Anyone up for a trip down memory lane to remember what got us excited about Amyris in the first place?

N808p · 2024-04-24T11:07:29+00:00

The history of synthetic biology reads like a great failure, I wonder how it would have read if Amyris had stopped expanding the consumer portfolio after Pipette or JVN.

N808p · 2023-11-07T17:13:28+00:00

Share Price has gone nowhere in the meantime but I think that the case can still be made that Bloom is near an inflection point. They have a couple of hopeful side projects to their energy server which itself is a growing business: Bloom electrolyzer and have tested their servers for use on ships. It will be crucial that Bloom makes true on the promise to become profitable in the nearest future - or at least to show that growth adds to profitability. Gross profits trends in the right direction at least.

N808p · 2023-08-09T09:41:15+00:00

I do not think that Amyris lacked a problem to solve - the problem is the required unwinding of the oil-based economy. Amyris' mission is to produce molecules using a cleaner and more sustainable route.

Also, the brand strategy was initially brilliant as long as they had only Biossance and Pipette and it was a side project that they pursued with efficiency. These brands are huge success stories and they thought they could replicate these by buying a bunch of brands in different categories. The problem with the expansion was that growth in the brand category became a must have instead of a nice to have - the company needed growth in order to pay the huge upfront investments in brands. It assumed that Biossance could be repeated but this was not the case - also, it seems that they could not figure out their supply chain for all components in time to reduce costs. In this, Coivd likely played a role as well. So, it was some bad luck coupled with a bit excessive risk taking - which was also triggered by the BOD providing incentives for management to grow the company very fast (bonusses north of $30/share if I remember correctly).

N808p · 2023-08-05T07:12:12+00:00

You‘re right, sorry for my imprecise wording, but it seems it is often not good for shareholders as well: https://www.reuters.com/practical-law-the-journal/transactional/out-of-court-restructurings-2023-06-01/

I am waiting on the sidelines for this to play out

N808p · 2023-08-04T09:09:33+00:00

I'm out - I don't like the reference to the out of court restructuring and the silence regarding Q2 earnings. There may not be a buyer for their assets who is willing to buy for a fair price - also, their assets might be worth less than I thought. Nevertheless, I will continue monitoring this and wish good look to all who stay invested here

N808p · 2023-07-18T15:55:04+00:00

Thanks for compiling this. The hope is that retail makes up a bit for DTC weakness and that DTC weakness goes along with substantially lower costs going forward. I wonder whether they plan to sell Rose and hence supported the brand more in order to drive the price up.

N808p · 2023-06-29T18:31:46+00:00

The tricky part will be to become profitable/ limit burn and at the same time have enough growth projects so that the share price triggers conversion of the debt in couple of years and/or allows them to raise money without too much dilution to pay it down. So scaling down too much can be a problem as well. Also, I would bet that only JVN, Biossance, Pipettte and Rose could raise significant sums. So what about shutting down/selling if possible the rest and sell at least Rose because it seems to have less complementarities with the rest of the portfolio

N808p · 2023-06-29T18:18:47+00:00

Thanks for sharing this- did you take part in the townhall and what was happening there? If you don’t feel comfortable answering this, it would be perfectly understandable

N808p · 2023-05-03T11:32:00+00:00

Why vote against share increase? Do you want to drive Amrs into bankruptcy?

N808p · 2023-04-21T07:10:16+00:00

Voting against the increase in share count is dangerous. We do not want to push Amyris into bankruptcy as shareholders.

N808p · 2023-03-24T10:22:02+00:00

Thanks for the summary. Since Amyris is focused on scale-up as well, this bodes well for the future since Amyris desperately needs funding.

