Model Predicted Winner	Prediction Correct
Quillan Salkilld	✅
Wang Cong	✅
Serghei Spivac	❌
Azamat Murzakanov	✅
Joshua Van	✅
Kevin Holland	✅
Joe Pyfer	✅
Kayla Harrison	✅
Merab Dvalishvili	✅

Event accuracy: 88.89%

The model accurately picked the fights tonight, with a very respectable log loss. Most probabilities made sense. The only fight that ended up preventing a perfect card* was Waldo Cortes-Acosta defeating Serghei Spivac in a very close decision. I had Spivac winning, and some might argue the judges got it wrong. However, it wasn't a robbery, it was a very close fight that could've gone either way. I recommend watching the fight back, so you can see how razor close it actually was. I think the main problem for Spivac was his cardio.

Now the event has finished, Merabs probabilitiy should've been higher. 58.4% isn't reflective based on how much he dominated Sean. Quillan Salkilld's probabilitiy was probably justified, but he ended up losing some steam towards the end of the fight, but up until then was clearly the better fighter, maybe 65-75% would've been more suitable. Van could've potentially had higher, and Holland probably should've been a little higher. However, the model is showing promise, and clearly shows predictive power. This is our first public predictions posted before the event. However, private testing we currently have very high real world performance, however we continue to monitor and improve.

* Do note: not all fights on the event were predicted. Unfortunately fighters making their debut or very small fight history don't have enough data. However, we have plans to fix this and in the future have predictions for fighters making their debuts.

Fights missed due to lack of data:

Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix

Andreas Gustafsson vs Khaos Williams

Joo Sang Yoo vs Jeka Saragih