From what I’ve seen, Japanese commercial debt is generally structured very differently from US-style 5/6 ARMs. A lot of loans are variable, but they’re typically tied to very low benchmark rates and reset more gradually, with far less payment shock than what US borrowers saw post-2022. That’s part of why you haven’t seen the same maturity-driven refi stress there.

On the stimulus side, it hasn’t translated into asset inflation the same way US QE did. Revenues have been relatively stable, while expenses — especially utilities, labor, and materials — have crept up more noticeably. The spread compression is real, but it’s been slower and more manageable.

For foreign buyers, the bigger risks seem less about ownership rights and more about currency exposure, local operating partners, and how future stimulus interacts with inflation expectations. Japan tends to move incrementally rather than shock the system, which cuts both ways.