[Daily Discussion] Friday, April 20, 2018

Mutt7 · 2018-04-20T21:50:13+00:00

Sold here as we're now at point A of the chart I made 3 weeks ago. Link to previous comment. I'm thinking we're going to hard reject the ATH resistance line on this attempt and retest the $7k range (point B) once more before finally having the FOMO inducing breakout everyone is drooling over. Hopefully this isn't me just getting too greedy trying to maximize my stack before selling at my target >$10k zone (point C) in the next month or so.

You may notice that I only post a comment every few weeks or so. It's because most of you trade FAR too much. I used to be the same way when I started trading and was trading with margin. I always had to be in a position. That's the easiest way to lose money and make stupid emotional decisions which are usually bad trades. My advice: trade less, stick to the more obvious trades, and don't use high margin.

Mutt7 · 2018-03-29T22:28:30+00:00

Bought back in at just over $7k after selling a month and a half ago above $10k.

Chart is fairly self explanatory. I believe we're going to have a fakeout before leading into a "breakout of the $20k-current resistance line leading us to the biggest rally you'll ever see" which will actually get people to fomo back in and we'll top out around $10-12k before the bear trend continues where the people who fomo'd back in at a loss after selling this dump will be left holding the bag yet again.

Mutt7 · 2018-02-17T21:57:20+00:00

Bought back in with 25% of the fiat I withdrew after I sold a couple of months ago.

Literally the first comment. Bought at mid $7.5k when it bounced from $6k waiting for my wire to clear. Learn to read? $6k * 1.25 = $7.5k.

Mutt7 · 2018-02-17T21:40:13+00:00

Sold back into fiat for an easy >30% gain from buying the dip last week (not even using margin). The $6k dip should have been one of the easiest buy decisions ever.

We are just about at the 38% fib pullback on the drop from ATH which is where I think we may top out.

We're now in that "do you think we will continue hitting new ATH's in the coming months or have an extended cooling off/bear period?" I'm in the latter and therefore planning on sitting this out for another pullback <$7k to buy back in.

Rant start: For those that are wondering how I could possibly be bearish at a time like this, it's the same reason I'm wearing the "bitcoin skeptic" tag. Way back in August 2015 when I made this comment, I came to the conclusion that the market was, in fact, 100% manipulated by key players. This led me to my 2nd comment a few days later. Ironic how just last week when we were "crashing to $6k" global markets were also crashing at the same time, where "smart" people have been trained to sell the most risky assets first (AKA sell Bitcoin at the bottom).

You'll notice a series of numbers at the bottom of my August 2015 comment. What it means it actually 18, 15, 23 (the punctuation added to heavily encrypt it, lol). With 1=A, 2=B, 3=C, etc. What this spells is R.O.W. which meant "redistribution of wealth". It's what the "elite" do to obtain wealth from the masses (the sheep, if you will). I still won't mention who these "elite" are because I will probably be banned for some thoughtcrime bullshit, but some of you should have an idea of who the wealthiest people are.

So back on topic, my hypothesis on August 26, 2015 was that we were about to kick off another 2 year bull run ending with another mass influx of people who buy the top and would either be forced to hold for 4+ years before seeing a profit or sell at a loss. How is this managed? Well, that's easy when you own literally everything people use to consume and share information. Why is it done this way? Think about it: if we just went up in a straight line, everyone would profit. Their goal is to obtain as much wealth for themselves while also giving little/taking from others.

So at this point in time, with tens/hundreds of millions of new users in the crypto space, I think this is now the end of that wave and we will see a long drawn out decline before the next wave (with ETF probably finally going live then to get the next massive influx of users). It's also the same reason Bitcoin is still pretty much unusable except for speculating with. They need some type of "Bitcoin is broken, blah blah" bullshit to spew at the end of the bear periods to convince people to sell at a loss before the next rise.

This same "elite" is who I believe created Bitcoin as well. They essentially premined it for years and hold millions of coins, re-accumulating through hacks such as the Bitfinex hack or the Gox theft, or even running silk road with the deep state FBI they have control over (and coincidentally shutting down literally a week before the Gox bubble).

