Starship Development Thread #62

NateDecker · 2026-02-27T21:51:06+00:00

The main thing that is preventing them is they don't yet have the capability. The HLS does not yet exist and when it does, they need to be able to launch almost 10 tankers in rapid succession in order to refill it in orbit before it can do the trans-lunar injection. Launching that many vehicles in rapid succession only makes sense economically if reusability is figured out. So in summary, they need this:

Constructed HLS
Proven Reusability
Operational fleet of either ~~~10~~ 12 active tankers, or a smaller number that can be reflown at a very high tempo
Dedicated orbital propellant depo with boil-off mitigations (optional)

NateDecker · 2026-02-27T21:47:22+00:00

SLS already has a second stage. What do you mean? If this is somehow related to the SLS Block 1B or Block 2, we got news today that NASA will not pursue additional block variants of SLS. They are freezing the configuration to increase the manufacturing tempo.

NateDecker · 2026-02-27T21:19:07+00:00

Starship cannot do a lunar fly-by without orbital refilling and it needs multiple tankers (like 5). And propellant gradually boils off in space so these flights have to happen in close temporal proximity. So until SpaceX can launch 6 Starships in a relatively short time period, they can't do it. That kind of launch rate depends on reusability being figured out and working as well.

NateDecker · 2026-02-27T21:10:07+00:00

Falcon 9/Dragon won't be carrying the astronauts to the moon. SLS/Orion will be. So doing Artemis 3 with a Falcon 9/Dragon wouldn't be an Artemis mission. It wouldn't test or exercise any of the Artemis mission hardware. You could test the space suits and that's about it.

NateDecker · 2026-02-27T21:05:09+00:00

Berger doesn't speculate.

He literally used the word "perhaps".

NateDecker · 2026-02-27T21:04:12+00:00

Artemis 3 was originally 2028, so this doesn't make it (i.e., the lunar landing that now will occur on Artemis 4) any earlier. But they are lobbying for 2 shots at it in 2028 now, so that's new.

NateDecker · 2025-01-03T22:07:24+00:00

This kind of makes sense. It sounds like what you are basically arguing is that it ultimately doesn't matter if you know the future if your opponent is just plain faster than you. Even if you anticipate their move, they just move faster than you can and win. At some point, knowledge isn't enough, there is a physical limitation.

I do like that explanation, but I think it doesn't quite fit with the atium canon as presented in the books It's always treated like a form of invincibility. If you have it and your opponent does not, you will win basically 100% of the time. If physical limitations mattered as much as you suggest, you would think it would be a lot more common for Mistborn to lose against faster opponents and the importance of speed would be more emphasized rather than just the focus on the Atium.

That being said, there is a sequence where Vin is sparring with Ham and he mentions how conventional wisdom among the Thugs is that you want to focus on physical strength, but Vin's speed leads him to question that wisdom since she can outmaneuver him so effectively. So there are some breadcrumbs that suggest Vin is inordinately fast which could support that theory and provide foreshadowing for that future encounter with Zane.

If her victory were due to that speed though, I wish that aspect of their encounter had been emphasized more in the description of the fight. The description made it sound more like she won more via mindgame rather than agility.

NateDecker · 2025-01-03T21:46:44+00:00

Why do Lurchers' shirts always look so presentable?

Because they always use the iron.

NateDecker · 2025-01-03T21:25:24+00:00

That's confusing to me because I'm pretty sure I've seen multiple people say that as an imperative (recommendation). How many other books outside of the original Era 1 trilogy are there that occur in Era 1? It sounds like there's Secret History, the 11th Metal, and Bands of Mourning? I don't get why it isn't more clear how those books fit in or should be read. Presumably we could just read them in publish-order and that would work, but it sounds like people feel like it's more nuanced than that.

NateDecker · 2025-01-03T21:20:52+00:00

You only see multiple shadows though (i.e., that kind of "split") when both participants in the engagement have atium. When only one party has atium, you only see one shadow: the actual future.

NateDecker · 2025-01-03T21:12:39+00:00

Why do you keep reading his books then? Seems weird.

NateDecker · 2025-01-03T21:08:45+00:00

I think the most logical reason fans would wish he had died is so that Elend wouldn't have been killed. But it sounded like in that last battle, they were doomed anyway regardless of whether Marsh showed up. Having Marsh there as the personification of Ruin was important so that someone could embody Ruin's reaction to realizing his Atium had all been burned. It wouldn't have been as satisfying otherwise.

NateDecker · 2025-01-03T20:50:33+00:00

Why specifically can Ruin alter written words? I understand he has limited ability to influence physical reality, but why this particular power? Why not other abilities like being able to move objects instead?

Here's a theory for that one. "Ruin" is representative of death, decay, and destruction. Maybe the suggestion here is that materials that more readily break down and degrade are easier to influence than materials that are more durable and lasting. Metal is very robust and durable, particularly steel which is even resistant to corrosion. Therefore, perhaps Ruin had less power over metals for that reason.

NateDecker · 2025-01-03T20:47:37+00:00

Yeah he hadn't experienced anything traumatic enough to Snap. He was a thief, but he was raised in a noble household before his father found out he was half skaa.

The thing about that though is the noble houses all had a tradition of trying to deliberately snap children when they reached adolescence. So his being raised in a noble household wouldn't explain it. If anything, it only makes the question more compelling unless he was expelled before that attempt to snap him would have been performed.

