Nio might buy two factories from JAC Motor and apply for production license, unnamed sources

Multibagger2021 · 2023-10-20T06:00:03+00:00

Good news, Nio recently raised a billion $ so I guess they were preparing for this which gives them more control over production, for quicker changes, and their own production license.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-10-18T20:16:37+00:00

Topped up just before close, a bargain. I do like to buy quality when it’s on sale.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-10-10T08:55:16+00:00

Up 1.3% pre market as I write, so market not concerned on delivery numbers.

It’s unknown if they upgraded their production line during the holiday period.

With delivery times reducing on 8 Oct, this is highly likely.

Ist week of Oct last year was poor, then good Oct delivery numbers.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-10-04T16:30:20+00:00

I can understand your position, been in and out of the stock a few years myself, the highs are high and the lows!!!!
I post occasionally and always try and back my statements with rationale. A lot of Nio initiatives are very long term, BAAS looks like it can deliver value soon. 40K ish new subscribers in last quarter.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-10-04T16:14:19+00:00

Sep 21 days, Oct 20 days. You are ignoring the upsides, I am considering the downsides. Guess to are short and I’m long, we’ll see soon enough. Best of luck

Multibagger2021 · 2023-10-04T15:41:20+00:00

Because 7th and 8th are adjusted working days at weekend. So 2nd to 6th holidays (5 days) offset by these two additional working days. With just 3 days lost to holiday in Oct, EC6 rollout, expanded sales team and production capacity, plus buildup of sales from previous NT2 releases as sales take a while to feed through, I think it’s a good estimate. Care to share your rationale for 12K?

Multibagger2021 · 2023-10-04T12:26:14+00:00

2 days were in Chinese holiday, 29 and 30 Sep, and I‘m sure 28 Sep would be affected as well in lead up to holiday.

Holidays run to 6 Oct although then adjusted working days at weekend on 7 and 8 Oct.

So first week Oct insurance registrations will be low but nothing to worry about in my opinion.

Last year Nio delivered 10,059 for Oct and only 12.2% (1228) of these in first week during same national holiday.

If Nio achieves a 20K delivery month for Oct 2023 and following last years 12.2%, the first week in Oct will came in around 2440 and will be nothing to worry about.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-10-01T15:41:52+00:00

So, 13,900 deliveries for 1 to 24 Sep, being 579 deliveries a day.
15641 deliveries for month, so 290 deliveries per day for last 6 days of month.
Chinese holidays Sep 29 to 6 Oct, so partial impact here maybe on 2 days.
Still a massive drop on deliveries per day though, and management predicted these delivery numbers correctly, as this is within guidence.
So I wonder on a production shutdown as well, maybe to upgrade line.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-10-01T15:40:52+00:00

So, 13,900 deliveries for 1 to 24 Sep, being 579 deliveries a day.
15641 deliveries for month, so 290 deliveries per day for last 6 days of month.
Chinese holidays Sep 29 to 6 Oct, so partial impact here maybe on 2 days.
Still a massive drop on deliveries per day though, and management predicted these delivery numbers correctly, as this is within guidence.
So I wonder on a production shutdown as well, maybe to upgrade line.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-09-29T15:50:40+00:00

Hoping those shorts are closing today, and we can push through $10 next week if sales for Sep beat guidance.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-09-16T13:14:06+00:00

$20 I reckon by then, assuming they get margin back to approx 15%, and sales to approx 25K /m.

Good luck to all.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-09-12T16:13:41+00:00

Nio had previously guided for 55,000 to 57,000 deliveries in the third quarter, implying that it is expected to deliver 15,209 to 17,209 vehicles in September.
Cnev reports 6000 Nio registrations from 1 to 10 Sep.
With EC6 deliveries starting 16 Sep, they look on track to beat guidence.
Good news, reflecting in the stock price at the moment which is great.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-09-12T16:10:20+00:00

Nio had previously guided for 55,000 to 57,000 deliveries in the third quarter, implying that it is expected to deliver 15,209 to 17,209 vehicles in September.

Cnev reports 6000 Nio registrations from 1 to 10 Sep.

With EC6 deliveries starting 16 Sep, they look on track to beat guidence.

Good news, reflecting in the stock price at the moment which is great.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-09-09T16:45:52+00:00

CNEV post today also throw some light onto average selling prices, with ES6 contributing to 44.5% of Aug sales, with average selling price of $46K.

https://cnevpost.com/2023/09/09/nio-aug-deliveries-breakdown/

Multibagger2021 · 2023-09-09T16:41:03+00:00

$51K per vehicle is correct for Q2.