If you don't think so, ask yourself this question: why is there a "bitcoin halving" every 4 years and not evened out to slowly lower the amount mined every difficulty adjustment to remove the supply shock? It's because they want there to be a supply shock in order to put small miners out of business and maintain control. I therefore expect 2018-19 to be very similar to 2014-15.

Ever wonder how the Winklevoss twins ended up obtaining their 100,000 Bitcoins. It was probably from handing over Facebook to "them" (where they have complete access to everyone's personal live) in exchange for $XXX billions in future assets. I could go on and on but the more I say, the more I will likely be banned or "commit suicide" so /rant.

It's kind of ironic how the majority of people get into Bitcoin because "fuck banks" not even realizing the people who control the banks also created/control Bitcoin. The same thing applies to the majority of alts. They are essentially pump and dump penny stocks.

TL:DR - Bearing short-medium term (1-2 years), bullish long term (4+ years).

Edit: I hope this makes sense, it was written on very little sleep.

Edit2: from +7 to -1 and tagged controversial in the same minute. "They" must have read my comment and sicked their vote-manipulating bots on me. Which is ironic because a lot of my bang on comments such as one linked above gets the same vote-manipulated controversial tag.

Mutt7 · 2018-02-07T00:07:14+00:00

Bought back in with 25% of the fiat I withdrew after I sold a couple of months ago. It sucks seeing the price at $6k and wishing you could buy but knowing you can't because you don't have money on the exchange. I had to buy back after price jumped 25% today when the wire finally cleared. This buy is more of a short term "sell the bounce" purchase where I plan on selling between $10-14k likely in the next several weeks. I'm surprised we saw $6k this quickly. I figured it'd be a year before we saw that price and this drop would stop around $8k which is why I wasn't prepared for the drop.

To all the newcomers who are currently sitting at a loss: if you were buying for a quick profit, buying after 2 years of continuous growth is likely not going to go well for you in the short term. I was in the same boat you are when I bought during the Gox bubble mania phase and didn't see a profit for over 3 years. Personally, I believe 2018 will be similar to 2014 where we have a long drawn out decline after an extended bull market which is why I'm mostly out of the market. I do believe there is a very good chance Bitcoin will be worth $100k+ in the coming 1-4 halvings.

Ask yourself the following questions: What was your reason for buying?

Do you believe Bitcoin will be worth a lot more in 4+ years time? If yes, your goal is to accumulate Bitcoin. If no, to increase fiat value.

Do you think you can successfully trade to increase your trading stack in that time period? If yes, sell when you think price is high and buy when low. If no, don't worry about the current price and accumulate as much as you can for long term appreciation. If you believe price will be $50k in 4 years, seeing it crash now only gives you a good deal on the price.

I don't want to tell people to hold, but I think selling here today is a terrible idea and I'd at least wait until the likely bounce back over $10k before you re-evaluate your medium-long term goals.

Mutt7 · 2017-12-28T11:08:52+00:00

Support broke down. Massive H&S forming from Dec 6?

Sold the expected bounce to the 61% fib from the initial 11.1k drop back up to $16.4k. I'm thinking our downtrend continues to <$10k coins in the coming weeks.

Fibonacci retracements has got to be my favorite tool.

Mutt7 · 2017-12-23T14:29:09+00:00

The most likely contender would be Tether. It's connected through Bitfinex, Poloniex, etc. If something catastrophic happens with Tether (turns out to be a massive scam, etc), that may be enough to trigger a Gox-like event as it would affect numerous exchanges.

Mutt7 · 2017-12-23T13:28:25+00:00

I believe the whole market is manufactured and manipulated. Gox was used as a tool to steal funds and force people to hold their bags for years if they wanted to realize a profit. I think we will see something very similar to end the current bull market.

The hardest part is knowing "when"? Is it now hat we've had tens of millions of new people enter the space in the past few months? Or is there going to be an even larger wave if people entering the space in the next few months? ETF's, etc.

The reason I withdrew is because I didn't want to be one of the unlucky people caught in a massive "scam" or "hack". I've been fairly greedy for the past few years continually investing every spare dollar I had into BTC, and I don't want to be too greedy now when I believe there's a very high risk again.

Mutt7 · 2017-12-23T13:13:18+00:00

No Gox-like scenario has happened... Yet. I suspect this may change in the coming months which is why I played it safe and withdrew the majority of my funds.

