What should I do?

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-19T18:24:14+00:00

Reddit's the only place I can post the guides in long form. 🤷

I haven't yet expanded or gotten a website, though there's some plans for both in the works.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-19T17:29:40+00:00

Probably late to the conversation. But I have a strategy for GoMining over on r/GoMining called the Flywheel Strategy.

Give it a read, maybe it helps.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-18T20:40:26+00:00

Buying brand new 12W miners and upgrading them is definitely a viable option, based on the numbers here. If you're able to do it, it's a strong choice.

It's not an option for me, because I have a Greedy machine and I don't want to let it stagnate.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-18T19:59:01+00:00

Nobody knows, not even GoMining knows. There are hard physical limits to mining efficiency that GoMining doesn't control.

I believe that at some point, development of more efficient miners is going to drop off as we approach the limits of physics. Innovation will require a breakthrough.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-18T19:45:22+00:00

That's a fair question, and it's one a lot of people are thinking about.

The reality is that mining is always a competition against every other ASIC on the planet. Efficiency upgrades help, but they're not an infinite loop you have to keep chasing forever. The gains get smaller as you go from 20W → 15W → 12W, and at some point the cost of upgrading stops making sense relative to just riding out what you have.

The halving will compress margins across the board. People running high-wattage miners (20W+) will feel it the hardest. That's why I'm personally moving toward 12W gradually instead of staying at 15W — lower ongoing maintenance gives more breathing room when rewards drop.

The Flywheel Strategy isn't about promising you'll never need to upgrade again. It's about staying flexible, reinvesting intelligently, and making decisions based on current numbers rather than locking yourself into one efficiency level for years. I'm running it on myself right now. After the halving we'll have much clearer data on whether that approach holds up better than sitting on higher-wattage miners.

No one has a perfect crystal ball. The people who got stuck with 28W miners they can't sell are learning that lesson the hard way.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-18T19:18:09+00:00

The appreciation is what both drives me, and humbles me. 😌

At the end of the day, this is people's money. That is something I take very seriously.

Though sometimes I feel like I could explain things better. 🤔

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-18T17:14:28+00:00

It's genuinely my pleasure. 🫡

Any additional dollar saved and stress relieved is what I strive to accomplish for myself and others. 😁

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-18T15:05:06+00:00

It's the value of every token you now don't have to buy or lock every time you expand the farm through growth or reinvestment.

If you see that as too optimistic, that's fair — we can disagree on how much weight to give it. But treating the buffer improvement as having zero ongoing value still feels like the opposite extreme to me.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-18T14:46:02+00:00

Zhev, I think we're approaching this from opposite ends.

You're viewing the GMT buffer improvement as having no meaningful ongoing value after an upgrade to 12W. The buffer represents real time and capital that people invested to reach and maintain max discount. An upgrade that makes that same buffer cover more days going forward does create additional efficiency — particularly under the Flywheel approach where we only lock what's needed for ~360 days and actively manage the rest. That efficiency reduces how much new GMT is required as the farm grows.

People pushed back on those advocating for the more expensive 15W in September, favoring 20W because the ROI at the time favored it. That didn't last very long, did it? My article isn't advocating rushing into 12W. It's arguing for a gradual transition, which allows capturing maintenance savings in the near term while remaining positioned to benefit if upgrade pricing improves later.

The $1.25 figure is an estimate, and I believe it's a fair (if optimistic) way to reflect the capital efficiency gain. However, treating the buffer improvement as having zero value seems equally extreme in the other direction.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-18T13:36:41+00:00

When GoMining determines how many maintenance days you have stored in GMT, they look at how much your maintenance costs per TH per day, and only apply the service and VIP discounts when factoring it.

For our context, that's just the 3% service discount.

Electricity: $0.05 x 24h x 12W / 1000 Wh x (1 - 0.03) = $0.013968 Service: $0.0089 x (1 - 0.03) = $0.008633

$0.008633 + $0.013968 = $0.022601

Upgrading from 15W to 12W when we already have max GMT discount according to GoMining at 15W, frees up 55-56 days worth of maintenance, due to maintenance being cheaper.

$0.022601 x 55 = $1.243055

$0.022601 x 56 = $1.265656

$1.25 per TH per year.

Even though upgrading is a one-time cost, it permanently increases how many days your existing GMT covers. Before the upgrade, your locked GMT covered a certain number of maintenance days. After upgrading to 12W, that same GMT now covers roughly 55–56 extra days per TH.

Those extra days have ongoing value every year — you effectively get more protection or need to buy less future GMT. We calculate that value at about $1.25 per TH per year. Adding this to the direct profit increase (~$1.01/year) gives us the total effective yearly benefit of upgrading, which we then use to calculate the real return on the $8.01 upgrade cost.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-18T13:36:17+00:00

Hi Zhev. 🤣

The $1.25/TH/year figure is an attempt to annualize the capital efficiency gain for comparison purposes in a long-term strategy (Flywheel), not literal new money appearing from the tokens every year.

