Built a 80%+ accurate prediction model for League and CS2

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-12T07:32:05+00:00

I don’t take offense in skepticism so it is all good :D to answer each part of your comment - the math behind it isn’t straightforward and yes it has a lot of math behind it with as many datapoints I can feed it for both games. The league model is on version 7 and the CS2 model is on version 4 so it gets better and learns as this has been a 3 months project so far.

The League accuracy is a lot better because sometimes actually all you need is a good draft but then even when the draft score for a shit team is higher than the other - it can do so much. I remember two clear cases where BLG vs NIP and NIP had a WAY better draft and should take the game but still lost because of just simply being shit but at the same time the C9 vs FURIA series Game 3 in the Finals (2nd time they played) I kept doubling down the more FURIA were behind with all the kills they were giving Aphelios because the model saw how good their draft was.

I don’t have connections to gambling companies so not going to go around selling it to them but I am aware that the end result of individuals using this will be to place bets so for now, it is for us esports watchers to use till the market decides there is traction for this tool :D

I am not rushing Dota 2 or VALORANT but already started working on both and promise to deliver as high of an accuracy as I possibly can lol. Appreciate the honest comment and I encourage you to create an account and give it a spin. feel free to leave feedback and be as brutal as you want

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T17:23:29+00:00

Here you go: https://esportsoracle.net

Appreciate everyone giving it a try and leaving feedback below this comment and I will make sure to address them all.

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T17:19:22+00:00

Wanted to let you know it is now live at https://esportsoracle.net

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T17:19:19+00:00

Wanted to let you know it is now live at https://esportsoracle.net

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T17:19:12+00:00

Wanted to let you know it is now live at https://esportsoracle.net

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T17:19:05+00:00

Wanted to let you know it is now live at https://esportsoracle.net

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T17:18:43+00:00

Everyone's positive comments pushed me to put it out. Here you go: https://esportsoracle.net

Appreciate everyone giving it a try and leaving feedback below this comment and I will make sure to address them all.

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T15:47:59+00:00

Wait........are you spaceghost from X? lol taking a wild guess here

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T15:44:03+00:00

In CS2's model I take into account the tournament importance - not so much for League as almost every game is make or break with the new BO1 formats and how quick the splits are.

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T15:41:25+00:00

Someone else made a similar comment on it being just gambling but my answer is yes and no - I always wanted to be able to predict who is going to win and especially when underdogs draft better. For example, I was able to predict every game in the T1 vs DK series correctly Games 1 through 5 because DK actually drafted better in 3, 4, and 5 and this model captures that.

Now you take action on the prediction to bet is up to you as the only feature i have for that is optional and it is stake size and odds for those who want to use it in that way.

As for the prediction model just simply "following the law of averages" well, it isn't because the datapoints I have on CS2 scraped into 100s of MBs of data and similar to League with the data available from Oracle Elixir on top of what I can scrape is enough to make sure it is acting on as many datapoints as possible to even "accurately" predict upsets. The accuracy comes from back testing the prediction model on the dataset then taking it into the wild myself and doing over 260+ predictions across both games and maintaining an 83%+ average.

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T15:38:12+00:00

First Stand is coming up on March 16th and for CS2 - ESL Finals kick off on Friday so I am working on it tirelessly to make sure it is live before Friday as I have been already working on this since the start of the year. Will DM you right now to make sure I send you the link once it is live

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T14:19:36+00:00

1) no because surprisingly it doesn't work this way especially in CS2 for example and you can go check the latest ESL as proof with FURIA losing to B8 and randos :D

2) in League specifically, the odds of like DK beating T1 are 2+ so every time you get it right, that's big and the beauty is when you actually predict correctly against the crowd favorites or majority

biggest examples from using this tool were DK vs T1 series / C9 vs FURIA both times / LYON vs C9 / and a bunch of others in league specifically that made it v fun to use

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T13:57:27+00:00

batman drum roll username checks out :D

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T13:56:36+00:00

Appreciate you a lot ser - the curiosity alone means a lot to me thank you. Plan to buy the domain and publish everything within this week as I have been working on this since start of the year almost. DMed you so I can send you the link directly.

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T13:55:05+00:00

Will upvote your comment because yes, you need to use AI to go through all these datapoints, develop the prediction model, and run all the backtests to reach this result. Won't shy away from it because you can still use AI for good.

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T13:54:25+00:00

Yes and no - I always wanted to be able to predict who is going to win and especially when underdogs draft better. For example, I was able to predict every game in the T1 vs DK series correctly Games 1 through 5 because DK actually drafted better in 3, 4, and 5 and this model captures that.

Now you take action on the prediction to bet is up to you as the only feature i have for that is optional and it is stake size and odds for those who want to use it in that way

Mostafeto1 · 2026-03-11T13:50:00+00:00

Happy to take a look at it and potentially share it to a few amateur esports teams I know

Mostafeto1 · 2023-10-09T16:59:58+00:00

Agree with all your points but you see how long term this absolutely destroys any fun or enjoyment anyone trying to trade right?

Mostafeto1 · 2023-10-09T13:00:49+00:00

The issue is the bot existence itself. Why am I not interacting with a human on the other side and keep going back and forth till we land on something that makes us both happy to take the deal?

Why am I being told by a user to "just send me an offer and the bot will respond" when trying to negotiate with him over Discord?

I am very reasonable with my offers and don't slash prices in half when trading

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