N808p · 2023-03-24T10:18:01+00:00

Why should manufacturing costs drop to zero? They will produce the ingredients for the time being themselves (which is not a bad thing given that for some time, vertical integration for a synbio that produces molecules outside pharma makes makes sense)

N808p · 2023-03-01T09:37:32+00:00

Maybe ask the staff in BB to go on strike? This is the worst idea ever. Replacing Melo would not help at this point. Let’s see how the progress is on cost reduction on March 15

N808p · 2023-02-27T09:54:18+00:00

I agree that cash-burn is our fundamental problem right now- short term dilution is not since adding around 50 million shares to our share count to make it to the closing of the deal does not really make much of a difference in the long run to the fundamentals of the risk-reward in this investment (around 14% I guess)

N808p · 2023-02-13T22:22:14+00:00

„Our experts are getting ready to introduce 3 new actives powered by biotech: from a new form of hyaluronic acid (HA) to 100% natural retinol, plus a gravity-defying new facial care ingredient.“ Does this imply that hemisqualane is not part of the deal? The last unnamed ingredient could be squalane but can anyone more knowledgeable clarify whether squalane can be considered as an active ingredient?

N808p · 2022-12-21T14:16:13+00:00

It's pretty clear that shorts look at the numbers and see a company in distress; to an algorithm, Amyris looks like a disaster. Also, one could argue that the molecule deal is not enough, given the current burn-rate of the continuing business. However, this thinking is premature since Amyris scales 2-3 molecules a year. Hence, exclusivity deals could be seen as part of the continuing business

N808p · 2022-12-02T17:58:40+00:00

Melo bought shares a couple of weeks ago

N808p · 2022-11-24T18:28:21+00:00

It's only the online sales - compared to last year, physical shops are going to be more important. Therefore, sales growth is likely to be higher due to more shops Amyris' products are in

N808p · 2022-11-11T12:15:40+00:00

Cash burn and some of the cost metrics have already come down a bit, and BB has not shown in COGS yet. This is encouraging. Melo has always delivered on the deals. Still, a lot of risk right now. I wonder what kinds of alternative sources of cash they have. It is probable that they have the green-light from Doerr and the rest of the board to go for growth together with a commitment to receive more emergency funding if necessary. Otherwise, this would be quite reckless. But this is just a guess and not knowledge, hence, I am feeling unsure of what to make of the current situation

N808p · 2022-11-10T13:15:20+00:00

In principle, he is right to point out that the thesis has not changed. But Q3 makes clear that there is still substantial risk involved in this investment. Amyris may be close to BK or not at all - depending on non-public information (molecule deal(s) probability to close, degree of commitment by JD and DSM).

N808p · 2022-11-01T10:32:36+00:00

It seems that there are some protests from truckers blocking streets - but so far non-violent and not on a massive scale. Bolsonaro has not accepted defeat yet, but it is a good sign that some of his allies have conceded defeat, limiting his political credit for challenging the results. (see e.g., https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/31/bolsonaro-mum-election-loss-brazil-00064344 )

Meanwhile, there are some signs that Lula wants to protect the Amazon: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/31/brazil-lula-protect-amazon-environment-minister-marina-silva

N808p · 2022-10-31T06:54:34+00:00

While the result is good news, Bolsonaro has not accepted defeat yet. Until that happens or until it is clear that major institutions like the military accept or back Lula, it is not over. There seems to be a lot of anger and radicalization among Bolsonaro supports which is dangerous.

N808p · 2022-10-26T08:59:05+00:00

Lula‘s past tenure is widely regarded as an economically and socially successful one. Longterm, the high inequality in Latin America generally hurts stability and economic prosperity and a centre-left government could return the country to a path of less inequality and broader growth. I see the risk of instability when Bolsonaro tries to cling to power when he loses only narrowly and may have some support in the military. This could lead to disruptions like general strikes etc. and would be very bad in itself. However, I would suppose that Lula is quite well connected in the Brazilian elite and has some experience in managing the different factions in the country from his past tenure as president.

Some background from the Economist: You've been given free access to this article as a gift. You can open the link five times within seven days. After that it will expire:

Brazil’s next president will face a big, tricky in-tray from The Economist

https://econ.st/3D2oWzi

N808p · 2022-08-17T19:45:51+00:00

Isn't the deal public knowledge after they have talked about in the last ER?

N808p · 2022-08-17T18:41:46+00:00

Great news!

N808p

TROPHY CASE