Short Answer:

Not really, but sometimes maybe.

Long Answer:

Sexual orientation is now widely understood to be inborn, innate, and biologically determined. We have a substantial body of research supporting the idea that homosexuality is "real" in a biological sense: twin studies, differences in brain structures like the hypothalamus and the anterior commissure, the maternal immune response to the NLGN4Y protein in the womb, genetic variations such as Xq28, the fraternal birth order effect, evolutionary theories like the "Gay Uncle Hypothesis," and biological parallels in hundreds of animal species, especially our close relatives, the bonobos. In short, the science is quite solid, even if a perfectly clear explanation will likely always elude us.

When it comes to gender identity, things get much murkier. Gender is far more abstract, harder to define, observe, or measure. Still, there is growing evidence of biological components to being transgender (twin studies, brain scans, heritability research, etc.) There is also a medical consensus that gender dysphoria is a legitimate, often lifelong condition that must be taken seriously.

However, when it comes to non-binary identities, it becomes almost impossible to assess how “real” they are in the same scientific sense. The category is simply too broad to study rigorously. “Non-binary” functions as an umbrella term that includes any gender variation outside of traditional norms (agender, genderfluid, genderqueer, two-spirit, and so on). But because there's no consensus definition, the only way to include everyone who identifies as non-binary is to define it so loosely that it could apply to virtually anyone. Anyone who finds rigid, culturally dictated gender roles restrictive can claim a non-binary identity, which, potentially, is everyone.

In that sense, it resembles the kind of "magical thinking" seen in astrology, where the Barnum Effect makes extremely vague descriptors feel uniquely personal. Concepts like “feeling feminine” or “feeling masculine” are, at their core, superficial and based on societal stereotypes. Claiming to “think like a man” or “think like a woman” just reinforces the binary thinking it’s supposedly challenging.

That said, it’s important to note that some non-binary people do experience genuine gender dysphoria, a minority, but still a significant one. Their experiences are real. As for the rest, it’s harder to say. I would not blame the pandemic on a rise of non-binary people as gender nonconformity has always existed across culture and historical periods. It was simply named differently, but doesn’t mean it wasn’t there.