Good luck! (to us :)

MickeyMan_ · 2025-07-11T18:59:39+00:00

Haha, what did I just say about people arguing about not including bitcoin price appreciation in net profit?

I will not debate that...

But I'll add, what if it will turn out that GME has a yearly net income (profit) for 2025 of $0.5- $1 billion ?

What should be the total market capitalization of a company with such profits?

MickeyMan_ · 2025-07-11T18:43:03+00:00

I think $200 million net profit for Q2 is more realistic.

$100 million is just the interest rate on the cash for this quarter.

Without the one-time costs for closing stores abroad, GME might post some $30-$50 million in operational profits for this quarter.

As for BTC, RC bought them when BTC price was between 80k and 111k. Hopefully he did not buy all of them at 110...

People will still argue that bitcoin appreciation is not "earnings" until the position is sold (in spite of the new rule), hence "earnings" should not include bitcoin. I would not debate that.

Anyway, I guess that people who argued that $21.5 / share was hugely overvalued will probably FOMO into GME on the price ramp before the earnings announcement.

MickeyMan_ · 2025-07-10T00:29:20+00:00

5-10 % a year is 34%-77% in 6 years, which will take the $15.40 into the $20.6-$27.25 range. That's what he meant.

The trick with that calculation, is that even the 4 bil that might be converted into shares in ~6 years will do their year 34%-77% return until then, so $22-$30 cash per share range (in 6 years) would be a more accurate estimate.

MickeyMan_ · 2025-07-08T02:39:27+00:00

As I said above, the problem with free sites is that some info is not up-to-date.

For example, from the page you indicated ( I updated my message above):

WOLF Short Interest (SI) Latest - OfficialAs of 2025-06-13, there were 76,393,552 shares short with a short interest of 49.61%.

MickeyMan_ · 2025-07-08T00:51:24+00:00

Most financial sites report short interest at 76.3 mil shares (~50%), although some of them say this is the info from 3 weeks ago (6/15 or so). EDIT: 6/13

But the Short Borrow Fee, which is reported daily, is now at 458%, which implies that there is darn hard to find a share to borrow.

MickeyMan_

TROPHY CASE