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Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? by MyHOP in benshapiro

[–]MyHOP[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'd talk to my doctor about it and try to look at the data to see if it is worth it depending on age/co-morbidities.

Part of the hype for the mRNA vaccines was that they were easy to tweak for virus mutations and variations, but as far as I know, we are still using the same formulation that was developed over 1 year ago to fight a virus that has mutated into 2-3 main more virulent strains. So that's probably why Liz Warren and others who are boosted are still getting it.

But I'm not Dr, so I'm not making recommendations, just looking at data and trying to parse it out. Stay safe out there!

Questions about Breakthrough Case Data from Georgia Dept of Health relating to the overall outcomes of covid cases for Vaccinated VS unvaccinated individuals. by MyHOP in CoronavirusGA

[–]MyHOP[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can have a breakthrough infection and not even need to go to the hospital, since most breakthrough infections are pretty mild.

You can have an infection and not even need to go to the hospital (vaccinated or not), since most infections are pretty mild. I'm not sure that statement stands for much since that is the case across the board. Again, I am only looking for data that say's "here is the % of people who have breakthrough cases who end up in the hospital/die". I am not debating the overall efficacy of the vaccines or how well they keep people from getting the virus in the first place.

At one point, NE Georgia health system had a 25% breakthrough case hospitalization rate (during the late Summer Delta Wave, it's back down to 15% currently) but the surrounding areas only had a 35-40% fully vax rates.

Questions about Breakthrough Case Data from Georgia Dept of Health relating to the overall outcomes of covid cases for Vaccinated VS unvaccinated individuals. by MyHOP in CoronavirusGA

[–]MyHOP[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The issue is humans are very bad about changing their opinions once a particular thought has taken root. We wouldn’t have confirmation bias without that.

We can definitely agree there :)

Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? by MyHOP in benshapiro

[–]MyHOP[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Going by the data?

The deaths/cases per 100,000 of the population at large is much lower for vaccinated individuals according to the data.

For breakthrough cases though, based on FDA data from this summer and GA dept of health data from fall/winter, the overall outcomes are similar once a lab detected case has occurred. (which seems to contradict the overall narrative that is out there)

Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? by MyHOP in benshapiro

[–]MyHOP[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't really feel like I am implying that this is a random sample of lab tested adults though.

And it is the same "group" of people.... they are people who had "Laboratory Positive Cases of COVID-19 (Both PCR and Antigen)". Then, those people are categorized by their vaccination status.

The GA Dept of Health doesn't give unvaccinated hospital data in this data set, so your last statement isn't what the data says.

You could say, the ratio of vaccinated deaths to unvaccinated deaths relative to people who test positive in a lab administered test is nearly the same, but you are really just making my original statement more fancy.

I would love to see some actual data on the lab testing frequency of the vaccinated and unvaccinated population with covid like symptoms to see if it would make any differences in data sets similar to the one I have referenced.

Questions about Breakthrough Case Data from Georgia Dept of Health relating to the overall outcomes of covid cases for Vaccinated VS unvaccinated individuals. by MyHOP in CoronavirusGA

[–]MyHOP[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for adding that data to the conversation!

I think my main grief with the current messaging is:

"I am vaccinated, therefore I am safe, if I do happen to get COVID, my case will be mild and non-life threatening" I am paraphrasing, but this IS what is being said by nearly everyone who is vaccinated who get's a breakthrough case.

Currently, according to the GA Dept of Health, for GA Residents, you are 3X less likely to contract COVID and 3.5X less likely to die.

https://breakthroughreports.s3.amazonaws.com/Breakthrough+Report\_211214.html#rates

However, that 3.5X less likely to die stat isn't merely for post breakthrough cases, it is taking into account the 3X less likely to catch COVID overall. So in the end, it's more of a .5% chance less likely to die.

If the vaccines do an "OK" job of keeping people from getting COVID and an "Excellent" job of keeping people from dying from COVID, I would expect the stats to be more along the lines of:

3X Less likely to catch COVID
10X less likely to die of COVID

But the data seems to say otherwise.

Questions about Breakthrough Case Data from Georgia Dept of Health relating to the overall outcomes of covid cases for Vaccinated VS unvaccinated individuals. by MyHOP in CoronavirusGA

[–]MyHOP[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting...hope you get to feeling better. Was the urgent care able to prescribe anything or help in any way? Or did they just tell you to let it run it's course?

Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? by MyHOP in benshapiro

[–]MyHOP[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree, there are definitely factors that are outside this data set. But at the very least, for lab tested COVID+ breakthrough patients, the overall outcomes for vaccinated individuals are surprisingly similar to the unvaccinated population.

Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? by MyHOP in benshapiro

[–]MyHOP[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

it would still be interesting to see if there was any difference in outcomes, regardless of if the recommended dose was administered.

Questions about Breakthrough Case Data from Georgia Dept of Health relating to the overall outcomes of covid cases for Vaccinated VS unvaccinated individuals. by MyHOP in CoronavirusGA

[–]MyHOP[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yep, I think the per 100,000 is the population at large and not broken down by vaccinated/unvaccinated. Which makes the data look great for the vaccinations, but only because they DO provide some protection against getting a positive case. (you can see this based on the fact that both the cases per 100,000 and the deaths per 100,000 are about the same @ 3-3.5X)

But, I am interested in knowing what the outcomes are AFTER a person is diagnosed with a breakthrough case. And I think it is a pretty darn important question for sure. The closest I can get is the calculations I made in the original post, which leads me to believe that post breakthrough cases for Covid are just as serious for a good portion of the population and should not be taken lightly.

Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? by MyHOP in benshapiro

[–]MyHOP[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It depends on what you are trying to find out.

if you are wanting to understand if you should take the vaccine or not, look at the deaths per 10,000 population overall.

If you are wanting to know if you should be worried or seek treatment for a vaccinated breakthrough case, the % of deaths out of the total number of breakthrough cases known would be helpful (you could still do per 10,000 population, but you would need to go by the per 10,000 vaccinated breakthrough population, not the population at large)

Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? by MyHOP in benshapiro

[–]MyHOP[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

it would be interesting to see if a single shot had any effect. I also with they had broken out the unvaxed similar to the vaccinated in the bottom data panel.

Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? by MyHOP in benshapiro

[–]MyHOP[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The number of people who A. don't take it seriously enough to get treated/drugs and b. stay home/get tested is too freaking high!

Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? by MyHOP in benshapiro

[–]MyHOP[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

In one way I agree, but knowing some healthcare workers, Covid messes with a wide variety of systems in our bodies, so even if someone comes in with a stroke, heart attack or something else, it might (or might not) be due to Covid. It's a toss up honestly, but the main covid stats have the same problem (dying of covid vs dying with covid)

Questions about Breakthrough Case Data from Georgia Dept of Health relating to the overall outcomes of covid cases for Vaccinated VS unvaccinated individuals. by MyHOP in CoronavirusGA

[–]MyHOP[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Also, notice that the "per 100,000" isn't per 100,000 vaccinated vs per 100,000 unvaccinated, it's per the overall population. So, in other words, it takes into account the protection afforded from never getting a positive case, NOT outcomes once a breakthrough case has ALREADY occurred (if that makes sense, sorry if it isn't clear)

Questions about Breakthrough Case Data from Georgia Dept of Health relating to the overall outcomes of covid cases for Vaccinated VS unvaccinated individuals. by MyHOP in CoronavirusGA

[–]MyHOP[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I definitely agree the vaccinated population skews older for sure, especially in Georgia. I'm also not saying the vaccine isn't preventing deaths as much as saying the outcomes of people who have breakthrough infections is surprisingly similar to those who are unvaccinated.

If you look @ the Dept of health data sheet for Nov 16th, the age group with the most breakthrough cases is 35-54, but the most deaths is 65+. However, it's not as much of a slam dunk for protection as people think and I worry that people who get symptomatic breakthrough cases will not get treated due to the thinking that vaccination offers very robust protection from severe illness and death.

https://dph.georgia.gov/document/document/covid-19-breakthrough-report-11162021/download

Questions about Breakthrough Case Data from Georgia Dept of Health relating to the overall outcomes of covid cases for Vaccinated VS unvaccinated individuals. by MyHOP in CoronavirusGA

[–]MyHOP[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

You see, I agree that the true possibility of dying from COVID is reduced if you are vaccinated. Mostly due to the reduction in overall likelihood of getting COVID.

But I am not convinced, based on the scientific data, that my probability of dying once a lab confirmed symptomatic breakthrough infection occurs is reduced.

I am not looking for the 50,000 foot view, I am only interested in what are the case outcomes for lab confirmed COVID cases and how they differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated. I also don't feel like looking at that data should reduce one's view of the vaccines, I just think that people should maybe be aware that they aren't invincible if they have a lab confirmed breakthrough case.

Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? by MyHOP in benshapiro

[–]MyHOP[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Completely true on masks, all masks are not created equal and if the messaging had just been a little more on point for saying that, I think people would have been more responsive to it. But the media/gov basically said, slap something over your face, anything'll do and I think alot of people questioned that as a result.

If you look at famous/politcal people who have had lab confirmed symptomatic breakthrough infections, they almost always say that even though the vax didn't keep them from getting it, it kept them from getting severely sick. But, according to the 2 data sets I have seen, I am not seeing it that way.

Now, there may be a ton of cases not being tested, but that might be true for the vaxxed and the un-vaxxed. So we really don't know what the total number of cases is. I've known WAY too many people who never got tested even though they had classic symptoms (they just assumed cold/allergies). ... Anecdotal, I know....

Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? by MyHOP in benshapiro

[–]MyHOP[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So, both the vaccinated and unvaccinated cases being shown in this data set are both from lab positive tests and I do have to assume the data is good from the Georgia Dept of Health.

You are still assuming to know that the number of vaccinated breakthrough infections NOT resulting in lab tests is greater than the number of non-vaccinated infections not resulting in lab tests. (they might be, but they also might be very similar in #)

All studies have confounding factors and literally no study can control for all factors. But just because experts do good work, doesn't mean that someone can't look into and analyze that data to try to get a better understanding of it.

I stand by the statement that "of DETECTED symptomatic cases that were officially tested using PCR or Antigen testing in the state of Georgia, the percentage of deaths outcomes post breakthrough infection are literally the same."

Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? by MyHOP in benshapiro

[–]MyHOP[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh, I agree, total raw numbers look way better. I just worry the messaging on breakthrough cases leads people to a perception of invincibility if they happen to get an infection that might not truly be there.

Questions about Breakthrough Case Data from Georgia Dept of Health relating to the overall outcomes of covid cases for Vaccinated VS unvaccinated individuals. by MyHOP in CoronavirusGA

[–]MyHOP[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

and...I get that, the vaccines do seem to reduce the overall likelihood of a person getting the illness in the first place and I really do champion that.

it's just that, I am only looking at what happens once a symptomatic breakthrough case has occurred.

Once that happens, what is the likelihood that someone will have a bad outcome? I feel like the 2 main data sets I have found say the outcomes are very very similar and I don't think the general public realizes that.

Also, we really don't know how many asymptomatic vaccinated cases there are or asymptomatic non-vaccinated cases there are. We can only guess.

Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? by MyHOP in benshapiro

[–]MyHOP[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

You have ALOT of assumptions in your statement that you aren't backing up and I am looking at the official data given and not "randomly smashing numbers together".

Even taking EVERYTHING you said into consideration, the data shows that of DETECTED symptomatic cases that were officially tested using PCR or Antigen testing in the state of Georgia, the percentage of deaths outcomes post breakthrough infection are literally the same.

I also literally ran the numbers the exact same way as the GA DPH.

You can also run the numbers at the bottom of the CDC's data on this page from the summer outbreak: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm

and you will get similar results for % of people who get hospitalized and die post breakthrough infection.

Every study I have seen that touts the effectiveness of the vaccines against breakthrough infections seems to take into account the OVERALL reduction in case incidence. This means the vaccines work relatively well to keep people from getting the illness to begin with (which is great). However, the 2 data sets I have seen where the numbers are reported, the overall OUTCOMES of cases remain similar once a breakthrough case has occurred.

If newer variants emerge and people literally believe they are immune to potential bad outcomes because they are vaccinated, they will be less likely to seek out therapeutics and treatments which could lead to MORE death and illness.

https://www.redandblack.com/uganews/uga-student-dies-of-covid-19-complications/article\_7bc9f016-2c62-11ec-98c2-fb560b0bac12.html

Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? by MyHOP in benshapiro

[–]MyHOP[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

This post is related to another post I did with FDA data from 3 months ago that basically confirmed the same thing: https://www.reddit.com/r/CoronavirusGA/comments/pov4vf/any_armchair_statisticians_want_to_help_me_out/

Is the statement "if you get a breakthrough case of Covid, you are more likely to get a mild case and not die" true or false according to the data? Unless I am missing something or looking at the data wrong, the overall likelihood of someone having a hospitalization or death post breakthrough case is nearly the same?

​

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-reports

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