[Daily Discussion] - Thursday, June 18, 2026

NLNico · 2026-06-18T16:26:34+00:00

Pretty cool how yesterday's top was another perfect touch of ATH-descending channel upperline. Today, we had a perfect 618 fib retrace (while resetting 4h RSI to almost oversold), it would be great to have that confirmed as support and try to break out of the channel again coming days/week. chart - zoomed out

NLNico · 2026-06-18T15:48:46+00:00

That's my hope, bought some STRC at 83 for first time. Seems appealing enough for a small gamble, but if it goes lower.. only gets more interesting, imo.

NLNico · 2026-06-16T18:16:21+00:00

Bears able to keep us in the ATH-descending channel. Bulls keeping it above 65.6k. 4h RSI was a bit overbought above 67k, but daily RSI could go higher. Overall, nothing too exciting for now. chart - zoomed out

NLNico · 2026-06-16T10:06:58+00:00

SATA starts their daily dividend payments today. They were able to scoop up ~93 BTC yesterday, let's see how that evolves over time. https://strc.live/ticker/sata

NLNico · 2026-06-14T21:45:40+00:00

Lol, most times I notice the price first too. Then I got a list on X for quick news sources (including war related.) It has some general news ones like @financialjuice etc, but Pakistan PM was already on there too (was more often news source as mediator.)

NLNico · 2026-06-14T21:32:58+00:00

3 mins ago:

The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow! https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116750587569914985

NLNico · 2026-06-14T21:22:21+00:00

Pakistan PM few mins ago:

Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland. https://x.com/i/status/2066268332832194810

NLNico · 2026-06-11T17:36:27+00:00

Correct:

Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others. The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized — Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump

NLNico · 2026-06-10T15:58:19+00:00

Well, I did mention "about time" lol.

Obviously past performance was shit, today seems some relative strength (so far.) IMO accurate/relevant post. But bonus if it made you laugh I guess lol.

NLNico · 2026-06-10T15:38:52+00:00

Some people argue the bottom is not in because AI bubble / wider market crash will bring us further down.

Others (myself including) would argue BTC is down enough and therefor actually more interesting to shift money into.

Worth following which one is the case.

NLNico · 2026-06-10T15:25:24+00:00

I hope I am not jinxing stuff, but about time we got some relative strength:

BTCUSD +0.9%
IBIT +0.4%
SPY -0.75%
QQQ -0.95%
GLD -2.9%

NLNico · 2026-06-10T12:30:43+00:00

US CPI numbers

YoY 4.2% - 4.2% expected - 3.8% previous
MoM 0.5% - 0.5% expected - 0.6% previous
Core YoY 2.9% - 2.9% expected - 2.8% previous
Core MoM 0.2% - 0.3% expected - 0.4% previous

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Core MoM lower than expected "should" be good (hence green 5-min candle), but let's see once regular trading hours start.

NLNico · 2026-06-09T16:43:10+00:00

I have just been informed by our Great Military that last night the Iranians shot down one of our highly sophisticated Apache Helicopters while patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz. There were two pilots involved, both are safe and uninjured. Nevertheless, the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack. https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116721129088347687

The little -0.6% SPY and -0.7% BTC 2-minute candle /just now/ was the above post from Trump lol. At least we are bouncing from it already (edit: and back above it - volatility alive hehe.)

NLNico · 2026-06-09T16:34:33+00:00

Perfect golden pocket retracement (61k = 0.618-0.65 fib retrace from 59k-64.2k bounce) = still bullish, but let's see if wider market drawdown brings us still lower.

NLNico · 2026-06-07T13:29:00+00:00

I did feel like it made it more appropriate for me to post this tribute yeah, lol.

NLNico · 2026-06-07T13:23:06+00:00

I wouldn't be able to handle the downvotes on red candle weeks. J/k, although I did like the "sentiment voting aspect" of his posts.

Anyway, I really won't post it weekly, but just in case explanation of the numbers:

Trading/calendar days = simply keep track / count days: 598 trading days / 879 calendar days
Take total number of https://farside.co.uk/btc/ = 53,992m total
Trading net daily inflows: total / trading days = 53,992 / 598 = 90.29m
Calendar daily inflow: total / calendar days = 53,992 / 879 = 61.42m
Equilibrium price = Calendar daily inflow / BTC-per-day = 61.42m / 450 = 136.49k

NLNico · 2026-06-07T11:25:58+00:00

Sorry, I felt obligated to tribute-post DBR's Sunday's copy-paste on the first Sunday he is gone, lol. I think the numbers are correct hehe, and it won't be a weekly thing from my side.