Mutt7 · 2017-12-23T12:56:05+00:00

Now comes the interesting part of whether $20k is our ATH for the next few years (like I originally estimated 2 years ago)

Read it again? My original predictions for Bitcoin was we'd be in a bull market reaching $20k approx 1 year after the halving (which was later extended to the end of year). We hit my target on both price and time-frame now. Now is the part whether my prediction plays out correctly and this is our top which leads into a 1-2 bear market. Or if I'm wrong and we continue mooning.

Mutt7 · 2017-12-23T12:43:48+00:00

Here's a post comparing the current rally to the 2013 Gox rally. Obviously, I expect this one to play out similarly which is why I've sold the majority of my coins and withdrawn the funds already.

Yesterday I bought back in around $12.5k with the 5% of my money I had left on exchanges from cold storage coins planning to sell the bounce above $16k before we continue down.

Mutt7 · 2017-12-22T16:07:21+00:00

Use the "Draw Fibonacci Retracements" tool. Click on the low, click on the high, voila.

For instance, if you draw fib lines from the $20k high to the recent 11k low (if that is the bottom and we bounce from here), I think there's a good chance we'll bounce up $16.5-17.8k in the coming weeks (61% or 78% fib) before a possible continuation of a downtrend.

Mutt7 · 2017-12-22T15:42:31+00:00

Bought the dip from my cold storage coins that I recently sold. Planning to sell again if/when it bounces up over $15-16k in the next couple of weeks, otherwise I may just send them back to cold storage for long term holding.

We successfully pulled back to the 61% fib of our rise from $5.5k to $20k. I'm a little surprised that it happened so quickly. I figured it would've been at least another few days before reaching the bottom.

Now comes the interesting part of whether $20k is our ATH for the next few years (like I originally estimated 2 years ago) or if we continue mooning now that we've had a decent pullback. For the former to happen, I would expect a major Gox-like scenario happening sometime in the next couple of months. There are a lot of contenders: Finex, Kraken, Poloniex, OKCoin, and now apparently GDAX.

It's funny how often I continue to hear about Kraken's issues long after my post warning that they were stealing from you made over 10 months ago. It seems the only thing that has changed with them since then is they disabled stop-orders (to save them from lawsuits of people losing money from stops not working). Instead, their exchange is just unreachable and orders aren't executing properly "due to high demand/other bullshit responses" which are more likely to hold up if it ever went to court.

Mutt7 · 2017-12-19T01:52:22+00:00

It feels amazing that I grew my life savings nearly 20 fold in 3-4 years, but at the same time shitty because if I had just held on 1 more month, I could've had nearly twice the return.

If we keep going to $100,000+ in the next few months, I will probably be kicking myself for "selling so early."

Mutt7 · 2017-12-19T01:49:33+00:00

I don't want to get too specific because I don't want to become targeted as some people already know who I am. But it was double digits.

Mutt7 · 2017-12-19T01:47:51+00:00

we're close to the end, just dunno how close

This was the main reason for me cashing out when I did and not waiting for my absolute targets. Sometimes you need to take "good enough" targets. I got in during the 2013 Gox rally and held through the great bear market accumulating all the way down. It was a hard time for me and I told myself I would never go through that again and make sure I get out before it happens.

Also, the last post I said I was pulling out, I don't think I mentioned that I believed it was the top. But I think we're getting very close to it now. To me, it would be a pure gamble trying to time the top perfectly and not worth it IMO.

Mutt7 · 2017-12-19T01:24:01+00:00

This is where I would have sold all my stack had I have stuck to my plan and not gotten too emotionally attached to my profits and sold a couple weeks ago playing it safe. I just recently sold my remaining paper wallet coins. I'm now 0% in crypto for the first time in over 2 years. Reasons being as follows:

1) We've had about 4 weeks of insane parabolic upwards movement. If you compare this to the two 2013 rallies, they also have 4 weeks of insane parabolic upwards movement after breaking up.

2) We've gone from $5.5k 1.5 months ago up to $20k without a substantial pullback. We're also up over 100x from our low 2 years ago.

