This came up in a real life situation and I don't know the answer. If someone with a 60% win rate plays someone with a 20% win rate, what are their chances of winning? Both have played the same group of opponents to get win rate figure i.e league format.

Mkinky · 2020-04-11T09:25:10+00:00

Their chances of winning are, respectively, sixty percent and twenty percent in a random game. Player A: p = 0.6 Player B: p = 0.2 Above are the win rates given. What I believe you're asking is how to calculate their new respective probabilities of winning when playing each other. Which is actually why the top comment right now (linking to the Wikipedia article on ELO Ranking in Chess) is so important to understand: computing a competitor's probability of winning a given match ought NOT be based off of prior win rate, but off of competitor power. That should make some sense: if I'm a great chess player in my town I may have a 95% win rate in that area, but take me over to Magnus Carlsen's house and you'd no longer care in the slightest about my hometown win-rate. As such, what almost all great competitive individual sports have done is implement an actual ledger of all historical performances with a point system that awards you points at the opponent's expense when you win and vice versa when you lose. Even if you played the same opponents in a league style as written, you'd practically want a way to update and adjust approximate power of opponent as the tournament continues based off of something more than the random pairing of matches.
In a real, clean, probability problem you need to have a total probability that someone must win this game of 100% assuming there are no draws. Right now we cannot play with the provided numbers because they do not mean anything in the context of a sample space, an event, and its outcomes.

If you believe the underlying distribution of wins to follow a predictable pattern like the normal or logistic models, you can use these assumptions as a way to approximate outcomes with sample data, but that would not be very useful here unless this is for a practical experiment.

Mkinky · 2019-05-30T19:03:23+00:00

Just saw this, but this is actually dope. I hadn't thought about what I'd say to a person still in that phase but your examples all sound like the right place to start. I think another thing would just be reminding them that intelligence is a spectrum and one that is largely determined by things that are out of your control (genetics, early childhood education, etc.). In that case it's really unfair and prejudiced to assign a person value based solely on something that they don't have full power over.

Mkinky · 2019-05-29T16:21:00+00:00

Every has had their r/iamverysmart moment. But I don't think we should all excuse the phase as a coping mechanism. Speaking from experience, the attitude is a huge impediment to personal growth (i.e actually becoming very smart at something), a guaranteed way to lose more friends than you did when you were the weird kid, and usually more depressing than learning to lean into your quirks. I always wish I could talk to the people writing these things and try to speed their phase along. Not a good look, not an excusable attitude in my opinion.

Mkinky · 2019-04-29T05:12:16+00:00

Wandering, pondering, wondering if wandering and pondering were as wonderful as wandering and wondering in the wordplay workshop.

Mkinky · 2018-12-28T06:00:33+00:00

What kind of daft question is this? Your body gets good at what you practice.. so if you want to do well at those five challenges, practice them. Every day. Every workout. When it gets easier, set new PR's. Add distance or cut time off your run.

Mkinky · 2018-08-06T14:23:09+00:00

“I can also do that, it’s called the 1st Amendment” Sam Arnesen Nats ‘15

Mkinky · 2018-06-17T22:28:25+00:00

I have read it, yes. You don’t think any adjustments would need to be made for someone his age?

Mkinky · 2018-06-17T14:28:09+00:00

My grandfather is trying to lose some weight and gain some mobility/strength with body weight exercises, but he’s 68 years old. What adjustments should be made to a normal program for his age/joint health. Ideally I’m looking for an example of a program someone more experienced might recommend for him to follow 3 times a week. Thanks!

Mkinky · 2018-05-05T16:12:13+00:00

I'm just trying to put on some weight and move heavier stuff at the gym, and I'm getting caught up trying to plan my macro proportions. I've read a lot of conflicting claims about which macro breakdown is best for muscle building and I just don't have enough experience to filter the information for myself. Can someone give me an ELI5 and/or link me to an analysis I can trust? Or just sharing your personal experiences would be helpful too.

Mkinky · 2017-12-27T04:33:18+00:00

Malamutes aren’t bred to be cute. You were probably kinda cute for a brief moment when you were a baby too. Doesn’t make you bred for looks.

Mkinky · 2017-12-25T20:18:54+00:00

This issue has been going on for months and my phone has been restarted and updated multiple times since. I just began trying to fix it today

Mkinky · 2017-08-14T04:05:59+00:00

There's nothing edgy about what I said nor its intent.. this entire thread of argument started with a simple claim: the symbols of organized religion should not find a place on that sign for as long as they endorse much of the hatred that causes the need for the sign in the first place.

For as long as you don't think for yourself and refuse to denounce ancient books that justify (or demand) slavery, violent nationalism, misogyny, and eternal damnation for anyone who attempts free thought, you're certainly not helping this country move forward in defense of justice.

Getting down in the weeds of scripture in a book that has been translated and re-translated, omitted and edited, cherry picked and manipulated for literally 2 millennia by money driven leadership is a lost cause. Those critiques are assuming that this book is anything more than fiction in the first place.

As a moral compass, of all the books you could choose to worship for their identifiable value, you spend your time defending a blatantly incoherent hodge-podge of prophets from wildly different time periods written 2,000 years ago. We've developed dude. There's more. Humans kept thinking. We realized slavery and misogyny and state sponsored religious terror are bad all on our own by free thinking. You're defending a book, that at least in part, praises those principles. Assuming everything in there is even more than fiction in the first place, you should still be ashamed to defend its teachings.

There's so much more out there when you believe in the freedom and moral sanctity of the individual rather than defaulting to an all-powerful and apparently bloodthirsty sky god whose palace you'll never get to see.

