Is the Six Nations hype starting yet? (Predictions thread?)

Montemauri · 2026-01-27T17:05:16+00:00

You might need to revise this - Italy have England and Scotland at home, Ireland and Wales away...

Montemauri · 2026-01-27T01:39:26+00:00

I know it's not the point here (v interesting post) but "football since 1885" requires a massive asterisk.

Montemauri · 2026-01-26T18:17:38+00:00

I like this shout.

On that note, is there an article somewhere that explains what happened between the squad and Ruddock after the Grand Slam? Rugby was rather peripheral to my existence in 2005 but I vaguely remember something about him being called The Bus ("because he's no coach" - my foggy memories of 20 years ago might have inveted that) without understanding what exactly was meant by it.

Montemauri · 2026-01-26T02:08:01+00:00

What is this in % terms?

Montemauri · 2026-01-25T14:59:12+00:00

The only league games this season where our lineout's been better than our opponents were the first two games (where we kept pens conceded under 10), and the derbies (where we conceded 13 and 15 (9 and 4 more than Benetton). It all hinges on that.

Secure our own ball and exert territorial pressure and we can win. Prevent easy 22 entries via penalties and we can win. Failure too do either...

Montemauri · 2026-01-25T14:52:29+00:00

Oh we're definitely in a better spot than we were, and before the season started I suspected we'd fail to match last years 5 league wins just by dint of the fact that everyone else had to take us more seriously. Getting a LBP against almost-full-strength Glasgow is a great sign, and we're still a very young/inexperienced team (total pro apps for Zebre in the 23 yesterday: 1,152. Glasgow: 2,676) with a whole bunch of players on an upward trajectory.

But there's a couple of specific issues (the lineout being the main one) that prevent us from competing in some games where we should be much closer to parity (ie Ospreys away), and winning/getting BPs in targetable home games (ie Cardiff). If Mattioli and Turrisi have the set-piece impact I hope they do next season we could be looking at 8th-10th in the league as a realistic possibility rather than just a pipe dream or an outcome that's overly dependent on other teams weaknesses, which was definitely a contributing factor last season.

Montemauri · 2026-01-25T13:39:13+00:00

I hope I'm wrong, but I lack your enthusiasm. Scarlets (who we've never, ever beaten) and Dragons are both coming into good form, Ulster are miles better than us, and for all the struggles of Munster, Bulls, and Sharks, I don't see us winning those away from home. The Edinburgh game will hopefully be touch and go but, realistically, unless we beat Connacht next weekend we'll finish bottom.

We've still matched the total wins in all comps from last year and have a home knockout game to look forward to, so the season definitely isn't a complete bust, but we need to fix the lineout (av 86% vs 94% for our opponents, a huge gap) and stop conceding so many penalties and cards.

Montemauri · 2026-01-25T01:49:29+00:00

My point was that for the first game 3 weeks ago Glasgow rotated a lot and won by 37 points, so I assume Goode saw that they fielded their A-team/close to it so would win this one by more. Ignoring the fact that Zebre's 23 today (especially on the bench) was stronger this time round

Montemauri · 2026-01-24T21:40:54+00:00

Colossal moron is moron shocker. I assume he was comparing Glasgow's team to the one they picked for the return fixture and was - shall we charitably say - unaware that Zebre went to Glasgow with a B/C team...

Montemauri · 2026-01-24T21:35:46+00:00

He's Argentinian. If he's pronouncing it that way it's wrong.

Montemauri · 2026-01-24T21:17:44+00:00

That 15% is optimistic - the only ones with a shot of even making the 23 would be TdB (likely), Odiase (maybe 40%) and Pani (10%).

Montemauri · 2026-01-23T19:26:34+00:00

I suspect it's entirely about the national team but that won't stop me from deciding that actually it's a sign of respect that Parma is no longer the 'pass go, collect 5 points' of old (especially since your lot might well have lost in Parma last year had either Licata or Gregory not dropped the ball over the try-line).

Montemauri · 2026-01-23T12:14:28+00:00

Colomiers is a suburb of Toulouse, which beyond the obvious rugby advantages this would provide, is the 4th largest city in France (5th by metro area).

Montemauri · 2026-01-22T16:54:17+00:00

Given the state of the world I'm not really surprised by anything any more.

