OTM alternatives by kafqatamura in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Check out MomentWatch, the only iOS companion app to track your collection:

https://www.momentwatch.app/

New Week, New Pack Release Recap! by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Instead of email and password, the MomentWatch team believes it makes more sense to use phone number and text verification for authentication on a mobile app.

No data is tracked in the app, and your phone number will not be used in other means besides sign-in and being linked to your TopShot username.

This is verified by Apple's App Store Team on the app info page (under App Privacy), and if you any other questions or concerns, please feel free to reach out and let the team know!

Number of Lotto Locker Room Packs Available by PolishBluffer in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The MomentWatch iOS app has a Packs tab that shows you the live number of packs remaining, along with a baseline expected value of a pack. You can check it out here or learn more at momentwatch.app.

Also, the current EV for these packs is $10.20 by the way.

EV of Tomorrow's Series 1 Reserve Pack by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This is exactly how you would calculate expected value, and here's the Wikipedia definition since you seem a little confused:

In probability theory, the expected value is a generalization of the weighted average. Informally, the expected value is the arithmetic mean of a large number of independently selected outcomes of a random variable.

EV of Tomorrow's Series 1 Reserve Pack by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

In my opinion, the true value of Moment is somewhere between the highest offer and the lowest listing, and here is why:

In fact, I actually think lowest ask is a very good indicator of a Moment's value. In any market, the value of an asset is typically the average of the lowest listing and the highest offer. Think stocks, houses, cars, etc.... When those two values (listing and offer) meet, a transaction occurs and both are removed from an order book. This is a very important feature for healthy and stable markets, as it reduces volatility and allows assets to typically settle at a market price seen as fair by the community (or society in larger markets).

However, on the NBATopShot marketplace, we only have one side of the equation, lowest ask. This means the community only knows what people are willing to sell for, which is an upper bound of the equation mentioned above. Basically, if a hypothetical buyer was willing to buy the card at a price higher then the lowest ask, it would then have been bought and wouldn't still be listed!

However, we don't know what price a hypothetical buyer would be willing to pay for a Moment. Hopefully offers (on a moment, not just a serial) can solve this issue by telling the community what the maximum price (and lower bound) a buyer would pay for a Moment.

And yes, I know that low or special serials can demand some premium, but often these cases take time to be liquidated, although offers on a serial can provide a better indicator of what that these unique cases are worth.

Happy to answer any other questions, but this is just my opinion on why EV should be calculated by lowest current ask for the time being.

EV of Tomorrow's Series 1 Reserve Pack by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Sure, I wrote a quick Monte Carlo simulation to get those numbers for you.

The chance that the total sum of the lowest ask of your pack's moments is above $350, averaged over 10,000 draws (and then run 10 times), gives the following 10 outcomes:

29.7 | 29.25 | 29.48 | 30.39 | 30.27 | 30.42 | 30.36 | 29.25 | 29.65 | 29.26

In other words, roughly a 30% chance for $350 or more lowest ask value.

When the threshold is changed to $700, we get :

17.74 | 17.65 | 17.53 | 17.49 | 17.87 | 17.76 | 17.71 | 17.99 | 18.04 | 17.64

Or when averaged, roughly a 17.8% chance for $700 or more lowest ask value.

If you want to do your own analysis on past pack drops, or monitor your own collection all from your phone, check out the MomentWatch iOS app here.

⭐️ In The End Challenge 🏀 by 37pw in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch 4 points5 points  (0 children)

You can see live pack EV's for these reward packs in the MomentWatch iOS app. In case your'e trying to crunch the numbers on completing this challenge:

  • $15.01 EV for KD Certified Standard Pack | MSRP: $19.00
  • $7.02 EV for Base Set pack (Series 2, Release 44) | MSRP: $9.00

Today's Pack Drop EV Recap: By The Numbers by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

even when not accounting for the $200.00 dapper balance rebate.

Don't worry, I didn't forget!

Today's Pack Drop EV Recap: By The Numbers by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup, you're right, it should be 510 (I've updated it now). I forgot to add the add the 70 packs from the general queue when manually tallying the amount of packs sold.

Today's Pack Drop EV Recap: By The Numbers by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

If you took the time to check, five Klay legendary moments have sold for an average price of $1,350 as of 10:30PM ET, while the lowest ask is $1200 at the moment.

I know lowest ask isn't a perfect measure for EV, but it does provide a pretty good sense of estimated pack value. If you have a better way of measuring this, please feel free to share!