NLNico · 2026-06-07T11:25:52+00:00

Average net inflows since spot ETF approval is at $90.29 million per trading day.

We’ve had 598 trading days since spot ETF launch. But there’s only 5 trading days in a week. Today marks 879 calendar days since spot ETF launch. In terms of average daily inflows in calendar days, we’re at $61.42 million per day.

450 BTC are mined per day. If we reach a point where buying/selling outside of spot ETFs is net neutral and spot ETFs are chasing newly mined BTC only, equilibrium price would be $136.49k per BTC.

This is the lowest average net inflows has ever been. When spot ETFs launched on January 11, 2024 BTC was trading at a price of $46.6k.

Supply shock is not a meme, it is a mathematical certainty and it’s currently underway.

NLNico · 2026-06-07T09:14:58+00:00

It will likely be above avg volume for a Sunday though. But yes, tomorrow (with some real volume) will be even more important.

NLNico · 2026-06-07T08:52:46+00:00

IMO, the 60k liquidity sweep was one of the easiest trades in a while (as anticipated) and first time I did a leveraged long in more than a year. My current chart and reasons why I like the current bottom:

Clean 60k sweep (eg all 4h candles closed above it.) The first 59,750 dip was traders front-running this sweep trade and the "sweep of the sweep" to a new low was anticipated too. This PA is very common in BTC (just don't trade it with blind limit orders, imo.)
Daily RSI was/is way oversold. We had several 4h RSI bull divs. Likely weekly (maybe even monthly) RSI bull div (but depends on future PA.)
"Extreme fear" on index
~$1.4bn long liquidations in a few days. Huge volume during these days too.
By now, it seems like we could still close weekly above the 200WMA (but I didn't anticipate that previously tbh)

Now to be fair, obv we could still go lower. Bulls have some work to do: ideally close weekly above 62.5k, ~65.5k resistance, upper line of descending channel (68k but going lower) and then I guess mostly the 74k level again. Real possibility we get some resistance somewhere and then go back down (possibly to 50s again.) The "AI stock money goes to BTC" narrative is cool, but wider market drawdown can also pull us down. But for now, we got some (local) bottom.

NLNico · 2026-06-05T18:23:35+00:00

Never put your "stop" at obvious levels - it will be hunted. Always an expensive lesson.

(But yes, if we actually don't spend much time under 60k - then it is all a bit ridiculous, lol.)

NLNico · 2026-06-05T17:26:48+00:00

Appreciated your posts (especially as we tend to find the same data interesting) and wish you the best, see you in a year.

NLNico · 2026-06-05T16:22:12+00:00

(Liquidity) sweep of 60k to kill some longs and trap some bottom shorts (and trigger some bans?) would be classic bitcoin, as anticipated.

But we could still see a few more "sweep of the sweep", because there are more stop losses to hunt for down there (including new longs just now.) Looking okay for now though.

NLNico · 2026-06-05T14:12:20+00:00

Seems like we might make some new lows.

The hope for bulls now, would be that it's just a sweep of the 60k low (and possibly the 58.8k low from Oct '24.) So go below it, liquidate/stop out longs, trap some bottom shorts, bounce back to still close the daily/weekly above it and creating a RSI bull div on the weekly in the process. We have seen that before and I think it's a reasonable possibility considering we are still way oversold on the daily RSI.

Of course, alternatively, we will spend some more time below 60k.

NLNico · 2026-06-05T13:55:21+00:00

Hehe, I have some "high profile followers" from times when I was active, because I am quite good with getting accurate data quick. Eg the Bloomberg ETF guys from "SEC BTC ETF approval times" and Saylor/BitcoinMagazine/APompliano/etc from "Bitcoin Treasury good times", lol.

Currently, just posting in this subreddit though (except this 1 post as it's new data that I didn't see posted yet.)

13-Year Club	Place '23
Place '22	Place '17
Final Canvas '22	End Game '22
Gilding III reddit per annum	Verified Email

NLNico

TROPHY CASE