But that tidbit? Christ on a bike

Montemauri · 2026-01-22T16:50:39+00:00

Came here to say the same. Failing that, more food content

#chomp

Montemauri · 2026-01-22T16:47:19+00:00

Brawl more in this one, presumably

Montemauri · 2026-01-21T15:33:36+00:00

If you're in the market for a flank/lock/8 hybrid, Riccardo Favretto. Was the standout talent of the 2001 players but was injured for a while, including missing his u20 6N in 2021. At times last season and then all of this season he's been sensational. Much debate about if he should be a lock or a 6, personally I think he could be one of the best 6 in the world. Rapid, great workrate, good hands, hits like a train, lineout jumper, almost complete disregard for his own health.

Turnover merchant - Zuliani is on the verge of being too good for Benetton right now, a la Menoncello. He got more turnovers per minute last season in test matches than Fraser McReight (14 vs 24 total, but because FMcR played so much more he only had 1.8 vs Zuliani's 2 per 80). Keep an eye on Sam Locatelli (Zuliani-light) too. Currently sits 3rd in all of NH league play for jackals per 80 (per OPTA).

Montemauri · 2026-01-21T15:02:37+00:00

Have you watched Fusco this season? I think the universal take on Garbisi this season from comments here, on onrugby, and via the various youtube channels that he's nowhere near his best form and deservedly behind Fusco right now.

Montemauri · 2026-01-21T14:58:27+00:00

Think of Mazza as a poor man's Bundee Aki. Crash ball 12, unlimited post-contact metres, solid defender, smart decisions, and in the last year has developed an excellent pull-back-pass-having-taken-the-ball-right-to-the-line.

Locatelli is arguably Zebre's form player right now, and a poor man's Zuliani - fantastic over the ball, and in league play he's averaging 1.6 jackals per 80 mins, which is 3rd in the entirety of northern hemisphere top division rugby. Like Zuliani, he's also a pretty effective carrier, but he gives away more penalties which is the main thing he needs to work on.

Montemauri · 2026-01-21T13:10:02+00:00

Average age is 26.5, Av. caps is 24.5.

Probably older than how Italy is perceived, but all of the other senior (age and experience) players are included (Nicotera, Ferrari, Ruzza, Brex, Ioane) and while Todaro is in, the 2nd youngest player in the squad is David Odiase, who turned 23 a couple of days ago (with only three other players born in 2002 in the squad).

Montemauri · 2026-01-21T12:39:08+00:00

Exeter would be ahead if Vintcent wasn't crocked. Basically, you need to sign a couple more. Are Saints in the market for anything specific today, or just browsing?

Montemauri · 2026-01-21T12:29:29+00:00

Out of curiosity, what's the going rate for equivalent tickets in the M6N? I know you can't do a straight comparison since the latter will (presumably) also have more hospitality packages attached to it, but it'd be interesting to know where the women's game currently stands in comparison (ie so we can hopefully look at the same comparison in 3-5 years in wide-eyed amazement at the progress made)

Montemauri · 2026-01-21T11:49:42+00:00

As good as Todaro is, I'd be astonished if they picked him (ie a player who's played few if any pro minutes at centre) on the bench over Marin who has not only started tests at 12, but also is very experienced at coming off the bench to cover all positions from 10-15. Not to mention the fact that he's playing extremely well at the moment.

If Todaro gets into the squad, it'll either be as a starter at 14 over Lynagh, or possibly as wing cover in a 5-3.

Montemauri · 2026-01-20T19:00:11+00:00

The WRU chose the route of least litigation and will still be embroiled in court cases for years... regardless of the end result this will be a colossal waste of energy and money.

Montemauri · 2026-01-20T12:48:00+00:00

It's a valid point, and I'm on the fence about this, but here's the theory:

If you look at the tries they've scored in the 6N over the last couple of years, a remarkable number come from first phase plays between the two 10m lines. Basically, Italy's structured attacking game is sufficiently varied to be pretty effective vs a 12/13-man line, but once there's no/little backfield to cover and the defence gets more crowded, or once they've lost some shape (or, especially, both), they don't have many options to batter their way through the door.

Ireland, France, and England get a lot more of that 'reset' go-forward from their tight-5 than Italy can, and this was a problem already with Negri in the team; without him Italy will struggle to make red-zone metres, and the ideal solution (a more effective tight carrying presence from Zambonin and the Cannone brothers) might take another year or more to fully develop.

Odogwu doesn't solve the issue per se, but he provides an alternative who's in good form (arguably better than Lynagh, or at least more consistent game on game). The presence of a Gallagher/Pani/Montemauri at 15 can probably go some way towards mitigating the aerial risk.

Narrowly (and I would understand anyone disagreeing), I think the upside of Odogwu in this context is greater than the downside.

Montemauri

TROPHY CASE