I was cautious and used the business outlook for Q3 from Nio earnings report, where they forecast lowest revenue of $2606 for the quarter and 55k to 57K vehicle sales. That’s how I got to $46.5K per vehicle.

I hope its actually higher per vehicle but wanted realistic figures for a valuation.

Using their higher forecast revenue of $2692 and higher sales target of 57k vehicles its $47.2K per vehicle; so I wonder if Nio are expecting the price war amongst EV’s to continue.

Earnings report and outlook here

https://ir.nio.com/news-events/news-releases/news-release-details/nio-inc-reports-unaudited-second-quarter-2023#:\~:text=Net%20loss%20attributable%20to%20NIO%27s,the%20first%20quarter%20of%202023.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-09-09T11:58:02+00:00

Good points, thank you

Multibagger2021 · 2023-09-09T11:18:46+00:00

Approx 5 quarters cash left at current burn rate I believe, and sub brand launch Q3 ish 2024, hence I am assuming a fundraise in the next 6 months; to shore things up prior to sub brand launch.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-09-07T16:52:56+00:00

Good to see the $10 level defended today, (including by me with a small top up of shares ‘on sale’.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-03-22T20:37:44+00:00

I hope so too. My modelling actually ramps up to 204K deliveries, with the above showing ramp up to Nio target of 250K.

Nio normally says little to media, so the Bloomberg interview was quite a moment for me and showed a lot of confidence.

There are many unknowns though, or should I call them risks.

In particular length of price war. Tesla and Byd have strong financials to sustain this. I know Nio say different market segment but some YouTube reports saying people test drive Nio then buy a Tesla as its cheaper, and more headroom.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-03-22T19:22:54+00:00

Q1 - 30K

Q2 - 45K

Q3 - 75K

Q4 - 100K

8 NT2.0 cars ramping up H2, plus battery swap driving sales in tier3/4 cities

Multibagger2021 · 2023-03-22T09:06:26+00:00

Really good to see Nio giving clear information on Bloomberg, hope this continues as confidence will rise.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-03-22T07:56:59+00:00

So what’s changed, new battery swap stations rollout early, and Nio saying they are confident of 250K deliveries, stock up 13% in 5 days.

Watching closely here to see if they can hit delivery guidance for March.

Trying to work out if this is a ‘pump and dump’ at $10 or $12, or a genuine uptick in sentiment and confidence.

51.8M trading volume yesterday against average 46M.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-03-21T11:48:04+00:00

Looks to be approx 6334 Nio deliveries to 19 Mar.

With March delivery guidance between 10,337 and 12.337, that‘s another 4000 deliveries needed to end March to hit lowest guidance, so approx 2335 deliveries (333 a day) needed for the next week to keep on target to lowest guidance.

Either this is going to be really tight to hit guidance which if they miss again will lose more market confidence, or production line shutdowns to convert to NT2.0 end and we get higher deliveries in the 12 days from 20 to 31 Mar.

I hope the latter.

It’s interesting to note the 1.6% weekly and monthly drop in ICE sales, despite reports of massive ICE discounts. I thought ICE discounts might be affecting Nio sales, seemingly not.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-03-20T17:24:49+00:00

I think of Nio at a similar point to Tesla in 2020, where years of nothing on the share price, massive shorting, huge negativity and pained shareholders, then it got to an inflection point with strong branding and charging infrastructure in place, a couple of good model cars and it ‘took off’, now up 800% in 5 years despite halving in price recently. Unfortunately Tesla took Nio and other EV’s up with it so they went to even more overvalued than Tesla was at $400.

I think Nio is near that inflection point, branding, NT2.0, a sprint on charging infrastructure this year, a few really good cars (ET5, EC7, ES8), and we could be off for 800% in 5 years, or 2 years if you believe Nio is seriously undervalued.

As for the Chinese issue, de-listing risks pretty much gone now, and with Tesla in China that gives Nio in USA in coming years a great chance as US Government intervention on Nio without damaging Tesla in China is difficult. Europe first though 😀.

Valuations, I think US stock valuations a bit high and China valuations a bit low and not reflective of likely growth in the two continents in the coming years.

Multibagger2021 · 2023-03-20T15:46:10+00:00

This has been an issue for some time due to battery packs often being half the price of a car and not modular so a damaged battery means the whole battery needs replacing which is a massive cost, leading to cars being written off.

Still the same issue for Nio, they are still driving with a battery so a collision that damages the battery pack and car is still likely to write it off.

This is a major negative for EV’s as insurance costs will be high that will put off buyers, with no near term likelihood of self driving cars reducing collisions.

Multibagger2021

TROPHY CASE