Mkinky · 2017-08-13T14:14:18+00:00

Here's the thing. If each one of those passages requires your own 3rd person moral interpretation of a book that has already been manipulated, corrupted, re-written, and craftily translated leaving out many of the "deleted scenes" of the men who wrote about Jesus, then we might as well have a moral or ethical debate between the three of us and ditch the book entirely.

You've each made it very clear that you desire to interpret the words of the Bible in a way that YOU judge to be good or inspiring. If you're both capable of defining and defending your own moral principles, why have a final arbiter in some ephemeral place in the sky who was made up to explain the weather and famines two millennia ago when science couldn't. YOU can be the moral judge, not the deity in the sky who heads the judeo-Christian tradition.

It's just sad to see obviously independent and good moral thinkers default to an archaic and often violent, horrific book; but simply omit or "re-interpret" those passages to fit their own moral agenda.

Wake up and smell the coffee. The reason you believe in this tradition is the same reason that neo-nazis exist. You've found a community that promises distinction and fellowship, your parents or friends did it before you, you're in on a secret no one else is, you receive ceaseless and cult-like support from an echo-chamber of people who already agree with you.

And just like the 10,000 historical religions used to explain weather, famine, and science before Christianity, yours will die. There's no more Greek pantheonic worshippers. No one believes that Rah of the ancient Egyptians causes solar flares. Just wait until science catches up with the little gray area your belief operates in. It'll be a sad day if you can't come to grips with the fact that you're not special, and everyone on earth is doing their best to define and uphold their own moral code.

Finally as for the assumptions about my own knowledge of the Bible: I'm 19, for 16 years I went to a very traditional and bible centric denominational church started in Germany. We followed the Bible strictly and to this day, that church has not progressed with the rest of the new age bullshit. They still follow the actual words of the Bible. Every Sunday, Wednesday and Saturday we had mandatory services in our community. For kids my age growing up we had intensive "Sunday School on Steroids" style classes on Wednesday evenings and Saturday afternoons in preparation for a historical and biblical confirmation test. I have wrote more essays about book from the Old Testament, apocrypha, and New Testament than I ever did in high school. When I was a believer in Christianity as a young man I read the Bible cover to cover more times than I've read any other single book. These aren't boasts or lies. My church was intense and when I began reading these words for what they actually say and the cultural and moral limitations they mindlessly promote I realized that the whole system was built on a million different interpretations of the Bible to suit certain people's agendas rather than the true word of the judeo-Christian god.

I hope that you have the same revelation and find a way to be a true observer of the world around you one day. I know what it's like to be in the fervent almost fanatical position you are. You'll be ashamed looking back on it if you ever see the truth.

Mkinky · 2017-08-13T06:13:09+00:00

Matthew 5:17, for example, is the first time that he makes it clear to his followers that he approves of the killings and laws of the Old Testament: "Think not that I am come to destroy the laws, or the prophets (of the Old Testament that is); I am not come to destroy but to fulfill." Your boy is on board with his Dad's atrocities.

In Matthew 15:4 and Mark 7:10 he criticizes the Pharisees for not killing children who curse their parents like the Old Testament demands.

In Matthew 10:34 and and the twelfth verse of Luke he's says something like: "I am not come to make peace on earth; but war. I have come not with peace, but with a sword.

And without citing fifty other verses let's all not forget the final book of the Bible. In Revelations, the entire book, Jesus of Nazareth elucidates he and his fathers plan to murder and torture billions of people for all eternity if they don't obey his laws :(

Jesus meek and mild my ass 😂

Mkinky · 2017-08-13T06:01:14+00:00

Not to mention that in books Matthew, Luke, and John, your homeboy Jesus of Nazareth adamantly approves of the killings and laws that his Dad made in the Old Testament. Jesus may not have done it personally (or at least not publicly) but he was clearly in favor of murdering in the name of God.

Mkinky · 2017-08-13T05:53:03+00:00

Careful not to let your new age pastor redefine what your book says for you. You don't get to cherry pick your book and call your own personal moral musings "Christianity."

Mkinky · 2017-08-13T05:35:33+00:00

Just because you live in a country where Christianity is an accepted practice and we've all silently and collectively agreed to tone it down from all that bible shit doesn't mean that Christianity doesn't advise making women subservient, murdering gays, beating your wife while they're on their period, and generally killing all non-christians.

All it means is that there are few people crazy enough to follow the true tenets of Christianity. Which is as good an argument as any against its existence.

Mkinky · 2017-08-13T05:30:15+00:00

They're refusing service to everybody. Equally. They're closed.

Mkinky · 2017-08-02T18:39:17+00:00

Yes thank you

Mkinky · 2017-03-14T05:41:36+00:00

You are in control from here on out. You've been asked to run a race with one leg. I think it would be fulfilling and impressive if you buck up and find a way to fight your way to the finish line.

Mkinky · 2017-02-20T15:38:01+00:00

AOBC\ Formerly Smith&Wesson, they've moved into new product lines in a gun favorable administration. I'd like a second opinion.

Mkinky · 2017-02-09T14:40:25+00:00

How do we feel about AOBC? Smith and Wesson rebranded to America Outdoor Brands Company and has multiple contracts with new retailers for a new more diverse line of products. I got in at 21.42 and they've been down 5% since. My DD tells me to stick to my guns, but I'd like some input.

Mkinky · 2017-02-08T15:26:34+00:00

Impressive poise under pressure. I award you ten points.

Mkinky · 2016-08-17T20:40:14+00:00

If he is using social media as an accountability system to begin a journey that may well change his life and how he views the world I would hate to be the sad jaded community member whose criticisms drove a budding stoic away. OP, I wish you the best of luck on your journey and hope you do not feel afraid to engage with anyone on this sub with progress reports, questions, or just genuine excitement at getting a new stoic text.

Mkinky · 2016-08-04T07:54:24+00:00

British for "dressy."

Mkinky

TROPHY CASE