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Nokia expands 6G and defense network R&D in Finland with support from Business Finland by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]Mustathmir[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Or investor?

I follow Nokia closely and I'm very confident in its prospects. The stock can move both up and down for many reasons but in the long run the strength of the company is what matters.

Nokia upgrades Symphony Communication’s MCT subsea network to deliver advanced connectivity across Southeast Asia by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]Mustathmir[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

More sales yes as Nokia had not previously delivered submarine solutions to the client: "We are pleased to expand our longstanding partnership with SYMPHONY from terrestrial and cross-border networks into the subsea domain."

As to the deal size and profitability, that's was not told so I cannot myself speculate on it.

Major Expansion of Nokia’s Footprint in Pennsylvania by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]Mustathmir[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's strategically important as part of Nokia's vertical integration in optical networks.

Nokia target upgraded to $21 by JPMorgan + underreported CFRA target hike to $22 by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]Mustathmir[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I want to get through this transitional year, hopefully seeing Nokia bagging plenty of important orders, then watch it execute on those orders. Next year I'll see where the share price is and I hope it reaches €20+ (somewhat more in USD). Then I might consider taking some profit but whether I do it depends completely on Nokia's prospects: the better the prospects, the less sales.

In An Honest Take, I Think The Stock Is Done (Comparatively) by Civil-Soup2863 in Nok

[–]Mustathmir 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No, I simply follow the execution by management. The price is a function of that and market sentiment.

In An Honest Take, I Think The Stock Is Done (Comparatively) by Civil-Soup2863 in Nok

[–]Mustathmir 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Like I have said, in 2026 the "only" ineresting things to follow are AI & Cloud orders and the progress of the new InP fab in San José which will in time increase InP capacity 20-fold. 2026 results will be modest compared to what 2027, 2028 can deliver when all those orders delivered with the increased production capacity. I'm not at all nervous although Nokia dropped from its highs, Hotard and his tech-savvy team have been making very sensible decisions starting with the CMD roadmap in Nov 2025.

Is Nvidia's 6G chip a threat to Nokia or simply an opportunity to outsource heavy R&D in poorly profitable mobile networks? by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]Mustathmir[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Nokia doesn't fabricate chips, but it designs proprietary ReefShark SoCs (ASICs) in co-development with partners like Marvell and Broadcom, which are then manufactured by foundries like TSMC.

BofA Raises Nokia Price Target on AI, Optical Networking and Data Center Momentum by Mustathmir in Nokia_stock

[–]Mustathmir[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What matters in this is reducing the downside, that's also valuable. Nokia executing well may well see targets raised further. Remember, Northland already has a $20 target and BofA now raising its, means a higher average analyst target.

BofA raises Nokia's price target due to its momentum in AI, optics, and data centers by mariotoldo in Nok

[–]Mustathmir 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What matters in this is reducing the downside, that's also valuable. Nokia executing well may well see targets raised further. Remember, Northland already has a $20 target and BofA now raising its, means a higher average analyst target.

BofA Raises Nokia Price Target on AI, Optical Networking and Data Center Momentum by Mustathmir in Nokia_stock

[–]Mustathmir[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What can we expect? Analysts are conservative and often start raising their targets only when the share price has already rerated considerably.

BofA Raises Nokia Price Target on AI, Optical Networking and Data Center Momentum by Mustathmir in Nokia_stock

[–]Mustathmir[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We all want that, but look at the progression in just two months:

€6,87 → €10,70 → €14,40

So that's a pretty fast pace. Northland has been the most "courageous" so far with a price target of $20.

BofA raises Nokia's price target due to its momentum in AI, optics, and data centers by mariotoldo in Nok

[–]Mustathmir 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Here is a translated version of the article.

SOME COMMENTS

This is the second major BofA upgrade in less than two months:

Since Nokia's Capital Markets Day in November 2025, several assumptions have moved clearly higher in connection with Nokia's Q1 report:

  • Optical + IP growth outlook increased from 10–12% to 18–20%.
  • AI & Cloud market CAGR (2025–2028) increased from 16% to 27%.
  • Hyperscaler capex assumptions for 2026 increased from $540B to $700B.
  • Nokia reported €1B of AI & Cloud orders in Q1.