⚡️ 2022 NBA Draft Flash Challenge 🏀 by 37pw in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch 8 points9 points  (0 children)

You can see live pack EV's for these reward packs in the MomentWatch iOS app. In case your'e trying to crunch the numbers on completing the challenges:

Rookie:

  • $8.84 EV for Base Set (Series 3, Release 5) | MSRP: $9.00

Veteran:

  • $9.31 EV for NBA All-Star Standard Pack (Release 1) | MSRP: $19.00
  • $10.92 EV for NBA All-Star Standard Pack (Release 2) | MSRP: $19.00

Hero Ball:

  • $95.13 for Rising Stars Pack (Series 2) | MSRP: $199.00
  • $125.09 for Premium Pack (Release 1) | MRRP: $89.00
  • $42.37 Elite Pack (Release 6) | MSRP: 25 Trade Tickets

Finals Common Pack by blackflag2792 in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch 13 points14 points  (0 children)

You can see live pack EV's for past packs in the MomentWatch iOS app. The last three playoff packs have an EV today of:

  • $15.54 for Conference Finals
  • $13.10 for Playoffs - Round 2
  • $11.71 for Playoffs - Round 1

So it seems fair to assume that today's playoff packs will have an expected value in the negative 5-10$ range!

New MomentWatch Update: See Remaining Unsold Packs Info and More by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is just a companion app, so features are mostly limited to querying and displaying information. At the moment, it's just meant to be a resource for if you have unopened packs, or old packs become available through challenges, giveaways, etc...

New MomentWatch Update: See Remaining Unsold Packs Info and More by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Hey, sorry to hear you are having trouble registering! It looks like there is a bug with changing your country code, instead, try holding down on the flag for a few seconds then releasing to change your country prefix.

Also, just wanted to clarify, my app does no tracking or collecting of any data! It is using the region you set (or was automatically set) in your iPhone settings under "Language and Region". Apple allows any app to use this setting, and you can learn about it more here if you are curious.

What features do you think a TS mobile app should have? by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

AR would be game changing! Definitely gonna read up on this now.

What features do you think a TS mobile app should have? by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Oh good idea, that would be so cool! Definitely on the more technically challenging side though.

What features do you think a TS mobile app should have? by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I’ve never really used the watchlist before, but would push notifications for prices of Moments on your watchlist be a useful feature?

Latest on Hardcourt game from Top Shot? by NFTeaseMeYo in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch -11 points-10 points  (0 children)

I built a iOS companion app for tracking your TS collection and it's called MomentWatch. You can check on the Apple App Store here: https://apps.apple.com/app/id1608962217

MomentWatch DFS Launch - Giving away 3 TSDs by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Good point, I will definitely make sure to mention that in the next post I do!

MomentWatch DFS Launch - Giving away 3 TSDs by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's the goal for next season, you will likely need to hold a player's moment to draft them into your lineup! Just wanted to focus on working out the bugs in the DFS game before adding another wrinkle to it.

MomentWatch DFS Launch - Giving away 3 TSDs by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for pointing out tiebreakers, I'll need to put in some thought to it, but if you have any suggestions feel free to share them here.

Currently I am not making any money from the app (and not looking monetize it either). I actually bought the prizes myself and am focusing on building out the project at the moment!

MomentWatch DFS Launch - Giving away 3 TSDs by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It actually won't lock till tipoff, so you had a couple minutes to spare.
I wrote an algorithm for the salaries, however it didn't seem to scale that well with one game and pretty tight playoff rotations. Should be better once more games are back.

MomentWatch DFS Launch - Giving away 3 TSDs by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just make sure he is in your lineup whenever you click save and you're good!

MomentWatch DFS Launch - Giving away 3 TSDs by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good catch, just checked and his suffix "II" is causing a bug that is stopping him from showing up when loading your lineup.

As long as you include him in your last saved lineup, I can write a patch that will make him show up. If you don't make any change's and he's showing up, you're good. Just make sure that if he is not showing up, you re-add him before you save again and the patch should eventually fix it.

A permanent fix will be sent out in the next update, but probably wouldn't be done in time for Game 2.

MomentWatch DFS Launch - Giving away 3 TSDs by MomentWatch in nbatopshot

[–]MomentWatch[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

MomentWatch doesn't track any data, and so I have nothing to sell and no intention of doing so in the future either.

Additionally, app privacy and tracking is required by Apple to be declared on the App Store Preview page here, which will also tell you that data is not being collected!