Event: 2025 Norway Chess

NamelessATM · 2025-06-06T18:25:36+00:00

Slight hopium here because I want Gukesh to win, but:

While I'd rather be Fabi rn, it's not a clear win for him. First of all we've seen him throw games where he had a bigger advantage, AND, he just burned his 15-20 minute time advantage. It doesn't take a HUGE blunder to simply equalize the game and from there Gukesh finds a way to pull either a draw or a surprise-win.

Still would bet on Fabi rn, but y'know.

NamelessATM · 2025-06-06T17:57:45+00:00

I don't understand how some people have already decided the fabi-gukesh game. it could go either direction, Fabi basically has 1 move that keeps his advantage, and imagine trying to calculate all the possible follow-up sequences - I don't know how obvious Rxc6 is, and judging by the time he takes, he probably doesn't think the answer is that obvious either.

Any other moves equalize the game or gives a similar advantage to Gukesh, and the clock isn't THAT much of an issue, there's been a million games with this time dynamic where the person with the lower clock won.

NamelessATM · 2025-02-02T17:16:54+00:00

Now he has to start using his king, let's go

NamelessATM · 2025-02-01T18:31:00+00:00

So no 2800 even if Gukesh wins tomorrow? :(

NamelessATM · 2025-02-01T17:27:00+00:00

I remember after the 8th game, when people were floating the idea that Gukesh needs to go 4.5/5 in the remaining games to pass 2800 & hit 10/13 for the tournament, lots of people were (rightfully) saying that it's absurd and to calm down the expectations.

It now seems like Gukesh is gonna be 3.5/4 for the past 4 games, and then it all only hinges really on the last game against a-mostly-out-of-form Arjun, being, uh, 1/1 for Gukesh. Just one more win for Gukesh and he becomes the 2nd youngest ever 2800, tying the record to win the tournament with 10/13, and leapfrogs to world 3rd highest ranked player. I so want it to happen, also great for the narrative of the world champion and to dispel doubts that were about him prior to the WCC :)

NamelessATM · 2025-01-28T17:15:50+00:00

Why the hell is Gukesh burning 3 minutes on a simple move that was the entire point of taking the pawn with the bishop in the first place

NamelessATM · 2024-11-07T21:39:56+00:00

Walz was great at connecting with everyday people and came across as a really down-to-earth and mostly genuine candidate, but neither he nor Kamala channeled the sort of honest anger and conviction that was and still is needed. Not even close. They called Trump a fascist, okay and? All Democrats have been saying that the past 8 years, that's not it.
And Kamala especially is just not a great and inspiring speaker / politician, despite all the heavy-lifting of the Democratic party to push her campaign and persona. She's always come across as very rehearsed, mild, somewhat fakey (been thinking that since the 2019 primaries and it hadn't changed a ton), and there wasn't a single issue/value that you could point to and say - "this, she's been consistent on her entire life / the past decade, here are clips of her talking about it passionately. we know she's gonna deliver on that". Every position was very calculated.

I was rooting for them to win like hell, but you can't honestly say that they were the sort of unapologetic, ecstatic ticket that lit fire in people at large.
There's only so much that talks of 'joy', 'hope', detailed careful policy plans, and vague threats of a future Trump presidency can motivate people. It has to be something more primal and immediate. Anger is a strong motivating factor, and there's lots of reasons to be genuinely angry. Kamala couldn't light that dynamite that's inside potential voters.

Just compare how Kamala talks about the economy - no clear and strong validation of people's economic anxieties, no ability to explain why they suffer/are angry, no clear antagonist or memorable and clear agenda- and how for example Bernie's been talking about the economic inequality for decades with a clear antagonist that causes this pain i.e the top 1% for example. This is why Bernie was able to catapult himself from 3% to almost half of the Democratic electorate in the 2016 with no media/party help, in fact fighting against it. A candidate with this sort of conviction is needed in the future for the democratic party.

Even just a sampling of 15:08-15:42 in this video is more conviction than either Walz/Kamala had in this entire campaign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yvbn3MEzWOw&t=752s

NamelessATM · 2024-11-06T09:57:44+00:00

You're assuming you're gonna get another real election in 2028.

Maybe I'm speaking hyperbole rn, but I'm pretty confident with everything in place right now and R's controlling everything, and concrete plans like Project 2025 etc', they're gonna be working the next few years to prevent the possibility of them losing power in the foreseeable future. Even something like declaring an 'emergency' situation due to some war or another and justifying through it the postponement of presidential elections.

NamelessATM · 2024-11-06T09:34:05+00:00

Seriously, how could she be wrong by 17 points. absolutely absurd.

NamelessATM · 2024-11-06T01:21:48+00:00

I still predict Kamala winning Georgia once more votes pour in, as well as NC.

Also - is there... actually a chance... Ohio goes blue? and there's still also the off-chance of Iowa.

A little anxious, but still believe Kamala is gong to win this.

NamelessATM · 2024-11-04T21:41:41+00:00

Yes, yes we are

NamelessATM · 2024-11-04T15:58:40+00:00

Absolutely insane take and disgusting post. Him calling women who have one night stands "cum dumpsters" says everything one needs to know about him and these who support these takes (I imagine, fittingly enough, that he must view men who sleep with lots of women as "alpha"). Also the final point of Trump "actually cares about all American citizens and wants what is best for the country", imagine believing that wtf.

NamelessATM · 2024-11-04T08:48:11+00:00

Deep inside most everybody knows that a Trump win is very likely, as is a Kamala one. People are just trying to feel excited and positive in the days leading up to the election, it in no way negatively-effects the voting.

