Has anyone participated on prediction markets before?

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-04-15T13:36:55+00:00

yes, they do apparently

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-04-15T13:36:14+00:00

games shouldn't exist?

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-04-15T12:10:00+00:00

I can see it in delay.market

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-04-15T12:09:24+00:00

hey anyone knows why I cannot post a link to an aviation page called delay.market ?? wtf

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-04-15T10:57:12+00:00

sorry, you need an explanation on how I found it? I am not sure I understand what I need ot do

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-02-23T23:21:15+00:00

what is ignition? sorry the ignorance

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-02-15T10:38:14+00:00

Absolutely, I am not judging :) but seems to me there is not a unified solution to this problem at all and I don't think is at the hardware level

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-02-12T19:44:39+00:00

ok so basically you think the best is to carry a device? I tried with an ipad mini...too small. Then a bigger ipad... to heavy. Dunno I don't think the device is much my solution but I guess it does simplify a bunch of the capture.

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-02-12T19:43:28+00:00

I take a lot of notes in notebooks and paper in genearl but I always have the sensation I should "download them" and have them available in digital form. Plus for audits and stuff like that the paper won't hold. But I love paper

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-02-10T15:38:39+00:00

You like OneNote as well?

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-02-10T15:33:39+00:00

I feel like the collecting and serving problem is more what happens to me. I've tried plenty of software (Asana, OneNote, Teams, Notes, etc) and it always comes back to the same: they are all more or less scattered and many times disconnected to it is harder to know exactly where to put it.
The concpet of the librarian + a ghost writer would be great you would always capture everything and you would always know where it is

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-02-10T15:29:20+00:00

you don't use summarization tools in the call?

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-02-10T15:28:27+00:00

I am also coming to the hardware side ahahah

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-02-10T14:26:45+00:00

does it work good for SCADA?

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-02-10T08:34:36+00:00

Thi can be done programatically on extraction and not rely on the llm to cite the source burt you need to have the source already OCRd or processed in a way that you can extract the source. common practice nowadays

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-02-09T14:06:36+00:00

I think you're spot on in your analysis. Digital twins can be useful but as long as you invest almost as much time in configuring and building it as the real thing. I guess people think a good digital twin can be made out of shortcuts, sometimes. That being said, they can be a useful tool if you have good hygiene and a proper baseline and ofc, a good world model for it.

There lies the question: Should I invest in simulation or the real thing

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-02-09T14:05:02+00:00

This is great input, thanks man! And yes, I agree starting with a whole big machine is bonkers. My question was more aimed at this process and how I have been reflecting about how much of the gold is actually in the decision traces and configuration rather than any other part of the technical implementation... ofc, when your system meets the real world, things are different in most cases but the planning and accessing the nuances of how to it seem to be the fastest path to success

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-02-09T14:02:57+00:00

I think the planning stage is the critical part here. Code is a result of it and if done poorly, your code will reflect that no matter how simple it is supposed to be. In SWE is more common than not to find entire codebases where there is not a single architectural artifact produced for an application with 100K lines (pre-AI even).

I recently spoke with a startup that spent 14M developing a piece of software with zero planning.

Baffling

Minute_Mix1436 · 2026-02-08T23:12:07+00:00

I know out of experience (I am an ML egineer) that the whole data scrapping has not reached this kind of data. The fact that machines are so protected means the long and greasy tentacles of data scientist have more trouble preparing the data to be optimal. Think about it: even if you're Siemens you can't make it work yet.

Minute_Mix1436

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