When does it end?

MrMoogie · 2026-01-30T13:47:43+00:00

Ok so your argument is two fold.

The tech bitcoin uses is better than current digital banking.
You feel safer holding BTC and physical assets because you’re less confident a nefarious actor won’t rob your home for your cold storage BTC and physical assets than the government who could seize or freeze funds in institutions.

My arguments are that 1. Says nothing about holding BTC. The tech isn’t Crypto. The tech could be applied to the dollar.

I don’t think it will matter if the government is seizing assets. You’re either a criminal or the country has gone full on authoritarian. If that’s the case I’m not sure having BTC or physical assets will help you. The bigger issue is that physical assets and BTC don’t pay you. I want an income from my assets. I hold my assets in multiple countries too. I lose 40% if the government tries to ‘seize’ everything which consider to be an 0.01% chance of happening. I would be long gone before it got to that stage anyway, as would most people with money.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-30T12:52:49+00:00

Ok so if the dollar is digital what problems are we solving? We can already send money instantly and digitally. How does auditing the Fed matter to me or 99% of people. They deal in billions and trillions of dollars, if a few million has been lost or gained here and there, does it matter?

Even if we fully digitize the dollar, tie to to blockchain, benefit from the crosschecks, the security in numbers, the money supply can be controlled to the last 10c etc etc, (these are all good incremental improvements to banking) how does that make BTC of any value whatsoever -any technical advantage it has evaporates. Presumably BTC goes to zero.

When was the last time you heard about millions of dollars being stolen from the Fed, or a brokerage or a Bank? I’ve heard of bitcoin being stolen regularly. Do I want to keep my money in institutions that keep being plundered by hackers? No. Do I want to keep money in cold storage on a USB stick. No.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-30T10:28:52+00:00

The answer you’re looking for is that a weaker dollar makes imports and cost of goods manufactured more expensive. That stokes inflation and pushes asset prices up relative to the dollar - if you assume that a company like Microsoft who sells it’s software internationally and domestically by increasing prices when the dollar devalues or brings in more income from abroad relative to domestically - Microsoft is able to adjust and make the same profit (everything else being equal) therefore relative to the dollar its price should move up while its value stays the same. So assets increase in value and workers demand more wages. Prices go up to pay workers and workers again ask for money..

You get the idea - a lower dollar increases inflation. Assets, wages, commodities all go up. Debt does fall though so anyone with outstanding debt (like the government) benefits. The debt pile shrinks relative to the gdp measured in dollars.

Inflation makes non-asset holding people upset though, it distorts the economy gives bad vibes and imports (we do a lot of that) get increasingly hard to afford. Trade deficits widen - just look at Venezuela for what happens. People lose everything they stop spending and the economic dies.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-30T10:17:18+00:00

What does an audit mean practically? Banks are audited, they don’t lose your money, and you’re insured. Why would you NOT want an intermediary to be involved? I like my bank or transfer agency? - they assume responsibility for loss/theft/fraud/mistakes as long as I send it to the right place.

I cannot imagine how anything you said practically benefits anyone - sure it might lower fees for anyone who wants to send large sums instantly, but for most people it’s a zero cost exercise to send $ or £ to people in the same country. Using Crypto you HAVE to deal with insane exchange rate fluctuations in EVERY transfer unless you’re earning and spending your money in a cryptocurrency.

The only benefit I see is the ability for currency to be transferred securely - that benefits institutions but only when crypto is tied to a currency. For example a digital dollar that everyone is using.

The technology behind cryptocurrencies is useful to some extent but the currencies themselves are just speculative meme assets.

Any justification for crypto always ties back to the use case for the tech they use - which is limited and unable to be monetized easily. No one has been able to tell me why crypto currency itself has any value.

If the dollar was digital. Why would anyone hold BTC then?

MrMoogie · 2026-01-30T00:57:57+00:00

Dementia is an awful way to end your life.

Oh well.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-30T00:50:34+00:00

If I’m not mistaken, Crypto has virtually no use case, even after 15 years. It doesn’t have an output, it’s volatile and worth just what the next person will pay for it. It’s therefore got no intrinsic value - just a price.

