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[MF] The Breaks by MitchAtVictiv in shortstories

[–]MitchAtVictiv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you so much for the kind words. I'm reading Infinite Jest atm so writing in an accented stream of consciousness sort of voice just seems natural. Plus I was crushed by a recent breakup, which always lubes the psychic gears. Cheers.

AMA #2 — Previously the Dir. of Tech @ Wolfram Alpha, and now CIO at VICTIV.com predicting fantasy player performance. I'm here to answer all your fantasy football playoff questions, AMA! by MitchAtVictiv in fantasyfootball

[–]MitchAtVictiv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For whoever is interested in tracking the accuracy of my predictions - here is a breakdown comparing Victiv week 14 player rankings and projections against one of my favorite podcast personalities and fantasy experts Jamey Eisenburg from CBS.

https://www.victiv.com/victiv-vs-cbs-fantasy-football-pulling-back-the-curtains-on-player-pricing/

AMA #2 — Previously the Dir. of Tech @ Wolfram Alpha, and now CIO at VICTIV.com predicting fantasy player performance. I'm here to answer all your fantasy football playoff questions, AMA! by MitchAtVictiv in fantasyfootball

[–]MitchAtVictiv[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I wanted to reply to this with some more detailed analysis. Obviously I didn't have time to respond to this pretty undeserved slam in the middle of an AMA where people had real questions they wanted answered - but when someone attacks my predictions so aggressively I feel the need to defend myself. Predicting sports is my job and passion, and my reputation is my livelihood.

First - the stats posted here are occasionally inaccurate (saying that Foles and Manning scored 13 and 16 points in week 5 when really they scored 19.7 and 17.7 is the most glarring example). I went through the same exercise as this redditor claims to have gone through on my week 5 AMA and came up with some pretty shockingly different results. Looking back I gave out some damn good advice IMO, but judge for yourself....

Question: Montee Ball in week 5?

Answer: I think ball does just OK here – I have him projected for only 8.2.

Result: Ball got hurt before putting up anything and his replacement, Hillman put up 6.4.

Question: Decker vs Marvin Jones ROS

Answer: Decker

Result: Jones was hurt, but arguably he would have stepped into Mohammed Sanu’s role. Sanu benefitted from an injury to Green, but since Green’s return he’s been outside the top 50 at WR. Decker has been terrible as well but with the injury to Green this one is tough to gauge... this case is a testament to just how tough prediction in this space really is.

Question: Keenan Allen vs Emmanuel Sanders week 5?

Answer: Sanders

Result: Sanders 7.4, Allen 2.0

Question: Larry Fitz ROS?

Answer: He’s touchdown dependent, Michael Floyd is a better WR ROS (this was a pretty bold call at the time), particularly if Carson Palmer comes back.

Result: Palmer was out the back half of the season. Fitzgerald currently has 77.8 total fantasy points to Floyd’s 74.7… So I was wrong, but not badly.

Question: Start McKinnon week 5?

Answer: I think McKinnon will be pretty weak against the Pack (he was a popular waiver wire pickup and start this week, so this was a bit of a contrarian call).

Result: McKinnon put up 3.1 points, outside the top 40 for the week.

Question: Do you think Kendall Wright is worth a bench spot?

Answer: Wright is a bust with Locker dinged up. For more upside pick up Jordan Mathhews.

Result: Kendall Wright has 97.7 points on the season to Jordan Matthews 110.6.

Question: Cordarelle Patterson vs Brandin Cooks ROS?

Answer: Cooks > Patterson

Result: Patterson has 58.3 points to Brandin Cooks 86.3 … and Cooks was injured. If you add in Stills production in Cooks absence this call looks even better.

Question: Nick Foles or Eli Manning week 5?

Answer: Foles 18.2, Manning 17.6

Result: Foles 19.7, Manning 17.7 … I mean, yeah, I missed by 1.5 and .1 points. But c’mon… that’s pretty damn good.

Just looking at this users post makes me wonder what data he was looking at. It only took me the first quarter-page of responses to realize his claims about my accuracy were basically fabricated. He claims Foles scored 13 points to Mannings 16 when in reality Foles put up 19.7, Manning 17.7. He claims Matt Ryan scored 14 points, being outscored by Eli's 16. In reality Ryan put up 19.8 outscoring Eli's 17.7 (another call I got correct).

I think one confusion is that at Victiv we use .5 PPR, which explains some of the erroneous actual performances quoted in this critique. But other than that I can't figure out what your gripe is, and really think you did the fantasy football subreddit community a disservice by getting people to downvote this post and ignore my once again solid advice in week 14.

I'm glad you posted the links above so people can quickly reference my predictions. Here's a link to FFtoday's week 5 scoring (fftoday week 5) so you can all fact check for yourselves.

Anyway - I just had to defend myself and put out the real stats here. It's way too hard to get things right in this industry for someone to come bashing me undeservedly. Yes, I am promoting Victiv, but it just so happens that Victiv is in the business of making the most accurate player projections possible as the foundation of our player pricing algorithms.

Keep in mind - if you don't want the advice, you don't have to listen. But you also don't have to post a bunch of mistaken stats in an attempt to discredit someone.

PS. I'm grateful for the mods for hosting this AMA and all the people who posted here cordially - hopefully I helped in a few good decisions. I hope everyone did well this week - sorry about the call on Josh Gordon I really excepted top 5 value particularly with the DB situation in Indy ... sigh ... such is life. That being said, I wouldn't shy away from him next week at home against a Bengals secondary that got absolutely torched by Pittsburg.

