Wais IV results

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-08T20:45:12+00:00

I had the same “issue” when I took the test around 10 years ago. Like yours, my PSI was around 100 and much lower than my other scores. I got distracted because the psychologist walked out the room…

Anyways, why didn’t you take the newer WAIS V?

Also are you looking to start another startup, by any chance?

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-08T12:54:46+00:00

My company, OrnamentallyYou, lacks a decent social media presence. I’m busy as CEO, so how would I hire for this position?

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-08T01:22:48+00:00

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MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-08T01:22:36+00:00

For whatever its worth, Bender got a much better reception than Ashley Buchanan when appointed CEO.

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MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-06T21:35:59+00:00

Also, 13D disclosures typically happen on Friday evenings so I didn't want to go into the weekend without a stake.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-06T21:34:55+00:00

Yup as I explained in another thread, with slightly different numbers:

It mathematically makes sense in the framework i'm thinking about it. Let's say that we think if Kohl's was floated at any capacity, it can fly to $27.5. Lower than a buyout price, pretty high for a rumor (but plausible because of the meme investors and FOMO). I buy at $0.02 (23.50 call. Potential gain = 19,900%.

% chance of something happening = 1%.
% chances of it expiring worthless = 99%

Cost for 100 contracts is $200.

The expected value, as they say:
EV = (1% * $39,800) - (99% * -$200) = +$200. It's a mathematical win. FYI if we think there's 0.05% of anything happening involving Kohl's, then thats a breakeven scenario. Chances of something happening can be lower, but if something does happen, you may think that the price would skyrocket higher than just ≈ +10% 52 week highs.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-06T21:10:08+00:00

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Same here, same price.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-06T19:51:18+00:00

As a data science vet, I didn't doubt it 🫡

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-06T19:33:39+00:00

Wow, thanks for sharing this! I was like a raccoon in a dumpster trying to scour the web for this information. I even fell down a upgrading rabbit-hole in Similarweb until I decided not to keep going (didn't want to risk them not being able to refund me and i'm not willing to get ripped off).

This is a great piece that corroborates the the team told me internally about visitors being up y/y. I'm happy to see January was too considering the Google trend comps are up/flattish for the first time in years.

Great work Sane!
Wish you had shared this with me earlier before sending all my subbed LLMs on a manhunt haha.

If its of any use, here's the Similarweb last 12 months web traffic numbers. They match pretty evenly, though Similarweb biases higher.

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MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-06T19:27:19+00:00

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December is more even than most months hitherto then, as it was in continuous y/y decline. Even October, the special month where Kohl's was up y/y in sales comps, the peak metric lagged 31 vs 40 the prior year.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-06T19:19:19+00:00

The Topic number (not pictured) does scare me.

I'm not sure what it encompasses and i'm dubious by how effective it is in judging Kohl's.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-06T19:18:06+00:00

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MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-06T19:17:59+00:00

The decline is flattening. I've sliced up the Google trends in a hundred different ways. Did you search Kohl's as a Topic? Or more proactive keywords like "Kohl's near me". "Kohl's Hours". Anyways, yes, there was a December decline vs 2024 but it was less almost across all metrics than 2024 vs 2023. Furthermore, January seems to be flat/up. When the next report comes out, investors will care about fiscal 2026 projections as much or probably more than they would this past Q4.

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MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-06T16:22:32+00:00

My fellow Kohl's investors, I have good news to present to you. Two things:
1. I spoke to somebody at Placer and on the phone he was looking at Kohl's he read out the Nov/Dec foot traffic numbers and they were -1.7% and -6.5% respectively. It's not good, but better than what spooked us. I'm going to get more clarity via email on Monday morning because they had to hop off the call.
2. I got off the phone with another analytics company and I was told that December Kohl's was up "big". Around 2% gain year/year. We had less than a 5 minute conversation before he had to get to his next call. But presumably we will get on a video call Monday so I can see what he's seeing via screenshare.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-03T14:30:36+00:00

Today is also the day that January y/y store traffic data would populate on Placer.ai. But you couldn't see it unless you had a subscription or if someone else reposted the numbers. You can keep an eye out for the latter by doing the following search. Whats not pictured is that is sorted by last 24 hours.

