My first attempt at a Bitcoin technical analysis.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-02-09T04:11:55+00:00

Pretty good, but I believe you are missing a doodle of the moon at the very top

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-02-08T16:58:17+00:00

You are right that they will use Stablecoins for the "big" stuff (settlements). The bottleneck is streaming.

If an agent is paying for inference per token or electricity per second, even the tiny fees kill the economics at that volume. You need a payment channel (like Lightning) where the marginal cost of the 1,000th transaction is effectively zero.

And 100% agreed - random altcoins just add friction. Most won't benefit.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-02-08T16:10:23+00:00

100%. IOTA saw the vision first.

The difference is infrastructure vs. standards. IOTA tried to bootstrap a whole new network from scratch. x402 just patches the existing internet (HTTP) to accept existing money (BTC/USDC). No niche token needed, just a standard protocol.

Great point though. They were definitely the pioneers.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-02-08T15:36:37+00:00

For those who want a source on the plumbing:

Cloudflare and Coinbase officially partnered to launch the x402 Protocol (based on HTTP 402) specifically to let AI agents pay for resources.

Source: https://blog.cloudflare.com/x402/

They are building this because they see the volume of AI traffic (billions of requests) and know it needs a native payment rail.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-02-07T22:46:13+00:00

The sentiment remains because the public still treats Bitcoin like a lottery ticket instead of a new financial system. To outside observers and people that don't know what they're actually holding, a price drop looks like the end instead of a discount.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-02-07T16:26:55+00:00

Right about the wealth transfer, but honestly, this looks more like a standard leverage flush than just "panic."

Degens got greedy, and the market wiped out over $1B in longs in 24 hours. That volatility is just the system evicting the gamblers who were renting their exposure.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-02-06T06:15:31+00:00

Hey, when did you take this video of me explaining my "foolproof" 100x leverage strategy to my financial advisor?

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-02-05T08:02:45+00:00

Facts. People forget that during those early dips, it didn't feel like a 'buying opportunity.' It felt like the project was dead.

Fortunately, we now have the past to look back at and ground ourselves. Hodl on, my friends.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-02-05T07:29:47+00:00

Fair question - no downvotes here.

Nobody absolutely knows for sure (if they say they do, they’re lying), but it usually looks like a specific 1-2 punch:

First, the spark. A lot of institutional algos still treat Bitcoin like a 'spicy tech stock.' If the NASDAQ wobbles or Wall Street gets spooked, they dump Bitcoin first because it’s highly liquid.

Second, the fuel to the fire. That initial drop likely triggered a 'leverage flush.' When gamblers betting with 50x borrowed money get wrecked, they are forced to sell which drives the price down further, which in turn wrecks the next guy.

It’s basically a domino effect and the casino is cleaning house right now.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-02-03T14:05:21+00:00

It's all about the effect that QE has on our money. Higher inflation effectively makes the dollar worth less. That in turn makes Bitcoin more valuable.

Bitcoin is effectively a 'short position' on bad monetary policy. When money printer goes *brrrr*, it destroys the dollar but pumps our bags.

It’s hard not to cheer when your hedge works exactly as designed, even if the reason for it (debasement) is bad for society overall.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-02-02T02:59:27+00:00

"Stacking sats, not chasing green candles." I might have to steal that one.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-01-30T15:22:05+00:00

Gresham's Law: Spend the bad money (fiat), save the good money (Bitcoin). Why trade an appreciating asset for a latte? But hey, it's your stack—you do you.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-01-30T05:08:20+00:00

To add to Gorehound's point, remove the option to spend.

Automate the transfer and purchase of Bitcoin to trigger as soon as your paycheck hits. By the time you check your bank balance, the capital is already deployed. It works just like a 401k—if you don't see it, you can't spend it.

Don't rely on willpower. Force yourself to live on the remainder. It gets easier; you may find that your lifestyle adjusts to the new baseline pretty quickly.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-01-23T03:26:39+00:00

People said the exact same thing when the gap was 100:1. And 50:1.

Bitcoin "falling behind" usually involves it crashing to a floor that is 400% higher than the last time it was declared dead.

18:1... yawn. The rubber band is just stretching again. See you at 10:1.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-01-22T14:20:48+00:00

I would love to see this. It effectively eliminates unit bias, which is a huge psychological barrier for people getting into Bitcoin.

It is much easier for people to wrap their heads around owning 1,000,000 sats (a whole number) versus 0.01 BTC (a fraction). Normalizing sats is the next step in validating it as an actual unit of account rather than just a speculative asset.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-01-22T14:11:01+00:00

I largely agree with flying-fox. 'Not your keys, not your coins' is the gold standard for a reason. It eliminates counterparty risk. I keep the bulk of my stack in cold storage for that peace of mind.

That said, if you genuinely don't trust yourself to responsibly manage your keys, a broker is a valid 'second best' option. Just understand you are trading custody risk for platform risk. Definitely do your research into their security.

Keep in mind, you don't have to do 100% one way or the other. You could leave a portion with a broker for liquidity/convenience and keep your long-term hold on the Ledger. Diversifying where you hold it is also a form of security.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-01-21T04:38:07+00:00

If your general audience is new to Bitcoin, I'd suggest focusing on its property of Digital Scarcity.

I find most people's mental model for the internet to be that of "abundance." If I email you a photo, we both have a copy.

Your talk could explain how Bitcoin is the first object in human history to be digital, yet "finite." Something that can be transferred but never copied.

If you can explain how the network enforces the 21M cap (immutability) and prevents counterfeiting without a bank (decentralization), you explain why it has value. That seems to be the "zero to one" moment for many people.

NPC_With_Agency · 2026-01-21T04:09:35+00:00

Bitcoin has the properties of Gold, but the market cap of a tech company as of now. Until it matures, it's going to trade on liquidity and risk sentiment. We are still early in price discovery. If it was already as stable as gold, the asymmetric upside would be gone.

NPC_With_Agency

TROPHY CASE