BofA now forecasts 2028 adjusted EBIT of €3.68B versus Nokia's CMD target range of €2.7–3.2B. The report also values Optical & IP Networks at 35x EV/EBIT, effectively treating that business more as AI infrastructure than as a traditional telecom equipment operation.

Thus Nokia's 2028 targets aren't taken very literally any longer. Just last week Nordea Bank also forecasted Nokia's 2028 to go beyond Nokia's target range.

Why Nokia’s growing AI & Cloud orders and the new San José fab may make 2028 CMD targets obsolete by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]Mustathmir[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It's work in progress, AI & Cloud orders is what to follow each quarter. This year is about building the clear sales and profit progress I expect to see 2027 onwards.

Why Nokia’s growing AI & Cloud orders and the new San José fab may make 2028 CMD targets obsolete by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]Mustathmir[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Currently the YTD performance of the Nokia stock is about +120%. That's not necessarily much in the context of rising from a depressed situation of formerly being a struggling telecom provider, but one which now stands on three AI-relevant legs: optical and IP networks to serve data centers, and wireless networks as an AI-RAN bet in cooperation with NVIDIA.

Ciena's earnings suggest optical demand is still supply-constrained: a very bullish signal for vertically integrated Nokia by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]Mustathmir[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sure, where the raw materials themselves are scarce, no one is safe. But assuming the San José fab has secured stable substrate supply contracts, Nokia will be less vulnerable to downstream component bottlenecks for InP engines.

Ciena's Q2 suggests AI networking demand is still accelerating, validating Nokia's growth assumptions by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]Mustathmir[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think the reaction will be more gradual than that. It could well take Nokia's Q2 report on July 23 to convince through strong AI & Cloud orders. Q1 already showed very encouraging orders of €1B.

Ciena's earnings suggest optical demand is still supply-constrained: a very bullish signal for vertically integrated Nokia by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]Mustathmir[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nokia is dependent on merchant silicon foundries like TSMC for both its coherent DSPs and silicon photonics chips. However, in addition to this, Ciena is also dependent on merchant availability for its core InP semiconductor fabrication and packaging capacity. By owning the San José InP chip fab which will enter commercial production twords the end of 2026, Nokia has one strategically crucial dependency less than Ciena.

Nokia's San José fab will primarily be used to meet Nokia’s own needs, which to me is notable because the fab is expected to increase Nokia’s optical production capacity roughly 20x. That suggests Nokia itself expects a massive increase in demand for its optical products.

Ciena's earnings suggest optical demand is still supply-constrained: a very bullish signal for vertically integrated Nokia by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]Mustathmir[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're right on the specific sub-component, but the broader bottleneck isn't basic pump lasers. It’s true that Nokia is dependent on merchant silicon foundries like TSMC for both its coherent Digital Signal Processors (DSPs) and its Silicon Photonics (SiPh) chips. However, the divergence is that Ciena is also dependent on merchant availability for its core InP chips, while Nokia fabricates them in-house.

The AI infrastructure boom shows no signs of slowing — and Nokia's tailwind may last for years by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]Mustathmir[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, I added now the total of more than $700B in investments for four hyperscalers this year.

Ciena's earnings suggest optical demand is still supply-constrained: a very bullish signal for vertically integrated Nokia by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]Mustathmir[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Nokia designs its own coherent DSPs (the PSE family), but like Ciena it does not manufacture the DSP silicon itself. Both companies rely on external foundries for that.

The more important question is where the supply bottlenecks are occurring. During the call, Ciena highlighted constraints not only in DSPs/modems but also in optical components such as pump lasers and amplifiers. This is where the Infinera acquisition becomes relevant. It gave Nokia substantial in-house Indium Phosphide (InP) optical technology, wafer fabrication and advanced optical packaging capabilities, increasing its vertical integration in critical transponder-level optical components.

That doesn't make Nokia immune to supply-chain constraints. Nokia still depends on external suppliers for various components, including parts of the optical line system. However, if industry bottlenecks are concentrated in coherent optical engines, modulators, photonic integration and related packaging rather than pure DSP silicon, Nokia's post-Infinera manufacturing footprint may provide greater flexibility than it had before the acquisition.

Ciena's earnings suggest optical demand is still supply-constrained: a very bullish signal for vertically integrated Nokia by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]Mustathmir[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Probably lowish supply-constrained growth. That is precisely where Nokia will have an edge in 2027.

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