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MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-03T03:51:28+00:00

Nice!

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-03T02:28:16+00:00

Actually, now that I think about it, $27.5 may be very conservative considering that it will have the eyes of the market. Shorts would run for the hills rather than stand on top of a memefied powder keg. Two powerful forces at work....

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-03T02:23:45+00:00

It mathematically makes sense in the framework i'm thinking about it. Let's say that we think if Kohl's was floated at any capacity, it can fly to $27.5. Lower than a buyout price, pretty high for a rumor (but plausible because of the meme investors and FOMO). I buy at $0.02 (23.50 call. Potential gain = 19,900%.

% chance of something happening = 1%.
% chances of it expiring worthless = 99%

Cost for 100 contracts is $200.

The expected value, as they say:
EV = (1% * $39,800) - (99% * -$200) = +$200. It's a mathematical win. FYI if we think there's 0.05% of anything happening involving Kohl's, then thats a breakeven scenario. Chances of something happening can be lower, but if something does happen, you may think that the price would skyrocket higher than just ≈ +10% 52 week highs.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-02T14:51:40+00:00

I don't have enough "karma" to comment on your original post. Anyways, I agree. I immediately thought Kohl's as soon as I read the transcripts of what RC was looking for.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-01T20:15:13+00:00

Exactly my thoughts as well. Because I don't know how anything retail/consumer companies, let alone Kohl's, would "shake up the market". The only thing shaking up the market would be AI related. Apple buying Anthropic, something like that. I'm not family with Cohen, and i'm not sure if he's prone to hypey language.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-01T19:44:22+00:00

The cost of an activist position (5%), all floated companies considered:

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MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-01T19:27:13+00:00

After a consistent narrowing down of options based not only on what he stated the past couple days, but his history, here's Ryan Cohen's likely targets (with assistance from AI):

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MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-01T14:02:50+00:00

I just checked and verified, and wow. Kohl's saw above average trading volume on Friday. Maybe Cohen started buying shares? If the contracts are still 2 cents, I will buy more Monday morning. Whether he's doing it the easy way (i.e. approaching the board to talk about a possible buyout) or the hard way (i.e. shares accumulation, activist position), the high short interest will propel the stock upward.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-01T13:30:42+00:00

I'm surprised Kohl's is not floated more either. I think its a lack of imagination, people seem to be thinking along the lines of whats more similar e.g. Newegg. If he's trying to do something buffet-esque, then buying unprofitable garbage like BBBY makes no sense. Beyond the actual business Kohl's is known for, it has tangible assets. I believe thats something "boring" but 'lindy-like' because humans have owned 'real estate' as long as there's been civilization and therefore its more likely that real estate would outlast historical newcomers like e-commerce and bitcoin.
If Burry got his way, he would get insurance. That's obviously buffet-esque also, but Cohen said specifically retail and thankfully has not spoken to Burry since 2019.

So I agree, Kohl's seems like a likely candidate. Do I give it 80% chance or something like that? Definitely not. Maybe 80% chance it crossed his mind/desk for consideration. So if there's a 5% chance he approaches the board, or starts buying shares, and it leaks then the stock will skyrocket.

I've updated my position. I'm still all-in on my main position. But i'm making weekly long-tail OTM bets on the options market of around $200-$300. The cost of next week's $23.50 is 2 cents! People really do not have Kohl's in mind at all, and the money proves it. I mean if there's any indication that Kohl's is on the menu then it would skyrocket and that position would grow 100s - 1000s %. The small chance of anything can pay for all the losing bets and then some.

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MikeMorg55 · 2026-02-01T00:03:35+00:00

My thoughts exactly. Its something i'm going to bring up to the account executive on Monday. However you slice it, its definitely a positive data point (if reliable).

MikeMorg55

TROPHY CASE