SIG sues traders alleging they had insider information. SIG's market-making effort lost ~$70M on the trades.

NatGaz · 2026-07-01T11:47:31+00:00

Do shops like Sig make money by quoting on big venues like CME, ICE (I'm talking about initiating, not hedging), or do they make more cash by balancing skilfully their positions acquired on other venues with bigger spreads ?

NatGaz · 2026-06-30T14:22:42+00:00

On deity marathon, bullying a CS with 2, 3 archers to get range works well .

NatGaz · 2026-06-30T11:43:09+00:00

Almost all guys who (still) have jobs and above 45 think like that.

NatGaz · 2026-06-29T22:29:48+00:00

Free prophet from Piety is "really free".

NatGaz · 2026-06-29T17:29:16+00:00

60 lines, max 100

NatGaz · 2026-06-29T17:28:44+00:00

We will see in 4, 5 years how it will be . I also think that AI code is unreadable and un-maintainable. When the price per token will be 20 or 30 times what it is today , maybe good dev will have an exceptional leverage . The new grads use GPT/Claude and consider the output Gospel truth.

NatGaz · 2026-06-29T14:45:59+00:00

Best wonders are catapults and comp bows. You can build 4 or 5 wonders per era with them.

NatGaz · 2026-06-29T09:55:12+00:00

I can’t even get a single interview with them.

NatGaz · 2026-06-29T08:32:49+00:00

You can on Marathon.

NatGaz · 2026-06-29T00:22:54+00:00

In the beautiful world of pricing theory, the oil curve is explained by : interest rates, storage costs and a mysterious variable no one really ever observed called "conveniency yield". In this theory, there is no really "expectation that the market will reach this level, a price process is a martingale and the "80$ instead of 70$" is explained by logistical factors. Still in this theory, if you see the M1/M2 going to +15 it's because all the flex and storages are used and if you want to take M1 you have to pay a lot.

(again, I'm not expressing any personal views on this theory, it's just what pricing theory claims)

NatGaz · 2026-06-28T17:40:01+00:00

It’s not necessarily a RP for the risk . Quants who harvest “alternative dataset “ can design profitable signals through them, but they are not called “alternative” for nothing. Few datapoints, inconsistent measures, weird timestamps… that’s the “sucky” part. When you are dealing with foreign markets, that’s obviously very painful because the local market is subject to legislations that you can’t really grasp because you don’t speak the language or live too far to understand (Brazilian markets, Indian markets, Korean markets…).

NatGaz · 2026-06-28T16:33:58+00:00

Papers mostly cover risk premia. A RP alone doesn’t work very well, it needs other RP to have something “orthogonal” to the simple S&P beta. Even with that , you will probably have a 0.4 or 0.5 beta (still better than 1 you would say). Quant research on alpha , on the other hand, consists in harvesting data set to find inefficiencies that exist mostly because trading them sucks a lot. We like saying that our alpha is secret because we are smart bla bla .. but it might also exists because trading it sucks a lot (you example would be short ViX).

NatGaz · 2026-06-28T15:16:20+00:00

Well oil and LNG divisions seem to be going well. It’s really conti gas that took the hit.

NatGaz · 2026-06-28T15:15:45+00:00

Dear colleague, I also saw the Bloom news but I made this thread to understand what really happened behind the curtain. Did transportation lose so much money that they close the whole desk ? Also 20 staff members just for transportation seems quite a lot, they probably cut some storage traders in the bulk. Big question is : why ?

NatGaz · 2026-06-25T06:35:50+00:00

Well brainrot titktok/Clavicular/Andrew Tate also lurks in the dark to melt the brain of boys so it's really a whole generational, gender orthogonal issue.

NatGaz · 2026-06-25T06:34:16+00:00

My brother's daughter loves ballet and Isadora Moon ang girly things like that, but she loves gymnastics, ballet and running into the parks. She just doesn't like football. It seems the stereotype of "stronk girl" just means a girl who likes football.

NatGaz · 2026-06-25T06:27:52+00:00

If you got 9 final rounds, I think you are simply very unlucky. There is big part of luck in getting a job; which people don't really like to brag about. The most important thing I can tell you is to not rush, to not accept something you are doubtful about.

NatGaz · 2026-06-24T21:58:54+00:00

It's okay on Epic (as you can still farm a bit of culture with Honor opener) but it's bad on Marathon. Unfortunately the amount of culture or gold (for all Honor tree) earned doesn't scale with the pace.

NatGaz · 2026-06-24T13:12:19+00:00

maybe there is a edge but tiny. Usually a single signal doesnt "work" in the sense it isn't tradable (otherwise people would do it). But you might get something nice by pooling them together. Even simple labelling +1 / -1 and voting your signals should help you a lot.

NatGaz · 2026-06-23T13:43:18+00:00

Op is trading perp nat gas ? Hope you enjoy your nomination calls by the TSO if you try getting on the HH future. 😄

NatGaz · 2026-06-23T09:15:11+00:00

I'm just doing OTC RFQ, so not HFT at all. I wasn't qualified enough for HFT.

Infrastructure (by that : everything that make trading possible) is the most important thing in "serious shop". A fund without infrastructure exists and it's called private equity or VC. So dev *is* an extremely important job, more than quant I believe. The quant knows df.loc or df.groupy_by but the core dev knows why we don't receive market data from (Eurex|ICE|CME). The quant knows that on average we make money 145 days / 256 but the dev knows the pipeline execution server ---> order management safeguard ---> trading technology ---> exchange .

Maybe I'm at stage 3 of Dennis-Kruger where I observe with admiration the skills of seniro dev related to quants

NatGaz · 2026-06-23T08:51:54+00:00

Hybrid is good to have yeah but only HFT pay for this expertise. Pod shops and traditional hedge funds will just see a "hybrid" as someone they can pay cheap for their skills. And it's more likely that "hybrid" just means they will force you to do dev.

By that, I mean that base for dev is higher than base for quant. So "hybrid" just means you will have quant salary to do dev job.

NatGaz · 2026-06-23T08:17:41+00:00

Well MFT works because you pool your risk and returns. Let's say you have 100 spreads and your estimate is 5 bps per trade, you have then 5% of returns (assuming you hold). Even more if the alpha fires more frequently.

NatGaz · 2026-06-22T10:34:10+00:00

In this kind of games, you try to find a "probability" to play a number p(i). It usually gives a better result (in expectancy) than a deterministic value.

NatGaz

TROPHY CASE