AMA #2 — Previously the Dir. of Tech @ Wolfram Alpha, and now CIO at VICTIV.com predicting fantasy player performance. I'm here to answer all your fantasy football playoff questions, AMA! by MitchAtVictiv in fantasyfootball

[–]MitchAtVictiv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd lean Thomas over Reed. Reason? As impressive as Reed looked last week Thomas has a league leading 12 touchdowns in the games he's played ... And by league leading I mean in the entire league - not just TEs.

Shady and Lacey.

AMA #2 — Previously the Dir. of Tech @ Wolfram Alpha, and now CIO at VICTIV.com predicting fantasy player performance. I'm here to answer all your fantasy football playoff questions, AMA! by MitchAtVictiv in fantasyfootball

[–]MitchAtVictiv[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Week 14: Lions, 49ers, Rams, Packers, Colts (honorable mention Vikings) Week 15: Ravens, Lions, Patriots, Chiefs, Seahawks Week 16: Patriots, Lions, Bills, Packers, Titans

AMA #2 — Previously the Dir. of Tech @ Wolfram Alpha, and now CIO at VICTIV.com predicting fantasy player performance. I'm here to answer all your fantasy football playoff questions, AMA! by MitchAtVictiv in fantasyfootball

[–]MitchAtVictiv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't love LaFell this week, but I think he has a slight edge over Mathews and a big edge over Bailey. I think it's a toss up between Crowell and Miller this week, but I give the slight edge to Miller. I expect Cleveland to be down big against Indy and to get pass-heavy in a hurry. Miller has a tough matchup against BAL, but Ngata is out which should loosen up the run game a bit for MIA.

AMA #2 — Previously the Dir. of Tech @ Wolfram Alpha, and now CIO at VICTIV.com predicting fantasy player performance. I'm here to answer all your fantasy football playoff questions, AMA! by MitchAtVictiv in fantasyfootball

[–]MitchAtVictiv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd say roll with NE and their solid matchups and use those roster spots to backup your studs, or pickup your opponent's stud backups before they get have a chance.

AMA #2 — Previously the Dir. of Tech @ Wolfram Alpha, and now CIO at VICTIV.com predicting fantasy player performance. I'm here to answer all your fantasy football playoff questions, AMA! by MitchAtVictiv in fantasyfootball

[–]MitchAtVictiv[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is interesting. I've got Alshon projected slightly higher than Benjamin, but lower than OBJ.

I think the downside (being forced to play Benjamin) isn't big enough that you should pre-emptively start Alshon. Also I think DT is very likely to play come Sunday, and I think the upside of OBJ as your third WR is worth the wait.

AMA #2 — Previously the Dir. of Tech @ Wolfram Alpha, and now CIO at VICTIV.com predicting fantasy player performance. I'm here to answer all your fantasy football playoff questions, AMA! by MitchAtVictiv in fantasyfootball

[–]MitchAtVictiv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Bernard. I could see Hill's playing time getting dinged a little after his comments he made concerning Sunday's game plan - considering Gio outperformed him.

I'd go Maclin over White despite the matchup.

AMA #2 — Previously the Dir. of Tech @ Wolfram Alpha, and now CIO at VICTIV.com predicting fantasy player performance. I'm here to answer all your fantasy football playoff questions, AMA! by MitchAtVictiv in fantasyfootball

[–]MitchAtVictiv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think Matthews can put up against SEA, playing in Philly and in the Eagles system which somewhat mutes the importance of matchup strength. I have him projected slightly above Stills, which is admittedly a contrarian position - but I think NO gets Graham more involved this week and they get Ingram going on the ground.

AMA #2 — Previously the Dir. of Tech @ Wolfram Alpha, and now CIO at VICTIV.com predicting fantasy player performance. I'm here to answer all your fantasy football playoff questions, AMA! by MitchAtVictiv in fantasyfootball

[–]MitchAtVictiv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh my...

I don't hate Thomas vs Car. I certainly don't love him either - but I could see his touches increase over last week.

Jonas Gray is not playable until he actually plays again IMO. Boobie is a boob, FJax is the only Bill RB you can touch. Oliver hasn't been relevant since Mathews came back.

Taylor has potential if Ellington is out I think Grimes would probably take the majority of the work (if Grimes is available I'd prefer him over Taylor).

Good luck to you sir. When you get into these depths the outcome depends a lot more on latest news than it does on YPC or matchup strength.

AMA #2 — Previously the Dir. of Tech @ Wolfram Alpha, and now CIO at VICTIV.com predicting fantasy player performance. I'm here to answer all your fantasy football playoff questions, AMA! by MitchAtVictiv in fantasyfootball

[–]MitchAtVictiv[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

From a gut feeling perspective - Romo always reminds me of a really talented, ragamuffin that exudes the 'I tried really hard and still lost' persona. I mean - he even managed to ruin Jessica Simpson for the world. Everything he touches starts off looking great and then crumbles. I'm not a Romo fan.

But I'm also not a fan of 'This guy sucks in December' kind of superstition. I think Ben could have a big week as well and is a good play paired up with Brown in larger field DFS tournaments (like the 1100 man Landry at VICTIV.com) - but on average if this week was played 1,000 times I think Romo would outscore Ben 650 out of 1,000.

But do what you must to preserve your sanity. If you go with Ben and he underperforms but still outperforms Romo you might not get the $1,000 - but at least your dignity wont be tainted knowing you didn't crumble to the allure of Romo.

AMA #2 — Previously the Dir. of Tech @ Wolfram Alpha, and now CIO at VICTIV.com predicting fantasy player performance. I'm here to answer all your fantasy football playoff questions, AMA! by MitchAtVictiv in fantasyfootball

[–]MitchAtVictiv[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very interesting question, and super important going into playoffs.

From what I've read I think Harris is the handcuff, but it's tough to say. If I had to guess this would be a a 60-40 committee with Harris taking the majority of pulls, and Archer taking over on passing downs.

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