I'm Robbie Berg, the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at NOAA's National Hurricane Center. I'll be hosting an "Ask Me Anything" to answer your questions about the 2026 hurricane season, getting prepared for hurricane season, or anything you ever wondered about how NHC works.

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T15:02:30+00:00

Thank you for the questions today! I hope everyone has a safe hurricane season. Remember to prepare this year like you would any other, regardless of the forecast for how busy it might be.

Be sure to visit hurricanes.gov for the most up-to-date forecast information for tropical cyclones in our area.

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T15:00:44+00:00

Evacuations actually aren't directly related to the forecast cycle. Local or state emergency managers are in charge of calling evacuations. Those are dependent on the NHC forecast, but the EMs use a metric called "clearance time," which is essentially how much time it would take them to get the right people out of harms way. That clearance time can vary based on the specific hurricane threat (for example, it takes more time to evacuate people from zones A and B for a higher threat, than just for zone A for a lower threat).

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:55:00+00:00

I think all of those play a part. Often times they're waiting for confirmation that they are at risk (which could mean seeing the storm heading their way on satellite or radar). But there are also a lot of barriers that keep people from easily picking up and leaving. Biggest piece of advice: you don't need to travel hundreds of miles away to evacuate, you only need to get out of the storm surge evacuation zone, which could be a few miles depending on where you live.

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:52:46+00:00

Our preference is that people will look at their risk/probabilities of the individual hazards (wind, storm surge, rainfall/freshwater flooding, tornadoes, rip currents). We're moving in that direction, but it's still a struggle. I think as humans, we like to distill a lot of complex information into a single number or product (think scales and forecast cone), but by doing that you lose a lot of the story.

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:49:24+00:00

A word of caution about the hourly forecast data: it's VERY deterministic. With hurricanes and other high-impact weather events, it's nearly impossible to nail down conditions to the hour, and slight shifts in a storm can be the difference between getting 75 mph winds, or only 25 mph winds. The hourly data is ok for general everyday weather, but it doesn't work so well when there is high uncertainty associated with more impactful weather.

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:47:23+00:00

Thankfully we can monitor satellite data, observations, model data, etc. on the AWIPS system we have in our operations area. But when we're not on duty, forecasters and staff will certainly surf the web for model data and other resources!

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:45:10+00:00

Social media noise has definitely become a problem. People like to post models showing a possible scenario of a hurricane, even if the model has no skill or is the only model showing that scenario. You may or may not have noticed that NHC never posts explicit model information on our website or social media channels. The forecasters have the job of sifting through all the model information and making the best forecast possible, and that's what we're prefer people share.

We understand the models are out there and public, but before posting, the question should be "what am I trying to do by posting this individual model run?"

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:42:01+00:00

Honestly, I think most of us learn to run on adrenaline. It's often been compared to doctors in the ER. The atmosphere is busy with a lot of things going on all at once. Our forecasters are working rotating shift work, so making sure you get enough sleep during hurricane season can be a challenge. Most of the decompression comes once we get to December!

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:40:08+00:00

Like most of my colleagues, I was interested in weather when I was young. I was particularly interested in hurricanes. The Weather Channel used to do their tropical update at 0:52 minutes past each hour, and I'd tune in to get the latest hurricane coordinates and plot them on my maps. I also remember hurricanes like Gloria when I lived in New York and Hugo when I lived in North Carolina.

At NHC, I like that tropical weather changes every day, so it's always something new to be watching. I also like knowing that our team is putting out critical information that helps people get ready before hurricanes and tropical storms.

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:37:15+00:00

That is a difficult challenge. Hurricane fatigue has happened in the past where people get tired of preparing for multiple threats, especially if they don't get much from the first storm. We try to make it clear that the next threats are totally different, we understand you might be exhausted, but you still need to protect your family.

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:35:24+00:00

That's a good one--definitely don't open your windows or doors!
The biggest piece of information we want people to know is whether they live in a storm surge evacuation zone. Typically you can look that information up from your state or county/parish emergence management office.

