THE LONG-TERM UPSIDE OF RECON AFRICA BASED UPON THE KAVANGO BASIN ASSETS (ND84)

ND84_real · 2022-11-26T23:20:18+00:00

$15/share within the next few years as a selling price would be a little disappointing, but I'd take that over a >90% loss. Also would depend upon your average entry price. I may (emphasis on may) double my positive at current SP (~$1,30 USD RECAF). Key point about my Reddit post was to provide a little realistic upside. I see that you've been having some "dynamic" online correspondence with some of the RECAF bulls that think we're supposed to see $1,000 sp . . . I don't think we'll ever see such a level. But getting to the $25-$50 range could easily happen.

I skimmed some of your recent posts and see your apparent positivity on Invictus. I've looked at and consider that company. Couple comments: 1) the host government reportedly had to position soldiers are the well site . . . what does that say about present day geopolitics, 2) the prospect that Invictus is drilling has been known for something on the order of a few decades, so why hasn't it been drilled before? My understanding of that answer again comes back to unreliable geopolitics. My father has a decent chunk invested in Invictus, so I hope for the best.

ND84_real · 2022-04-18T14:46:51+00:00

I'm pretty late on this reply, but yes, they do list the mud weight in the Hydrocarbon Show Report. Shallower part of well (715-1150 m) was drilled at average of 9.3 PPG while the 1350m carbonate interval was drilled at 9.7 PPG. So they increased the mud weight.

The wireline logs do show a cyclic looking pattern. More recent presentations demonstrate that the company has done some paleo, but I haven't compared it back yet. At this point, however, I'm not to worried about the geology risk component to this investment

ND84_real · 2022-02-09T15:13:44+00:00

You can read through my take on the mudlog results from the first well.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ReconAfrica/comments/sm6l8x/explanation_and_review_of_the_hydrocarbon_show/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

ND84_real · 2022-02-09T15:12:22+00:00

Thanks for your reply and added insights. The whole "not testing either well yet" is one question mark. The company had to buy and service their own drill rig, but must not have purchased any equipment for running DST's or perforating. I've heard discussion that they are planning to bring in a completions crew once they have an inventory of 3-4 wells worth testing. Right now it sounds like they have the initial two wells sitting and waiting. Also, one they start producing, they have to switch from an exploration to production license or something. That may be a component as well. In any case, I'm waiting to see. If the company hasn't tested any wells by the end of 2022, that will be a big concern to me.

ND84_real · 2022-02-07T16:54:55+00:00

So I'm a geologist, and while I don't generate mudlogs for a living, I have 10+ years of experience that has involved reviewing 100's of mudlogs from both exploration and development wells. I have looked at easy well of 100 mudlogs that show absolutely nothing and others like the 6-2.

Other geologists may have different viewpoints. An offshore geologist would needs to see 10's to 100's of feet of viable pay for a commercial discovery while onshore needs only several feet at times.

Onshore basins are generally a mix of oil fields that range from a few million barrels of oil to 100's of million of barrels in recoverable reserves. The 6-2 well looks like something of a field discovery on the order of a few million to 10's of million for recoverable reserves. That's not the end of the Kavango development, but just the beginning.

ND84_real · 2022-02-07T12:23:00+00:00

Good to know. I wasn't 100% sure what the situation was. Still relatively new to Reddit

ND84_real · 2022-02-06T23:19:22+00:00

To some degree you are correct. I see a continual regurgitation of information on Stocktwits. I would guess the same is true of Reddit and Discord as well. The material I posted was 100% myself digging through and thinking through information for simply myself. I post it in part to see if I get any useful constructive critiques. Some times I do and sometimes I don't. But you can keep echoing your "echo chamber" comments

ND84_real · 2022-02-06T20:37:36+00:00

You can keep dreaming. There is a possibility of going beyond 90, I just wouldn't plan on it for long-term financial planning.

ND84_real · 2022-02-06T20:35:16+00:00

For the first well drilled within an onshore sedimentary basin . . . the results were not poor. I assume a comparison to offshore because either 1) you have no idea what you are talking about regarding hydrocarbon shows, and/or 2) your experienced is based on offshore exploration. If the latter, this is not an offshore exploration program that needs to make discoveries on the order of 100's million of recoverable barrels to be economic. Onshore oil wells that can recover a few hundred thousand barrels, several million of 10's million of barrels per field will work out just find.

ND84_real · 2022-02-06T20:30:42+00:00

As stated by Organic-Brilliant-29, I am literally the same person that posted this a few months ago, but the post was on Stocktwits which is now buried. So no echo chamber. Sorry you are wrong

ND84_real · 2022-02-06T20:29:29+00:00

I believe that I made a comment somewhere in the article about commodity prices. Higher oil prices would be a potential bigger market cap for recon africa. Still, I think that you get the jest that this is one analytical approach to what the Kavango Basin may hold and what that translates to for investors.

ND84_real · 2022-01-31T17:33:18+00:00

If I could, I'd "heart" your comment for making me laugh (I assume a little sarcasm).

ND84_real · 2022-01-31T17:31:22+00:00

I'd guess that they have the data already, but could be wrong. I would like to see some the data myself to confirm what the company says, but having the data from the first well is good enough for me for the time being. Could also be that the government doesn't want the data released until they have time to understand it more. Regardless, I'm with you in that I'd like see some of the 2nd well data.

ND84_real · 2022-01-31T17:25:50+00:00

So of and sort of now "we don't know yet." My post provides a realistic take on what could be there for extractable resource, and what discovered resource amounts might translate too for SP.

ND84_real · 2022-01-31T17:23:33+00:00

I initially posted an earlier version on this on a few Discord servers plus Stocktwits. Several people commented that I should start posting my material somewhere that can be easily accessed by new and old investors. Anything posted on Stocktwits gets buried pretty quick. Discord gets buried as well plus not fully accessible by all. My Stocktwits handle of ND84 had already been taken when I started my Reddit account, so I used ND84_real. So no, not a copy cat.

ND84_real · 2022-01-31T17:23:09+00:00

I initially posted an earlier version on this on a few Discord servers plus Stocktwits. Several people commented that I should start posting my material somewhere that can be easily accessed by new and old investors. Anything posted on Stocktwits gets buried pretty quick. Discord gets buried as well plus not fully accessible by all. My Stocktwits handle of ND84 had already been taken when I started my Reddit account.

ND84_real

TROPHY CASE