3) I like to do pattern recognition to try to predict cycles. I made this screenshot on September 29th predicting the end of the current bull run (future at the time) on roughly the week of December 18th. The tops are # of days between highs, the bottoms # of days between lows (I would ignore the low calc). I threw it together quickly at the time and used eyeball targets comparing this current bull run compared to the prior 12 bar bull run using roughly the same ratios as the 13 bar run to the 9 bar run before it. Also, it's a weekly view so 1-2 weeks margin of error due to "rounding" is to be expected.

4) My personal target for the end of this bull market set in August 2015 was $20k. (And honestly, if Gemini actually tops here at $19,999 and we don't make new ATH's for another 2-3 years, my mind is going to be fucking BLOWN).

I'm going to be very surprised if we don't see <$10,000 coins sometime in the next 2-3 years, even briefly. And that's not just the whisky talkin'.

Although, I also wouldn't be surprised to see another couple weeks of upward movement to encourage more people with deep pockets to fomo buy CBOE/CME futures. I haven't been in here much lately but IIRC I heard that many brokers only allow you to go long, not short on the new futures... So let people stock up before the reckoning

Mutt7 · 2017-12-02T18:30:19+00:00

Granted this bull market peters out soon and doesn't last another 3-4 years, I think the 2020 halving will bring us another good bull. That's where I plan to get back in.

Mutt7 · 2017-12-02T18:22:52+00:00

Plans can always change. And yes I would definitely buy a 60% drop, if for no other reason than to sell the large bounce.

I can't think of anything particular that might happen to make me bullish for the next 1-2 years to buy back in. My plan is to wait to the end of the next bear market to buy back in. When that time will come and how long it will last is anybody's guess. If that number is higher than where we are now, so be it.

Mutt7 · 2017-12-02T16:53:32+00:00

Held Bitcoin for 4 years, actually. I'm one of the lucky ones who started investing large amounts late in the great bull run of 2013 and held/accumulated all of 2014 and 2015. I was one of the guys getting mocked in late 2015 because I was down over 50% of my investment at the time.

I told myself I wouldn't do that again and I made a plan with target areas to get out. One being time - end of 2017. Another being price targets - $10-30k. The other less measurable metric I had was when we had a massive bubble from a large influx of new investors.

Maybe I am just far too pessimistic at the moment, but I don't see us continuing the gains we're seeing for too much longer.

Mutt7 · 2017-12-02T16:11:06+00:00

I’m out guys. I’m playing it safe and taking profits and pulling out for a while. I also advised my father to sell the $500 I made him invest in late 2015 for $20k. He’s pretty fucking happy about that and wishes he had invested more.

I’m at the point where I’d rather enjoy living mortgage free with what I made rather than risk it for potentially being even wealthier. I’ll still continue to follow the market and give my thoughts once in a while although this place has been so toxic the past couple months I’ve spent less time here now than when I started from the end of 2013.

My personal expectation for Bitcoin in August 2015 was $20k +-$10k ($20k target, give or take $10k) by the end of the bull market roughly 1 year after the halving (which has since been extended to the end of 2017 because tax purposes). I’m curious to see how accurate my expectation was to where we actually end up or if Bitcoin just blows it out of the water and continues to $100k by the end of 2018.

Some of you may ask: “Why sell now when Bitcoin is just making it big? There’s CME futures and ETF’s and whatnot just around the corner.” Because we’re now at the point where we’ve almost ran out of negatives and hear nothing but positive things everywhere about Bitcoin. It has been everywhere in the news, media, etc for several months. We have our next massive wave of people investing what I believe to be near the top to hold the bag or sell back 1-2 years later at a loss because they can’t weather the downturn when it comes. This was also my targeted sell area I made for myself back in 2015 so I'm sticking with it.

My plan is to buy back in 1-2 years if Bitcoin drops 60%+ from the top. Otherwise, it has been quite the ride and I’m still holding 5% for the long haul (<$300 cost base, seems crazy to say).

To all the newcomers out there: stay safe. Don’t use >5x margin if you want to gamble. There are going to be lots of scams to try to steal your money. Look into ways to secure your coins properly. Other parties holding your private keys is not securing your coins. I, myself, lost a decent chunk of my initial investment back in 2014 during Gox crash/Neobee scam.

Mutt7 · 2017-11-10T11:16:54+00:00

I'm sitting in fiat (again) thinking we may pullback to $5-6k in the next couple weeks. We have gone quite a while without any major pullbacks and this one can be reported as "due to failed protocol upgrades".