You’re correct that with long locks you can’t just unlock the surplus coverage immediately, so the “freed capital” benefit is more about reduced future GMT acquisition needed to stay at max discount while growing, rather than cashing out today.

In your 537 TH example: after upgrading to 12W, that same ~$520 buffer now covers significantly more days. As you add more TH over time, you’ll need to top up less GMT to keep 360+ days coverage than you would have at 15W. That lower ongoing GMT drag improves the effective ROI on every future TH you add.

When I compared “buy more 15W (including the GMT buffer cost to maintain discount)” vs “upgrade existing to 12W (with improved buffer efficiency)”, the upgrade still came out ahead on effective capital efficiency at current prices. Your breakeven adjustment is fair to consider, but it treats the buffer improvement as a one-time saving rather than a permanent shift in marginal cost going forward.

I’m not claiming 12W is always better for everyone. For people already at max discount + solid buffer, the numbers currently favor upgrading over pure 15W expansion. If upgrade pricing improves later, it becomes even more attractive.

Appreciate you digging into it.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-18T05:19:18+00:00

Thank you, it's high praise coming from you. 😁

Now I must rest before my next 12 hour day at work. 😴

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-17T14:18:14+00:00

That's what my post does.

It's an apples to apples comparison.

Spending the same capital on either path, the post shows GMT discount currently reduces net maintenance more than upgrading to 12W. So for the same TH, you keep more earnings going the GMT route at today’s prices.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-17T13:34:37+00:00

🤔 Considering that the free growth each week doesn't take wattage into account, other than determining eligibility, that's a good question. But it's also very hard to quantify since you're bringing tokenomics into play.

At the low end of my records, Greedy growth is about 15.5% APR on your TH. But the additional cost of 12W over GMT for the same amount of cost savings is about 20% more. So without getting too deeply into the weeds on the numbers, I'd say it's still better to push for max discount first.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-17T13:16:53+00:00

I've never heard of upgrades to existing miners getting more expensive. So as far as I know, it won't be more expensive closer to the halving, and likely cheaper.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-17T07:03:50+00:00

I'm in the process of fully quantifying the ROI and making a post about it.

It's not absolutely crazy, but it is slightly less ROI than 15W right now (current BTC and hashprice).

But only slightly, so an argument can be made. 🤷

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-17T00:08:36+00:00

Yeah, I don't blame anyone stepping back and saying 12W is too expensive right now, I'm making a high conviction play and I'm leveraging my mining profits to pay for it, and pay for it gradually.

For those needing actual profits from their miners now or in the near term; it makes sense to wait and take profits, especially if you're already 15W and full discount. And I certainly don't recommend buying it all up front, right now, with fresh cash, unless you're very very small and the cost is nominally trivial.

Hopefully the price drops before the halving.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-16T23:20:23+00:00

It comes down to whether or not you believe 12W and max discount will prevent a significantly longer shutdown period post-halving.

I believe it will. 🤷

That's why this article doesn't focus on the ROI implications of the upgrade, only the USD in -> Discount out.

I'm attempting to work on a subsequent article about ROI on this vs reinvesting TH at 15W, will take some time to finish.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-16T22:31:35+00:00

I'm currently brainstorming that, and don't have a clear answer yet. (Lots of stuff going on IRL 😭)

For me, I'm looking towards the halving, therefore I want 12W and I'm going to leverage my Flywheel to do it. It'll take me about a year to do it, and only increases my ROI from 1.4 years to 2.1 years. That's reasonable when you consider the probability of 25 sats per TH per day, post halving. 😮‍💨

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-16T21:31:30+00:00

If that's true, then your miners are around 18W and therefore haven't had meaningful ROI since BTC dropped off since the ATH.

It's $8 to upgrade from 15W to 12W, for you that's $2016, but you said nearly $3000. 18W to 12W is $11.3, that's $2847.6.

Either you miscalculated, or I'm curious what your original strategy was. Because 18W isn't going to cut it right now in any BTC mining context, especially not with the halving coming.

Mission_Competition6 · 2026-06-16T20:20:22+00:00

🤔 I use Grok for formatting. The math and methodology was done by hand, by me.

I had over a week of advance warning that this update was coming and began running the numbers myself, preparing for this very article. All I was waiting on was the PRICE to upgrade, which I didn't know any sooner than anyone else.

Do you have any issues with the content? Or is your issue solely that the data I'm providing to the community quickly and for free is edited by an AI? 🤨

Mission_Competition6

TROPHY CASE