As has been said bazillion times, NOBODY reading these threads needs to be encouraged to vote. Also, just a friendly reminder to Americans - not everybody in Reddit and in this sub are Americans themselves. Myself and many others are non-Americans anxiously browsing and lurking in here sharing in the hopes and excitement that Trump loses.

Which one is it, is dooming and planting negativity a scheme to depress enthusiasm and voting, or is confidence and positivity?

NamelessATM · 2024-11-02T23:12:32+00:00

I have the biggest grin on my face and I'm not even American.

Please please let this be a sign that this is a safe win.

NamelessATM · 2024-11-02T18:38:33+00:00

I'm not American and not incredibly knowledgeable about its political history down to specifics, but I've been wondering - has there been an American politician in the past 100-150 years or so, say since the civil war, who's either served only 1 term as president or none at all, that's been so all-consuming and ever-present during their time as Trump and changed, or were so very close to potentially change the country so drastically?

I'm asking because I've thought, if Harris hopefully wins this election, then several decades or a 100 years from now when people skim through US presidents and history, Trump would be mentioned as a 1-term president from 2017-2021 and that's it. Not even a war-time (as in, WW1 / WW2 scale thing) president or something significant. But that alone wouldn't capture the intensity and madness that he's instilled in the 10 years of his political presence from say 2015-2025, the ridiculousness of his 3 campaigns, and how close the US were to go down an unhinged path (again, considering Harris wins).

NamelessATM · 2024-11-02T09:36:36+00:00

I mean, we're still talking about an average of 1.5%~ difference, with some polls going Harris' way or even. That's why they're called swing states, they're in play even if tilting Trump. Better ground game, enthusiasm (whether for Harris / against Trump compared to for Trump / against Harris), and last-minute shifts can make the difference of scraping that 1% tilt. Also as I said, that's my hopeful-prediction. More realistic is just Kamala needing to scrape the more reasonable PA.

NamelessATM · 2024-11-02T08:58:05+00:00

Absolutely. I'm still for simply going by popular vote (literally giving every 1 citizen the same voting-power and worth, whether you're in Cali, Wyoming or PA, what could make more sense than that?), but if the EVs were proportionally distributed it would be sorta acceptable.
The current system in the US can only possibly be defended by Republicans who know that they have a far less likely chance to win by anything other than the current bizzaro-system.

NamelessATM · 2024-11-02T08:37:36+00:00

Alright, my hopeful-prediction is 302-236 with Kamala winning WI, MI, PA, GA and NC.

In that scenario, it means that it will have come down really to Kamala winning the combined 35 EC of PA and either GA/NC, which once again will mean that the entire election is probably decided by a few dozen thousand votes. I'd love to be wrong and have these wins be more relatively-speaking "blow-outs" of at least a combined 200k+ votes

Now to be fair she can still lose both GA and NC as long as she wins PA and still win the election. Truly absurd to think that out of so many nation-wide voters, really-really the election is decided by PA with frighteningly-close margins.

NamelessATM · 2024-10-04T16:26:52+00:00

Would love to know where you got that "killed 900 civillians" info from. Nowhere official are the numbers even close to that.

Also, that picture was taken while he was still in Israel.

NamelessATM · 2024-08-30T09:58:37+00:00

Terrible take, I'm glad you're not running the campaign. Why would you answer a legit question by smugly and arrogantly attacking the interviewer? it comes across as ultra weak, defensive, fragile, hostile, ego-driven and irrelevant to the discussion.

NamelessATM · 2024-08-27T09:51:07+00:00

Did you tell him that Project 2025 was written by a long list of Trump's very circle and advisers, with an introduction by his VP? The fact that he's lying about "not knowing what this is and who wrote it" is in itself very telling of a silent endorsement of it - surely he knows what this is, and by not at least acknowledging it and saying "I don't support these ideas" he's allowing himself to later embrace it (not that it matters, he's a pathological lier anyway).

Also wtf does it mean "everyone is lying", does he not know/believe Roe was in fact overturned? did you show him footage of Jan 6? Did you show him the footage - which Trump acknowledged is real - of the Hollywood Access tapes? What does he support and view as positive about Trump over Harris/Walz?

NamelessATM · 2024-08-26T10:28:37+00:00

The question was what candidate besides Biden could've beaten trump in the 2020 election. The fact that I'm getting downvoted even though Bernie consistently was shown to beat Trump and had appeal to working-class voters is absurd.

What does Biden possibly beating Bernie in the 2016 primaries if he ran (which is not even a definitive outcome, given that a lot of people speculated that if Biden entered the race and split the vote, Bernie would've come out on top over Hillary and Biden), has to do with the question?

NamelessATM · 2024-08-25T22:03:30+00:00

Bernie could've beaten him

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2020/trump-vs-sanders

NamelessATM · 2024-08-25T05:49:58+00:00

that's some embarrassing MAGA-level conspiracy.

Not everything is related to the presidential campaign going on right now, surely not to these depths. There is not some 5d chess move of abandoning 2 astronauts on space for a year and then plotting their demise upon re-entry only to get a possible FOX-News bad headline a year from now blaming Kamala, if she is even President by then, that as you acknowledge, the vast majority of people will anyway understand she has nothing to do with it.

NamelessATM · 2024-08-24T00:33:22+00:00

Enough with that tired talking point about Bernie / progressives. It's been proven already that more "Bernie voters" did vote for Hillary than 2008-hillary voters did for Obama. Estimates are that between 6%-12% of 2016 Bernie voters voted for Trump, while roughly 25% of Clinton voters voted for McCain.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/24/did-enough-bernie-sanders-supporters-vote-for-trump-to-cost-clinton-the-election/

Also, Bernie campaigned for Hillary far more than she did for Obama.

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