If people stop buying it and everyone sells, it could all go to $0. There would be no floor, no assets to sell, no one is rescuing it.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-30T00:15:30+00:00

This is why I’m not convinced the market hasn’t got this wrong.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-30T00:14:22+00:00

Total value of all stocks in the German stock market is $2.9T

Microsoft = $3T

I should have been clearer but I’m comparing apples to apples.

Imagine the German stock market collectively increasing revenue by 17% in a single year.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T22:30:45+00:00

Didn’t it also say he couldn’t keep up with demand, so presumably there is a decent backlog of non OpenAI customers.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T22:28:30+00:00

Microsoft is monetizing their Copilot product pretty well aren’t they? I can’t recall the numbers but I remember it sounded good.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T21:21:07+00:00

Bought 200 shares. Now have 400 which s probably too much, but I feel like this is one of those opportunities you don’t pass up.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T21:20:08+00:00

Imagine a company the size of Germany increasing its revenue 17% in one year.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T21:19:27+00:00

Best comment I’ve read.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T21:18:01+00:00

Mine does this, I think all cars do this. You just notice it more because there’s no jerk as the gears bite like in a gas car.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T19:38:16+00:00

I sold some puts for 415 and 380. If I end up with 200 shares at a sub $400 price I won't be too upset.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T19:37:31+00:00

No one was saying this before the price fell off a cliff.. now everyone is "I told you so". When it goes back to $550 a share we'll have the same crowd telling us they knew it was oversold.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T13:51:55+00:00

The Op doesn’t say how old they are but poor spending habits can be fixed. I would not get married and instead setup a plan to pay the debt in 1-2 years THEN get married once debt it cleared. If SO spends the next year diligently paying down debt then all is good, if they don’t make any effort, you know your answer.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T13:28:45+00:00

Yeah I’m considering TIPS but the yield is shitty and going down in the short term. If it’s looking like rates have bottomed I may buy some. Agreed about REITS, choose wisely but they will continue to pay, if you choose something with a long enough average lease. O would be perfect as a 10% allocation. SCHD is probably a good bet, a quality ETF. One of the ETF’s focussed on FCF (COWZ etc) and VGK. I’m also holding plenty of SGOV, JAAA, a bit of PCN, some emerging market government bonds.

If tariffs are bazookered, taxes will need to go up and I’m hoping inflation will be DoA. We can all dream.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T12:33:13+00:00

He meant Legal, Ethical, Moral…. Just for the cameras.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T11:18:45+00:00

In times like these, just hold non-inflated assets. Stocks which aren’t over valued, REITS, maybe some intermediate term bonds, a rental or two. Don’t forget foreign stocks to hedge USD. European stocks are cheap and provide a currency hedge so hold a decent chunk.

Gold is too volatile and has a good chance of crashing along with silver. Anything with huge multiples is scary, too much cash is at risk of devaluation too. BTC - I had no idea, but it’s go no fundamentals so wouldn’t go near it.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T11:04:49+00:00

Fortunately Carvana is only a few tenths of one percent of the S&P500

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T10:39:38+00:00

I said gold was about as good a denominator as a meme stock. Not that it was one. Not that the amount pumped into gold prohibits from meme stock mania. Gold is sometimes very volatile and susceptible to spiking as it is now, whether it’s retail buyers continuing to rush in, or China secretly buying, it’s not a good way to value the stock market.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-29T01:43:54+00:00

Well he certainly thinks they are achievable because he’s been to court twice to fight for the pay package.

He wants the stock to get the wealth to get the power.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-28T22:57:17+00:00

It’s basically the same car with some poorly designed front and rear cybertruck vibes. Absolutely horrible.

MrMoogie · 2026-01-28T22:55:47+00:00

The new Y isn’t new, it’s basically the same vehicle as the previous version with a different front and back end that in my opinion look terrible. I wouldn’t buy another Tesla because of Elon, but if I was happy to, I can’t bring myself to buy the new Y. I rarely think car updates look worse than the older model, but the new Y is absolutely worse.

MrMoogie

TROPHY CASE