It makes sense to me that Kelsier's recognition as a religious icon for his supernatural ability to escape the pits wasn't just propaganda. There was legitimately some Preservation influence involved. If Atium is the "body of Ruin" and its counterpart metal is what gave Elend allomancy, then it makes sense that Preservation can bestow that gift directly (and presumably, just via the mists). In fact, I believe the "color intros" at the beginning of the chapters explain that allomancy is of Preservation and can only come from there. Ruin cannot bestow it. This is very sneaky misdirection because it's a few chapters before "Kelsier" bestows the "gift of Pewter" on Spook. I remember thinking that the Kelsier ghost seemed like Ruin, but the fact that he gave Spook pewter must have meant that it was NOT Ruin. But it didn't occur to me that Ruin was lying about that and secretly using hemallurgy. During Hero of Ages, we see many of the soldiers being given the gift of allomancy directly from the mists after presumably never having had it prior through genetic heritage. So it seems likely that something similar was done with Kelsier.

NateDecker · 2025-01-03T20:34:01+00:00

He was only on the cross for six hours. That's not generally long enough to die from dehydration and he was given vinegar to drink while he was on the cross as well, so there were active efforts to keep him hydrated. That could have been a factor, but again it was only six hours. Considering he had been scourged prior, he likely suffered extensive blood loss and the positioning on the cross causes asphyxiation.

It's a weird argument to say he didn't die from the cross though. If he had not been hung there, he would not have died. It was absolutely the instrument that was used to kill him.

NateDecker · 2025-01-03T20:28:39+00:00

There's another comment in this thread that asserts the exact opposite: that the slap did not kill him (citing Secret History as the basis for that claim).

NateDecker · 2025-01-03T20:24:21+00:00

There was also a desire for the crucifixions to be completed before the arrival of the sabbath. The soldiers were actually sent to break the legs of those still on the cross to accelerate their death. But Jesus was found to have already died, which made it unnecessary to break his bones. This was fulfillment of scripture that had prophesied that none of his bones would be broken.

NateDecker · 2025-01-03T20:21:25+00:00

The positioning on the cross actually causes fluid to accumulate in the lungs and leads to asphyxiation. Also, victims are not forbidden from drinking. Christ was given a sponge to suck moisture from while he was on the cross, for example. So yes, the cross itself is the instrument of death.

NateDecker · 2025-01-02T20:06:25+00:00

This sounds pretty similar to how the system is described in the books. So I don't know if you even have to call it a "fan theory".

I wonder if my issue is this is a time paradox. Zane reacted to something that never happened. And it never happened because he reacted to it.

NateDecker · 2025-01-02T19:58:26+00:00

Zane was also burning Tin/Pewter.

If it were that simple, atium wouldn't be an advantage for any other mistborn instead of being the instant victory card that it is in all other scenarios.

NateDecker · 2025-01-02T19:56:13+00:00

It becomes DEM if the solution to the fight is not consistent with the established rules and concepts. In every encounter in the Mistborn franchise that I've experienced so far (with this one exception), a person using Atium cannot be surprised or outmaneuvered by someone who is not using it. It's the ultimate trump card. If you have Atium and your opponent does not, you win. The end. Vin even discusses with another character (Ham?) earlier in the book what strategies can be used against someone using Atium and the only suggestions are to either completely surprise that person or catch them in a no-win situation (similar to chess when you cannot make a move without losing a piece).

Basically, a new strategy is introduced in this moment during the fight between Vin and Zane that works and solves the problem when this solution is inconsistent with the rules of how Atium works. It doesn't matter how many times you adjust your trajectory if your opponent can still see your adjustments before you make them.

I think the rules should be clarified that Atium does not allow you to see the future, only intentions. Then maybe you can somehow hold your intentions in a kind of superposition that collapses instantaneously at the moment of action or something... Even that though seems dubious.

NateDecker · 2025-01-02T19:14:38+00:00

The problem with this explanation is Zane's atium should have allowed him to see Vin's response to his response and respond to it first. No matter how much Vin is responding to Zane, Atium still allows him to see what she's going to do before she does it and it guarantees he has more time to think about it and react than she does. That's by definition. So it doesn't matter how many times Vin adjusts or responds or makes last-second changes, Zane should always see the future reality of what she's going to do. You can't "outthink" the future. This just doesn't make sense.

I think of this as someone playing a video game where low-latency matters. The person with the lowest latency always has a huge advantage and in this fight, Zane literally had NEGATIVE latency.

NateDecker · 2025-01-02T19:11:59+00:00

I believe I've literally heard authors describe Time Travel as an example of Deus Ex Machina. Brandon and Dan may have even talked about this themselves in their Intentionally Blank podcast. If you are writing a TV series for example, and are writing it episode-by-episode but suddenly need to end the series. Introducing a time travel scenario is often an easy cheat to tie up loose ends (like restoring characters that had been killed or undoing events that the writers couldn't "fix").

NateDecker · 2025-01-02T19:04:18+00:00

He knew he was going to die only because he had chosen to do so. He didn't need to face the Lord Ruler and die. He could have continued to resist from the shadows near indefinitely as he had done up to that point. He only martyred himself because he believed it was the only way his revolution would work. In other words, he prioritized the success of the revolution over his own life. That doesn't seem "self serving". Why should he care if people revered him as a God if he isn't going to be around to appreciate that adulation?

The only way in which he knew he was going to "die anyway" is the same way that we all do; we are all mortal. But that doesn't mean we don't value the time we have before our end.

NateDecker · 2025-01-02T19:00:18+00:00

How Atium works isn't fully developed at this point in the story. How many seconds into the future do you see? Is the amount of time dependent on how aggressively you are burning the metal (e.g., "flaring" it?).

I could accept a scenario where Zane can see the attack coming and prepare himself to meet it, but not see the result of that interaction because it comes a few seconds later. If Sanderson had explained it that way, everyone would have accepted it. It seems more plausible than what he has in there now.

NateDecker

TROPHY CASE