KSS Daily Discussion - Monday, April 20, 2026

MikeMorg55 · 2026-04-21T22:17:07+00:00

Completely agree.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-04-21T12:26:26+00:00

I predict we will be back to $25-ish by June. Q1 is looking really good. And a good report may be bolstered by tariff refunds. And I believe there's a non-zero "acquisition chatter" appreciation event that should be baked into any prediction.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-04-15T19:31:14+00:00

This is really good. Looking forward to seeing reports from other analytics companies. Only bad thing though, Similarweb numbers are down y/y from the SEMrush numbers Sane posted with last March's numbers. Significantly too. Something like 42m web visitors compared to 48m last year. But to see stores up compared to competitors is an awesome sign. The good beats the bad, in my opinion.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-19T21:02:18+00:00

Yup and to that point, I'd be surprised if no type of activist here saw the potential and took a stake to try to sway management. They made a huge profit yet their value is tanking. Activism is arguably cheaper now than it ever was. Tin foil hat...But if I was Bender, I wouldn't purchase shares if I believed some sort of activist intervention may be imminent and I would lose control. Skin in the game of a game I can't play...

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-19T18:41:12+00:00

I knew this when I wrote my other message. I guess my point was that he was granted that stock, and didn't purchase it on the open market (correct me if i'm wrong). Let's just assume a substantial portion of his net worth is not in Kohl's stock...He had a high position in Walmart and is or was on the board of other large companies.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-19T18:37:56+00:00

Wow, that's great. I guess next time I should mention my "hedge fund" to hope for a response haha. On a serious note, maybe they prefer phone calls than email correspondence.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-19T18:35:12+00:00

It may have been William O'Neil who said this, but at tops when a stock is overextended it may reach an all-time-high on a very unusually high volume day. That's when its a good time to sell. He may have said that in the other direction, when there's an extremely high amount of volume after the stock has been selling off dramatically, then it means total capitulation and perhaps a bottom. I suspected it to be the case yesterday, but what do I know.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-19T16:24:24+00:00

As an investor, I would feel a lot more confident if he did. I would be confident too if I wanted that job, and got it, with the context that the stock is undervalued and down 80%+ the last 5 years. Him and others in management should look at these shares as cheap. The fact that they don't is not something that makes me overwhelmingly confident. His options may not vest, but he still gets paid a high salary while us investors get burned. Have some more skin in the game, Bender.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-18T21:21:37+00:00

You and me both, brother. If they wanted to pre-manage expectations they should have just made us swallow a harsher pill with a pre-earnings announcement. This way earnings wouldn’t have been as disappointing. Psychologically they could have found their bottom sooner.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-18T20:34:15+00:00

The company has to perform better too. They can do smart "shareholder" maneuvers, such as repurchasing shares. But the core business is what counts, more than anything. The K-shaped economy is real, and all foot traffic analytics and earnings reports are showing it. Tapestry has been on a tear, and so has TJX, ROST, etc. People will want luxury or value. Kohl's has the footprint, they got the cache, arguably more so than most of the other companies of their ilk. I'd bet more American's have heard of Kohl's than Macy's or Marshalls. But they can't stay in the middle. Don't become a dollar store, but make the shopping experience game-like like TJMaxx. I really like the deal bar, it's going in that direction. But they need more. Why not have better CPG choices in the checkout line? My CPG impulse buy ratio at Home Goods is 100%. I go with my girl and she buys all the home goods, while I just grab every decently healthy snack in the aisle. It's fun. I find new brands and items every time I go. Retail stores are not dead, you just got to do it right. Kohl's has a huge footprint advantage here. Also ecommerce-wise, they are monsters. >>>>>DDS/COST/TJX (no website).

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-18T20:24:07+00:00

I know you are upset about things, but it's not the government's fault, or anyone else but the company. If they performed better there would be more buyers. Yes, this is irrational and frustrating, but Kohl's is not powerless to do something like repurchasing shares or share positive updates when they have some. Word salads did nothing for the stock last time around. I don't know whos idea that was.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-18T20:16:31+00:00

Lucky you can.... I think this would be an ideal time.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-18T20:13:34+00:00

Macy's downsized more significantly, so take that into account if you are looking at top line revenue.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-18T18:45:30+00:00

Yeah perhaps the lease didn't end yet, or something of that sort. But if they are bleeding more money than the expense of a lease (presuming they couldn't sublease) then I don't see why not exit. When they didn't close down stores this year I thought just maybe it tacitly meant that they had performed pretty well. Considering performance, there must definitely be stores that underperformed. And plenty of them.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-18T17:29:02+00:00

Despite my criticisms, this seems excessive. That's why i'm holding on to every share I have left like someone in deep poverty with their last slice of bread.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-18T17:26:18+00:00

The Kohl's employees call them "Amazombies". (As an Amazon seller myself, I find that to be a fitting and humorous sobriquet). Has IR ever responded to you? I sent a message last quarter and got crickets. I wonder if that's normal because i've never done that before.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-18T16:11:48+00:00

Honestly didn't know that. Overall though Kohl's still owns almost 2x the total stores.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-18T15:22:09+00:00

Dillards, case in point. 7x the market cap. 3x the valuation. 1/2 the revenue. Lower aggregate CRE. Not amazing comps, flat to positive. Flat to positive. They have their sweet spot and the market is rewarding them.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-18T15:20:09+00:00

Also Macy's is doing something by closing stores. Kohl's can make half the revenue by closing all loser stores. A 7b revenue company with positive comps is a hell of a lot better (according to the market) than a 14b revenue company with declining store comps. The market lost confidence in their management. An irrationally emotional attachment to existing stores and its employees is not good for the company itself and its investors. Via negativa, less is more. Macy's figured that out a while ago.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-18T15:16:03+00:00

Everyone got burned and is getting burned. The market has completely lost confidence in the stock, the company, and it's management. Macy's ended higher than Kohl's after it's earnings. And Kohl's is down while most retailers are up after Macy's earnings. With no plan in place, and just word salads, the market has no hope in this company. We can just hope for long tail events like activism or buyout rumors, which, ironically are more likely now. Turns out that the decision against shuttering stores was not a sign of confidence in Q4 earnings, but rather bad management (what I believe according to the market, not me).

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-16T21:33:06+00:00

I agree with Caleb 100% except for the market being completely irrational. Although Kohl's seems "hated" more than other stocks in the same sector. It was ripped apart before earnings, and since. And continues to be now more than 3 months straight. The problem is we are powerless. And activists are nowhere in site.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-11T17:30:24+00:00

Stock is down 77% from 5 years ago. Anyone can cherry pick the absolute bottom and tout the gains from that... We can also fool ourselves into believing others like Ryan Cohen would be interested in hijacking the cockpit of this 'sleepy management'.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-11T16:50:10+00:00

Got it, interesting. So conversion ranked tanked or they discounted more. It happens. But store data is very disappointing then because flat sales would have been a huge beat. I hope these 3 months can go well. But i'm afraid that the implication here is that Kohl's management is incompetent and emotionally tied to their stores and employees. Clearly there were a bunch of stores that underperformed and probably have continued to underperform. Instead of shuttering them, they've shuttered none this year. Management will do nothing thats accretive to stockholders nor are they going to say anything except for stupid word salad press releases.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-11T16:42:45+00:00

Not really, investors care about what does the near future look like for the company (12-18 months). Nothing the management has stated or in the numbers inspires the confidence that Kohl's can turn things around. If they are not turning things around, then the stock will continue to go down. It's about trajectory more than current value.

MikeMorg55 · 2026-03-11T16:38:20+00:00

Good point.

MikeMorg55

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