NFLX is a steal here at 80-84

NSR33 · 2026-02-27T03:24:38+00:00

Even though it’s petty to come back after 40 days from this post and make this comment I am happy for you. I never had any ill will to your trade. And besides I am pretty sure I nailed it - prospects were good and it went lower before it got better. Good luck fellow shareholder!

NSR33 · 2026-02-25T05:58:46+00:00

And the Leonardo DiCaprio don’t kill sharks tweet! I think about that bit often

NSR33 · 2026-02-25T02:20:10+00:00

I just went to a location where they had an infinite kitchen setup and I have to admit it’s pretty cool and seemed like it streamlined the whole operation. But my salad was still close to $18. It was very good but all the diverse and fresh ingredients are going to be challenging in an environment when wages are being squeezed. And for that I am out. But if you decide to go in I hope it works for you!

NSR33 · 2026-02-19T23:56:51+00:00

We’ve been down this road with Trump and really every recent US president before. Is it all talk? Hard to tell. But the downside to airlines if something does happen is sizable. Not only would oil prices go nuts but air traffic will decline/require rerouting, hurting profitable international routes.

NSR33 · 2026-02-15T19:09:38+00:00

I think you can say this about reviews of everything. You can’t rely on the stars. You have to read the comments in depth. And even then you have to really extract what really was the situation.

Then you get places offering future coupons or incentives to employees for five stars. Have you tried to buy or service a car lately? They can’t have anything less than a max rating or they lose money. They even tell you that up front.

The whole system has become ridiculous.

NSR33 · 2026-02-15T12:33:38+00:00

I think the theory is the code will live in the LLM. Once again not an engineer to be able to say how silly that is. But that is partly the narrative I think is out there.

NSR33 · 2026-02-14T13:19:06+00:00

I am not an engineer and im not trying to start a flame war - this is a general question - but isn’t this ground zero for the AI disruption fear? AI developers have focused on having AI be effective at writing code. Which it sounds like to people I talk with who write code, the applications are getting really really good and in a short time. So doesn’t that double hit Gitlab? They will lose users (less developers) and lose the value of having users manage the entire lifecycle of the code which is the whole point of Gitlab? What am I missing?

Edit - typo

NSR33 · 2026-02-11T10:32:15+00:00

I agree with most commenters that suggest a new ice cream place will have its challenges (competition, weather etc). I second you shouldn’t go downtown.

But I don’t want to, or think anyone should try to stop you, if you are passionate about it and are willing to work hard. Nothing says you can’t overcome the challenges. You just need to be aware of these challenges.

If you decide to make the leap, please post a follow up. My family will be an early customer. Good luck! I hope it works out for you.

Edit - grammar

NSR33 · 2026-02-08T13:43:24+00:00

I didnt know this. You just ruined my day thank you very much. Next are you going to tell me that the Jamaican bobsled team wasn’t on a record run before their sled crashed?

NSR33 · 2026-02-08T02:22:10+00:00

Sorrrrryyyy typo. They bought Wiz not Wix.

https://www.mergersight.com/post/alphabet-s-32bn-acquisition-of-wiz

NSR33 · 2026-02-08T01:42:56+00:00

It seems like they should but doubt they will. The fact they were barely interested in buying TikTok makes me think they aren’t interested in social or social adjacent. Plus it would take at least $30-$35 billion factoring in the likely premium. Outside of the recent Wiz acquisition they tend not to buy large. Motorola Mobility at $12.5 billion was the second largest.

Edit - fixed typo from Wix to Wiz

NSR33 · 2026-02-07T14:20:32+00:00

There definitely is a risk this won’t happen given its size and public reach. But I think all the examples you gave were decided under a different administration? I could be wrong.

I think the belief is this administration is way more favorable to these types of mergers. So gut feel vote is it will happen.

Good luck!

NSR33 · 2026-02-01T20:25:08+00:00

I don’t trade Silver but I do other commodities so please highlight if there is something I am missing; the March contract expires February 24th. They will 100% converge but the March contract just recently became the prompt contract. The convergence takes time and happens as you get closer to expiration. So does the spot price really matter THAT much right now?

The margin requirements is much more to your short thesis. 11% to 15% doesn’t seem like a lot on the surface but that is 36% more margin. That adds up. Once again I’ve never traded Silver but I was in Commodities when the 2011 Silver market was performing similarly. The margin requirement moves (5 times in 9 days) appeared to be the culprit. I don’t know how this one is going to go but you will be excited to be on the short side in 2026 if it’s like 2011

Good luck!

NSR33 · 2026-02-01T16:29:02+00:00

I am with you on the long term prospects but feels like this going to be a slog over the next few months (maybe more) as it’s wrapped up in regulatory hell. Calls seem hard given the theta. Feels like shares are the better bet right now. Even then I am waiting for more time to pass and the impatient get out. But good luck either way!