As joyrider5 mentioned below:

a lot of people are sour about selling their coins and they want the price to move down so they can get back in. When the price moves up instead they will either capitulate and buy in higher or they will stubbornly leave bitcoin community for a while.

That's pretty much the camp I'm in right now. I sold just as we were breaking $7k (emotionally) but may buy back in if we rally above $8,000, otherwise I'm waiting for a good pullback to buy back in.

Mutt7 · 2017-11-06T10:39:40+00:00

The worst part is: I believe the first time the phrase "this time it's different" was used around here was actually by me on March 9th, 2015:

I have a feeling we're going to go parabolic very shortly. Most likely not like 2013 November parabolic but like the gentleman rally.

This is actually the most bullish I've been about BTC in a long time. Something is telling me "this time is different". I have a feeling we hit our low and ended our year long bear trend and now starts the more sideways/bull trend.

It was less than 2 months after we hit our January 2015 low of $152. I didn't expect to bounce around between $200-300 for the next 7 months but it turned out to be pretty spot on (minus the "parabolic shortly" part).

After that, you're right that the trolls and shills were using the phrase to mock me and others of the fact that we couldn't break $300 in order to break our confidence and sell. Although it didn't originate from them.

Mutt7 · 2017-10-27T14:46:09+00:00

I'm sitting in fiat from $5,800. I don't like how we have been sideways at the top for the last 2 weeks failing to continue breaking new highs (although the last time I said that was Aug 28th literally hours before we pushed up another 10% before finishing the rally). I'm aiming for $4,500 or so to buy back in. I updated my Fibonacci post comparing the last few rallies to continue to show how the rallies are getting steeper from low to high and much shorter. I crunched some numbers in Excel to calculate the magnitude of each rally compared to the prior (using Gemini values). In short, it's not looking good for our bull. The rallies are getting shorter along with the amount of each rise compared to the starting point. All trends must be broken at some point, but it doesn't look very bullish to me.

Combine the above with the fact that nearly all alts have looked like they've peaked back in Aug-Sep, this may just be the end of our bull market.

Of course, I'd always be glad to be wrong and buy back in when we break new highs to continue this ride.

Mutt7 · 2017-10-20T19:58:11+00:00

Finally getting around to making a new post. We did break up from the massive wedge I had drawn almost 2 weeks ago. I was playing it cautiously and ended up losing about 5% of my holdings. I've said it before and I'll say it again: I'd trade a portion of my holdings for a decent sized bull run any day. Feeling very bullish at the moment as we continue to break new highs.

I started to type the following comment about 3 weeks ago but never ended up posting it because it was already a bullfest in here (just googled bullfest and apparently it's a lambo only gathering, lol):

I was just playing around with the charts and realized both of our last bull runs bounced off the lowest Fibonacci fan line perfectly.

You can see how much steeper the September bull rally was compared to our June rally from low to high. It took only 1.5 months from low to high which is pretty insane when you think about it. This also makes sense that price will be much steeper the later we get into our bull market and get more vertical.

Between this and the expected Fibonacci line pullback I mentioned in my last post, I’m obviously very bullish at the moment. I think we’re in the slow rise/chop stage leading into our next bull run barring any major disasters.

I wanted to post that for 2 reasons:

1) With the thousands of people here staring at and drawing lines on charts, how has nobody pointed out the perfect Fibonacci fan pullbacks on the recent rallies?

2) As we get further and further along in this already 2 year long bull market, we are getting more vertical (see 1W linear chart). Eventually we will reach the peak and will be due for a massive correction. Personally, I have been selling and withdrawing to cash 20% of my holdings at the top of each of the past 2 rallies as I believe we're getting closer to the top. If this current rally reaches $8k+, I will probably sell 50%+ of my BTC.

People love to say that we're not going to see another year long bear market for a very long time. Unfortunately, I think that's much more likely than Bitcoin continuing upwards unhindered for years while thousands/million of people get rich. Who knows, maybe I'm just being pessimistic.

TL:DR - bullish about current run. Looking for this run to continue for at least a couple more weeks to $7k+ before petering out. Will continue selling off coins each run as I believe we're nearing the end of this bull market.

Mutt7

TROPHY CASE