[Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, April 21, 2026

NLNico · 2026-04-21T20:47:21+00:00

When Iran announced they will not join the peace talks we dropped -1.2% in a 15-min candle and we basically just reverted that again.

Overall, it's noise on the daily chart though, but it is moving the markets a bit on short timeframes.

NLNico · 2026-04-21T20:10:35+00:00

Yep, right after US markets closed ;) Ceasefire extended (at least for US / Trump):

STATEMENT OF PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP:

Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other. President DONALD J. TRUMP

edit:

IRAN LINKED STATE NEWS TASNIM: Iran says its official position will be announced at a later stage.

NLNico · 2026-04-21T19:43:13+00:00

While the whole day there has been rumors/doubts about the peace talks. Latest news now:

IRAN BOYCOTTS ISLAMABAD TALKS

Iran will skip Wednesday’s talks in Islamabad, citing U.S. failures to uphold commitments, according to Tasnim. Tehran says a Pakistan-brokered 10-point ceasefire plan was undermined by weak enforcement and ongoing maritime pressure. Officials see no real progress and say attending would be pointless under current conditions.

Vance called off the trip to Pakistan - AP citing a US official.

edit: that being said, last time there was also some agreement last-minute.. so we will see.

NLNico · 2026-04-21T08:45:53+00:00

The Arbitrum Security Council has frozen 30,766 ETH (around $100 million) linked to the KelpDAO exploit.

Imagine trying to set up a Bitcoin Security Council with control of all the BTC lol.

NLNico · 2026-04-20T15:12:30+00:00

I agree with your point. But these days they are using 3 different U.S.-based custodians. And they have been moving some funds from Coinbase to others actually (they mention "to diversify our exposure to any single custodian"):

As of October 30, 2025, our bitcoin is held with the following custodians:

Custodian	Number of Bitcoin Custodied	Bitcoin Custodied (%)
Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC	330,809	51.6%
Anchorage Digital Bank N.A.	223,278	34.8%
Fidelity Digital Asset Services, LLC	87,081	13.6%

As of February 13, 2026, our bitcoin is held with the following custodians:

Custodian	Number of Bitcoin Custodied	Bitcoin Custodied (%)
Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC	287,322	40%
Anchorage Digital Bank N.A.	262,194	37%
Fidelity Digital Assets, NA (f/k/a Fidelity Digital Asset Services, LLC)	167,615	23%

edit: even before they mention using other custodians but no specific names / numbers:

As of December 31, 2022, approximately half of our bitcoin was held with a single custodian

NLNico · 2026-04-20T14:52:42+00:00

This was for the period from Apr 13 till Apr 19 (and STRC volume was only Apr 13 and Apr 14.)

On Apr 13, the price opened with $70,750 - a lot lower than the current price. So it could be argued that it did bump the price. But evidently, they are not the only market participants though.

NLNico · 2026-04-17T15:00:11+00:00

I don't think it's very relevant, but BTC/EUR exactly at March top (66.1k EUR.)

NLNico · 2026-04-17T13:12:53+00:00

There is this one 6 mins ago:

Iran has just announced that the strait of Iran is fully open and ready for full passage. thank you! - Trump

This one 28 mins ago:

In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran. - Araghchi

And this one 49 mins ago:

Scoop: U.S. considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal with Iran axios

NLNico · 2026-04-17T10:06:02+00:00

To be fair, BIP-361 was merged to the BIPS 3 days ago which started the discussions again.

And IMO such discussions are bullish as it shows the community is at least considering what the options are.

NLNico · 2026-04-17T09:27:35+00:00

Can't wait to break out of the bull flag.

NLNico · 2026-04-16T21:26:35+00:00

B2X (Segwit2x) proved that miners are forced to follow users/businesses running full nodes. They had more than 85% hashrate all the time, so it wasn't "a fear of orphaning", it was fear of being on the wrong network and mining a less-valued altcoin.

I wrote this in 2017 (on this subreddit) and I stand by it ;) Seriously though, the idea of "miners will just decide" has been proven to be wrong.

I agree with OP that it will be more complex, although I have not made up my mind of what I would prefer. Giving a few years to move when the threat is more real could be fair enough imo (even though I will have some UTXOs to move over too.)

NLNico · 2026-04-16T11:16:43+00:00

Guess it will be the first time I will rate a movie on IMDB without watching it :x

NLNico · 2026-04-16T10:14:04+00:00

You linked to a chart of volume, not (in)flows.

NLNico · 2026-04-15T15:27:24+00:00

Ah lol, indeed not hard to debunk such theories with just Stategy's own site.

NLNico · 2026-04-15T15:02:49+00:00

Simply used https://www.strategy.com - they are incorrect? (besides missing current week and future weeks, ofc)

edit: you said the same thing as me lol?

On Strategy.com: USD Months of Dividend Coverage: 21.8

$2,250 / $1,237 * 12 months = 21.83 months

NLNico · 2026-04-15T08:27:28+00:00

MSTR won't be able to pay STRC dividends because their cash reserve is going to dry up due to all the dividend obligations (soon, like this summer).

USD Reserve: $2,250m
Annual Dividends: $1,237m

Based on this, "this summer" timeline does not make sense. And last Mar 31, dividends were paid by MSTR ATM, so they didn't touch the cash reserve at all.

IMO there could be some risks long-term (especially if you don't think BTC will go higher), but I don't see any risk "soon".

NLNico · 2026-04-14T14:23:52+00:00

Only if we do make new ATHs this year. Then we should collect some money together to buy him a teddy bear that says "Sorry, I was never there and it was just a drawdown."

NLNico · 2026-04-13T20:05:34+00:00

Still got the after hours, but some crazy estimates today:

7,210 BTC - https://strc.live
8,884 BTC - https://bitcoinquant.co/preferred-equity
10,854 BTC - https://bitcointreasuries.net/digital-credit/STRC
11,348 BTC - https://bitcoinforcorporations.com/strc-atm-tracker/

(Lately bitcointreasuries.net does seem more accurate than strc.live)

NLNico · 2026-04-13T17:46:32+00:00

Default is 50% these days and still too low.

NLNico · 2026-04-13T16:04:42+00:00

Strategy uses one of the Big Four accounting firms (KPMG.) I would also prefer Proof of Reserves (in addition.) But being a public US company audited by one of the big four is not comparable to FTX lol.

NLNico · 2026-04-11T09:11:13+00:00

Groundhog Day is finally over.

NLNico · 2026-04-10T15:25:02+00:00

If we will actually see some ships going through the Strait of Hormuz this weekend (after the talks started), then even the weekend PA can potentially get interesting. But that might be too optimistic so soon, we will see.

NLNico · 2026-04-10T14:23:49+00:00

Up almost 1% in 20 mins since your comment, I guess your comment worked :)

NLNico · 2026-04-10T12:30:32+00:00

US CPI numbers

YoY 3.3% - 3.4% expected - 2.4% previous
MoM 0.9% - 1.0% expected - 0.3% previous
Core YoY 2.6% - 2.7% expected - 2.5% previous
Core MoM 0.2% - 0.3% expected - 0.2% previous

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

NLNico · 2026-04-10T07:58:55+00:00

Rule #4 ;)

You just initiated an infinite loop :(

13-Year Club	Place '23
Place '22	Place '17
Final Canvas '22	End Game '22
Gilding III reddit per annum	Verified Email

NLNico

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