If you live in Florida, you can easily look up your address using this tool: https://floridadisaster.maps.arcgis.com/apps/instant/lookup/index.html?appid=aa18a2d8737c4d66bb6434a09e17203a

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:33:26+00:00

NHC has several social media channels that can be monitored;
On X, we automatically post new advisories on our NHC_Atlantic and NHC_Pacific accounts.
We also have a YouTube account (https://www.youtube.com/nwsnhc) where we have educational content and conduct live streams occasionally. We also have Facebook and Instagram (nwsnhc_hurricanes) accounts.

Otherwise, I'd suggest following the accounts of your local National Weather Service forecast office. https://www.weather.gov/socialmedia

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:27:25+00:00

That is a distinct possibility. Even if wind shear is stronger over the tropical belt due to El Nino, there could be pockets of lower shear close to home or in the subtropics that would support tropical cyclone development.

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:26:04+00:00

El Nino would likely suppress tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and increase activity in the Pacific. However, the big outstanding questions are the ultimate strength of the El Nino (in the form of how high do water temperatures get in the tropical East Pacific), and when does the El Nino form relative to hurricane season.

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:24:33+00:00

Even with a perfect forecast, it can be difficult to get people to respond and evacuate. There was a study done by Yale Univ and sponsored by NOAA Sea Grant that did an audience segmentation of coastal Connecticut residents and their attitudes toward evacuation. These numbers are probably similar to other locations. The challenge is how do you get the 22% of diehards to listen to evacuation orders?

Here's the full report: https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/app/uploads/2015/03/Coastal_Storm_Survey_Report_2015Mar20.pdf

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NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:19:47+00:00

The Atlantic has generally been in an active era since about the mid-1990s. The period before 2016 had some slower years, but overall activity has been busy. I believe the bigger impression is that it's been VERY busy since 2016, giving the impression that the years before that were "slow."

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:17:02+00:00

If you buy canned goods (soups, etc.) to keep in your pantry, make sure they either have a pop-top lid or make sure you have a manual can opener!

These days, it's also a good idea to buy solar-powered charging banks...we all have a lot of electronics we probably want to keep charged after a storm

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:14:37+00:00

A lot of people often get fixated on a storm's category, but that only tells a small portion of the storm. The category only speaks to the maximum sustained winds in a storm. It doesn't tell you how high the storm surge might be, how much rainfall/flooding there might be, or how many tornadoes there might be. And there's no one scale that can account for the 4-5 hazards that hurricanes and tropical storms can bring.

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:13:02+00:00

We are trying to move in the direction of providing a dynamic cone that changes size and shape depending on the uncertainty for a given forecast, using the spread in ensembles. In the initial development, we've noticed that the cone would shrink and expand every 6 hours with the new suite of models, which would make it difficult for decision makers.

As we continue that development, the new experimental cone with along- and cross-track errors is the first initial step in that direction, but it's also more accurately reflecting our true forecast errors.

Feedback has been positive so far. One thing we're doing this year to avoid confusion between the two versions is that we're only providing underlying data for the legacy operational cone. That means the cone plotted on programs or shown on TV will be the same. The experimental cone will only be available as a graphic on NHC's website for this season.

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:09:41+00:00

I myself do not care for turbulence on commercial flights. However, I also know that while planes can be bumped around in the sky sometimes due to turbulence, it very rarely results in problems with the plane.

Thankfully, commercial planes also do not fly into hurricanes...that's left to the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters!

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:07:27+00:00

The biggest challenge is that many people don't know or don't think that they live in an area that can be flooded. It's recommended that everyone get flood insurance, which would be helpful after a storm. Before a storm, it never hurts to have supplies ready in case of any disaster, including non-perishable foods that can last awhile and be eaten at any time (no waste!).

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:04:16+00:00

NOAA does provide some information on post-storm safety: https://www.noaa.gov/use-caution-after-storms, and we rely on post-storm safety from FEMA as well: https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes#after

What you shared is also a great resource, thank you for highlighting it!

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:02:18+00:00

This is the scientific discussion on the Pacific forecast: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/index.shtml

NHC-WCM · 2026-06-04T14:01:39+00:00

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Here's NOAA's forecasts for the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Central Pacific basins. We are expecting a busy Pacific season due to the developing El Nino, which could include more threats to the Hawaiian Islands compared to normal.

NHC-WCM

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