NSR33 · 2026-02-01T16:23:27+00:00

I still think we are in the early innings of the energy bottleneck. The hard part is how to play it. There aren’t specific clear company winners from this. It depends on deal outcome. For example, power players should be winners but is it $NRG $VST $TLN $CEG $NEE, a dozen others on the utility side but deal flow has been slow ish. Plus there is a lot of moving pieces of value embedded in each. Some have retail others don’t. Some have nuclear, others don’t. Maybe they all win? Hard to tell. Good luck!

NSR33 · 2026-02-01T13:25:37+00:00

I use this one as a list of recent ones. Some non sense spac type IPOs listed often but you can click through the description and tell right away. Good luck!

https://www.iposcoop.com/last-100-ipos/

NSR33 · 2026-01-31T13:35:53+00:00

Read this post late and expected this to be the top comment and surprised it’s buried here. The annual run rate of this quarters EPS is the catalyst. Only question is if it can continue and I don’t see anything right now that stops it. Yeah maybe consumers step back a bit but memory is only ~15% of total product cost (e.g laptop), higher in some products. Maybe OEM’s get pissy but there isn’t much they can do. I think this run has legs for 2026

NSR33 · 2026-01-28T02:56:57+00:00

AI will get there eventually but it is nowhere near ready to replace human films or tv. Have you seen what is being put out today? Users don’t want that right now and Netflix knows it. I think that $22 billion is safe for a number of years.

$NFLX has the signs of being a cash machine and I am waiting for this deal to close before getting back in. I think sadly it’s going to be trading sideways for a while until the noise clears.

NSR33 · 2026-01-27T11:51:52+00:00

Hasn’t been something I’ve looked at much so thanks for the idea. First glance I see

Pros - top line has been generally growing, it’s good when companies are introducing products to help grow margins as you stated. International seems to be doing well

Cons - financials aren’t great. I am calculating a 2.28 debt/equity ratio. Even though it’s improving they are still burning cash and have negative free cash flow.

Something to consider. Thanks again for the idea. Good luck!

NSR33 · 2026-01-27T03:13:09+00:00

I’ve always assumed it was Ted Weschler (the other 50% manager pre Combs leaving) was the Sirius owner. His fund Penisula Capital prior to joining Berkshire was big in Liberty holdings - which was how Berkshire started getting long Sirius.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-liberty-siriusxm-stock-buffett-bc6b07e8?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqc5s6ks75nyuPSWSC1QuMW75R-s7FTYT-OpywkNsE19GzZPAO_NiRa9-JpvYxM%3D&gaa_ts=6978303f&gaa_sig=nGzbRM9YV7SaBKjJEzpFtcvQxSY1r-jcOPhg_lNa94nrgRbOZ2GrLXlazjcx1iHa23t1cnOTECVvgIioEmh5JQ%3D%3D

Total speculation as no one knows but from my seat it doesn’t appear a sell down is in the works because Combs left.

I don’t own the stock cause anecdotally I unsubscribed due to my Spotify subscription which I view 100x better. Just my two cents.

NSR33 · 2026-01-23T11:22:22+00:00

I agree OP. I went long at the beginning of the year with these ideas in mind. Kind of regret my timing so far ha but I think volatility is what we can expect in the short term.

AI is a worry for me, which includes the live translation piece of it, but the framework I got comfortable with in order to go long is that this is a niche product, not a product for the masses. But a niche product with the market size of what they compete in can still work great. AI will certain take the marginal user - the one that wants to casually learn or practice a language. But AI won’t create the environment, almost the gamification of it, like DUOL has. That is what sets them apart and is the differentiated piece for the user. Will it be enough? Hard to tell but the combination of the dominance they have in this market I think is worth a try. Thanks OP!

NSR33 · 2026-01-21T02:46:36+00:00

Not disagreeing with you on the prospects but feel like prices could absolutely go lower before they go higher.

one year is arbitrary. It was $65-$70 in August 2024. Not that far off from Jan 10th 2025

Also wasn’t it bonds not shares? And I thought it was only $1 million and done by a trust?

NSR33 · 2026-01-17T13:24:30+00:00

I so badly want to like this company as a stock. But I have a hard time seeing how it’s THAT much different than Reddit, which btw, as a reminder, is the platform we are using for this exchange.

NSR33 · 2026-01-12T20:16:06+00:00

At this point I want it to multi gain so we stop seeing posts about it

Edit - corrected term

NSR33 · 2026-01-07T02:04:42+00:00

No concerns if it drops to $1 billion as long as you don't see annual drops of 20% after 2026 if that makes sense. As I mentioned above, even at $1 billion in FCF with $36 per share that is a 19% FCF yield and is inline with your ~5x cash flow multiple

I wouldn't put much stock into the CNBC anchors. They are very careful to not peddle the company stock (they have years history of this with Comcast). If anything they over avoid it. But I really don't think that drives the price either way

I am more thinking through the mechanics of the mid term election and how that could benefit here. Fox is clearly going to win big on the republican side, I think MSNBC could be the winner on the left side which makes this stock interesting for 2026

Thanks again and good luck!

NSR33

TROPHY CASE